What are your expectations for Grayson Rodriguez in 2024?

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ll take @Can_of_corn’s side in part.  There’s no evidence that the style of a young  pitcher affects whether a good second half carries over to the next season more than for another style of pitcher.  At least, not yet.  

Where I part with @can_of_corn is that I don’t think giving one example means anything with respect to whether there’s a general tendency for good second half results to carry over for a young pitcher.  It needs to be researched more generally, which I may do sometime soon.  
 

I don't think one example means anything more than showing something isn't guaranteed to happen.  Which is all I was trying to do.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I thought in his best seasons Matusz was throwing 96-98?

No.  Low 90's for the most part. 

He was more of a throws hard enough for a lefty type.

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Wasn't the fall of Matusz mainly due to Showalter ordering him to quicken his delivery to the plate? My memory is that while Matusz never had outstanding velocity he was able to hide the ball so that his pitches were sneaky fast. But Buck was worried that he was too slow to the plate and runners would be able to steal on him at will, even with the Wieters howitzer at backstop. So both Matusz's wind-up and stretch deliveries were adjusted to stop the running game, which meant he was no longer able to hide the ball as well during his delivery. 

Between Brain Matusz and Jake Arrieta we did a bang up job helping those guys reach their peak.

Nitpick.  A pitchers windup wouldn’t be adjusted for the running game.

[Rbiggs2525]

Not a pitching expert but these are the things I think need improvement from Grayson. 
 

-Being able to throw inside

-Being able to locate low more often

-Being more athletic in delivery

-Hiding the ball a bit more

When I see him pitch I see everything Steven Strasberg had but refinement. 

[sportsfan8703]

36 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Not a pitching expert but these are the things I think need improvement from Grayson. 
 

-Being able to throw inside

-Being able to locate low more often

-Being more athletic in delivery

-Hiding the ball a bit more

When I see him pitch I see everything Steven Strasberg had but refinement. 

Other than command… I think all the things you mentioned come with age/experience. He also needs to realize our ballpark. RH hitters shouldn’t be getting free passes.

If there was one good thing that came out of that drubbing he took in Game 2 it’s that I bet he’s having a heck of a an offseason workout/prep plan. Dude has the frame to be an absolute stud. 

[Sports Guy]

3.50 or better ERA, 180ish IP.

Just hope he doesn’t need to get TJ surgery at some point.

[emmett16]

7 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Wasn't the fall of Matusz mainly due to Showalter ordering him to quicken his delivery to the plate? My memory is that while Matusz never had outstanding velocity he was able to hide the ball so that his pitches were sneaky fast. But Buck was worried that he was too slow to the plate and runners would be able to steal on him at will, even with the Wieters howitzer at backstop. So both Matusz's wind-up and stretch deliveries were adjusted to stop the running game, which meant he was no longer able to hide the ball as well during his delivery. 

Between Brain Matusz and Jake Arrieta we did a bang up job helping those guys reach their peak.

It was interesting to go back and look at Matusz’ numbers on baseball savant.  He dropped 3.3mph from 2010 to 2011.  Pure speculation but I imagine he 1. Either got hurt throwing the 175ip in 2010 (most he ever threw) 2. Didn’t put in the work in the off-season 3. Or, got hurt in off-season trying to push himself.  Taking 2011 on the chin for sure messed with his head (10.69 era) and was never really the same after.  Couple that with an organization that didn’t know how to optimize the tools/talent the pitchers were working with and the rest is history.  That was a time the Os we’re pushing “establish the fastball” and “everything else plays off the fastball” which for a guy that didn’t bring the heat, was likely a recipe for failure.  He could spin it pretty well and a different approach maybe could have benefited him. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It was interesting to go back and look at Matusz’ numbers on baseball savant.  He dropped 3.3mph from 2010 to 2011.  Pure speculation but I imagine he 1. Either got hurt throwing the 175ip in 2010 (most he ever threw) 2. Didn’t put in the work in the off-season 3. Or, got hurt in off-season trying to push himself. 

There were whispers of no. 2 around here, though I don’t know if there was any substance to them.   Then in subsequent years he was working out with Brady Anderson in the offseason.  

[Jim'sKid26]

How did this thread turn into a review of Brian Matusz' failed Oriole career? 

[dystopia]

48 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

How did this thread turn into a review of Brian Matusz' failed Oriole career? 

CoC trolling as usual.

[emmett16]

46 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

How did this thread turn into a review of Brian Matusz' failed Oriole career? 

That's likely my fault 

The thing that sticks out to me with Grayson's second half is the control/command we saw with pitches (2.4/BB9 over 76.2) and while throwing strikes, the opposition slugged .306 while only hitting 3 HR.  That tells me that his stuff was playing at the MLB level.  He was throwing strikes, and the opposition couldn't put together good swings against him.  So, again, for me the only thing holding him back is health.  When he struggled, he was getting cute with location and started doing things differently than he had done in the past.  His minor league BB/9 was 3.16 so I'd expect some regression from his incredible second half, which is why I think he will pitch somewhere around 3.5 era next year.  But I wouldn't bet against him doing much better.  

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

CoC trolling as usual.

I don't think he was trolling.  He was trying to make a valid point.  And I have to admit, I quite enjoyed the trip down memory road and looking at how an old Oriole's career turned out.  

[LA2]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Naw, I just thought it amusing that you went all round numbers and then exact with the W/L.

 

Although there are few possible round-number choices in W/L: 0-0 10-0 0-10 10-10 20-10 10-20, none of which seem likely, although if forced to choose, most posters here would select 20-10--and be chagrined by 10-10 or 10-20.

Edited December 17, 2023 by LA2

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

That's likely my fault 

The thing that sticks out to me with Grayson's second half is the control/command we saw with pitches (2.4/BB9 over 76.2) and while throwing strikes, the opposition slugged .306 while only hitting 3 HR.  That tells me that his stuff was playing at the MLB level.  He was throwing strikes, and the opposition couldn't put together good swings against him.  So, again, for me the only thing holding him back is health.  When he struggled, he was getting cute with location and started doing things differently than he had done in the past.  His minor league BB/9 was 3.16 so I'd expect some regression from his incredible second half, which is why I think he will pitch somewhere around 3.5 era next year.  But I wouldn't bet against him doing much better.  

Looking at the Baseball Savant data: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/grayson-rodriguez-680570?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Grayson threw 5 pitches last year. 4SFB (49.6%), SL (14.%), CB (8.2%), CH (22.4%), and Cutter (5.8%).

The 4SFB was at 97.4 mph on average but was his least effective pitch. They have his FB run value at 8% which is very poor. While his Breaking ball run value is at 77% (well above average) and his Off speed run value at 93% which is "great." Indeed, his Whiff% and put away% are FB: 24.1/16.8;  CH: 28.3/18.2; SL:34.1/21; CB: 28.1/25.5 and Cutter 14.9/5.6.  Seems to me like the cutter is not a weapon and should be shelved. 

His SL is just a great pitch. He threw it 297 times and did not give up a HR. Batters slugged 0.172 on the pitch and BA against was 0.155. Seems like he needs to throw that pitch more. 

Compare that to his FB. He threw it 1043 times and gave up 8 HRs, the most of any pitch. BA against was 0.342 and SLG against 0.535. If you look at the location heat map you can see why. The hottest area is middle-middle; exact where you do not want to throw a 4sFB. Also he throws a very flat FB with very little vertical movement with elite extension and velocity. He needs to throw it up in the zone more. Something I think he did much better in the second half of 2023.

So I think he needs to do 3 things better in 2024:

1. Throw his SL and CH more. His SL is a weapon against RH batters and his CH is effective against LH batters.

2. Throw the 4SFB a bit less but throw it up in the zone with a focus of hitting the top of the zone consistently.

3. Shelve the cutter or only throw it rarely. 

This is just my $0.02. Take it for what it's worth...

Edited December 17, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[btdart20]

Cole was under Ray Searage’s “pitch to contact” tutelage in Pittsburg.  Cole improved so much when he went to Houston and NYY.

As for Grayson’s 2024 expectations:  185+ IP, 15+ W, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 250+ Ks

Not all SSS are created equal.