Cedric Mullins: 2023 Year in Review and 2024 Forecast

[Sports Guy]

Mullins was hitting lefties very well before the injuries.  Now, maybe he tails off vs lefties anyway but I think if he stays healthy, he should have a nice year and we won’t need to worry about platooning him…maybe he sits vs the toughest lefties at times (mainly because he shouldn’t play 162 games and that’s where you can buy those days off).

[Otter]

17 hours ago, LookinUp said:

 

I'd argue Mullins boom/bust spread is about as big as anyone's on the team. If he can stay healthy for a full year, I can see him putting up one more monster year (e.g., well above 3.5 WAR). If not, you're looking at 1.5-2.5 WAR like this year, or even worse if his decline is precipitous.

I don't necessarily buy the spring speed stuff. He clearly wasn't right for much of the year. I'm not saying that his speed isn't declining, but I don't think it is 100% declining as fast as it might look.

That was my first thought as well; he's looking slower mainly because of the injuries last year.  But then you look at the numbers and see his speed has consistently declined every year since 2018.  Maybe the numbers don't seem dramatic at first glance, but when you compare them to his peers it is a significant decline and something to be concerned with as he ages.

[Frobby]

I’m not too worried that Mullins’ speed will be too big an issue during his remaining two years with the team.  Despite any loss of speed last year, his defensive metrics were still mostly plus and he stole 19 of 22 bases despite missing 44 games with his injuries and probably being hampered a bit when he returned.  

The question is, will Mullins avoid similar injuries this year?   He was super durable in 2021 and 2022, playing in 159 and 156 games.  So, it’s certainly not a given that the injuries will recur, but we’ll see.   Hopefully the trainers will have him on a good stretching regimen.   
 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t say Mullins’ .708 vs. LHP was bad al all.  It was a huge improvement over 2022.   Are they going to platoon Gunnar, who had a .618 OPS against lefties?   

 

Gunnar is starting his career and I expect him to get better vs lefties.   Mullins last two years vs lefties has not been good.   You say 708 is not bad.  But if the O's have someone that can do better and play good defense it may cause Mullins problems.

This is not to say that Mullins will not get a chance to play  vs lefties.  But if he does not improve he could become a platoon player.   He was for part of the 2023 season.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gunnar is starting his career and I expect him to get better vs lefties.   Mullins last two years vs lefties has not been good.   You say 708 is not bad.  But if the O's have someone that can do better and play good defense it may cause Mullins problems.

This is not to say that Mullins will not get a chance to play  vs lefties.  But if he does not improve he could become a platoon player.   He was for part of the 2023 season.

He was a platoon player for part of 2023?    When?

[btdart20]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gunnar is starting his career and I expect him to get better vs lefties.   Mullins last two years vs lefties has not been good.   You say 708 is not bad.  But if the O's have someone that can do better and play good defense it may cause Mullins problems.

This is not to say that Mullins will not get a chance to play  vs lefties.  But if he does not improve he could become a platoon player.   He was for part of the 2023 season.

The bigger issue is that only so many hitters can be platooned with a 13-player depth chart. 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He was a platoon player for part of 2023?    When?

Aug 25th, Sept 5th, 6th, 9th, 13th, 28th vs lefties.

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Aug 25th, Sept 5th, 6th, 9th, 13th, 28th vs lefties.

Ok.  So for basically one week.  I guess a week is a part of the season.