Cedric Mullins: 2023 Year in Review and 2024 Forecast

[Frobby]

Today we move from LF to CF and Cedric Mullins.   In an injury-marred campaign, Mullins final line was: 454 PA, 404 AB, 51 R, 94 H, 23  2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 19 SB, 3 CS, 43 BB, 101 K's, .233/.305/.416, 101 OPS+, 2.8 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR.   Defensively, he was rated at +7 Rdrs, +2 Rtot, -1.4 UZR, +6 OAA.  Here's how he performed across the nine 18-game segments (all figures are cumulative):

rWAR	Rdrs	OPS	fWAR	UZR	wOBA	xwOBA
0.5	-1	0.761	0.7	-1.8		
0.7	-4	0.780	1.1	-3.4	0.345	0.310
1.8	-1	0.835	1.8	-1.2	0.362	0.318
1.8	-2	0.835	1.8	-3.1	0.362	0.319	On IL for the entire segment
2.1	0	0.797	1.9	-2.7	0.345	0.309	On IL for 2 games
2.3	1	0.801	1.8	-4.7	0.347	0.313	On IL for 17 games
2.2	2	0.760	1.4	-4.7	0.326	0.297	On IL for 7 games
2.8	4	0.769	1.9	-2.8	0.330	0.291
2.8	7	0.721	1.8	-1.4	0.311	0.288

As reflected above, Mullins' first abductor/groin strain came at the worst possible time, as he was red hot at the time, having posted a .946 OPS over his prior 17 games.  When Mullins returned, he was ice cold at first (.502 OPS first 13 games back), and seemed to have just turned the corner (6 for 10 over three games) when the second strain occurred.   After Mullins finally returned for good on August 11, he never really did find his form, as his OPS dropped from .801 at the time of the second injury to 721 at season's end.  However, as shown below, he did have some huge moments down the stretch.   

While Mullins' overall numbers were disappointing, he was at his best in the clutch, posting a .320/.393/.631 slash line with runners in scoring position.   That resulted in Mullins garnering a career-high 74 RBI.   On the other hand, the long-time leadoff hitter hit very poorly when leading off an inning, registering a .197/.266/.291 slash line overall in those situations, and an even worse .191/.262/.191 when leading off the game.  As a result, Brandon Hyde yanked him from the leadoff spot in early July, and Mullins only batted leadoff once over the final 80 games of the season.

On area in which Mullins improved in 2023 was hitting LHP (.233/.310/.398), after he had struggled badly in 2022 against southpaws (.209/.265/.313).    However, his performance against RHP (.233/.304/.422) was not as good as in 2022 (.279/.340/.441).  Defensively, Mullins had a rough start but, like Hays, righted the ship and ended up having a very solid year in the field, by most measures.

Best 5 Games

- August 13: Without a doubt, the game O's fans will always remember for Mullins in 2024 was the August 13 game in Seattle.   In that game, Mullins entered the game as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning and took over in CF.   In the 9th, he robbed Ty France of a home run with a spectacular leaping catch at the wall that kept Seattle from tying the game.   It looked like a game saver, but unfortunately the next batter hit a homer where not even Mullins could reach it.   No matter - Mullins came up in the 10th with a runner on, hit a long fly ball that was out but barely foul, and then cranked a no-doubter 2-run homer that ended up winning the game.   It was like something out of The Natural.   

- May 21: 5 for 6 with two doubles and 3 RBI in an 8-3 win at Toronto

- May 12: Mullins hit for the cycle with 3 RBI in a 6-3 win versus the Pirates

- April 16: 3 for 5 with a triple and 4 RBI in an 8-4 win in Chicago against the White Sox

- Sept. 18: 2 for 5 with a double, a HR and 4 RBI in Houston, including a 3-run jack in the 9th that gave the O's the lead.

5 Biggest Hits, by WPA

- Sept. 18, 9th inning 3-run homer in Houston that turned a 7-5 deficit to into an 8-7 lead (.657 WPA, the highest leverage hit for any Oriole all season.

- Sept. 11, 5th inning grand slam that turned a 5-4 deficit into an 8-5 lead (.322 WPA)

- August 13, 10th inning two-run homer that gave the O's a 2-run lead, after Mullins had robbed Ty France of a homer in the 9th (.299 WPA)

- Sept. 2, 3-run homer in the 4th inning that gave the O's a 5-0 lead (.277 WPA)

- April 27, RBI triple in the 7th inning that tied the game (.246 WPA)

Best Defensive Plays

Best catch, in my estimation: August 13 against Seattle (bonus footage of Mullins' game-winning homer too)

Best catch by catch probability (tie): April 14 at the White Sox, September 14 versus Tampa Bay.  (How these two plays are tied, I'll never know.)

Best outfield assist: See the 4th play on this video.

2024 Prognosis

Mullins' OPS+, rWAR and fWAR have trended down each of the last two seasons, but it's hard to parse how much of the 2023 downturn was due to his injuries.   If healthy, I would bet Mullins rebounds to a good degree, but is he now going to be prone to this kind of injury?   Let's hope not.  Here are some third party projections:

Marcel: 495 PA, .260/.329/.446, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 23 SB, 5 CS

Steamer: 599 PA, .250/.318/.414, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 27 SB, 8 CS

ZiPS: 571 PA, .258/.322/.425, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 23 SB, 6 CS.  ZiPS' median OPS+ projection for Mullins is 107, with an 80th percentile projection of 126 and 20th percentile of 87.  Overall, very similar to Hays, but with more speed.

Again, I can't argue too much with these.  I don't think anyone expects Mullins to reach his 2021 level again, but a bit of a rebound from 2023 is reasonable to expect if Mullins stays healthy.  (Note that Mullins posted a .721 OPS in both 2022 and 2023, but the league offensive environment was better in 2023, so his OPS+ dropped from 107 to 101.)   The ZiPS projection looks very reasonable to me.

 

 

[Otter]

Excellent summary.  The thing I'm most concerned moving forward is that his sprint speed has declined every year since 2018.  From 2018-2023, he's gone from 95th percentile sprint speed to 68th percentile sprint speed.  Even more telling is his position rank that's gone from 15th to 53rd in that time.  That's concerning for a CF whose offensive and defensive game relies a lot on speed.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cedric-mullins-656775?stats=statcast-r-running-mlb

 

 

[Spy Fox]

I'm interested to see if they reinstall him as the leadoff hitter to start the year, or if they decide those days are over and continue with the Gunnar/Adley approach. 

[Moose Milligan]

It's all about the health with him.  If he stays healthy, I can see a 3.5 WAR season.  

I'd like to see him batting leadoff.  

27 minutes ago, Otter said:

Excellent summary.  The thing I'm most concerned moving forward is that his sprint speed has declined every year since 2018.  From 2018-2023, he's gone from 95th percentile sprint speed to 68th percentile sprint speed.  Even more telling is his position rank that's gone from 15th to 53rd in that time.  That's concerning for a CF whose offensive and defensive game relies a lot on speed.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cedric-mullins-656775?stats=statcast-r-running-mlb

 

 

Hard to ignore this, though.  

[Fiver6565]

Just wanted to comment and bump this because its excellent work by Frobby.  I need to go to page 2 to find his Austin Hays one, which I haven't looked at yet but certainly will after reading this one.  So thanks to Frobby!

I love me some Ced but those sprint speed numbers pretty clearly illustrate why the Bradfield pick last year might prove to be a quite important one.  There really aren't any other true CFers anywhere in the organization - at least not at the full season levels.

The Seattle game is one of the most memorable individual late inning performances you will ever see.  A stunning 10 minutes or so.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/23/2024 at 2:44 PM, Spy Fox said:

I'm interested to see if they reinstall him as the leadoff hitter to start the year, or if they decide those days are over and continue with the Gunnar/Adley approach. 

Just my hunch, but the Orioles seem to be very keen on having their two best OBP guys at #1 and #2. Until Holliday is deemed ready, I think those two remain at the top of the order. Once Holliday arrives, Gunnar probably move to #3 with Adley staying at #2.

[Aristotelian]

I have a bad feeling about Cedric this year. Seems like the injuries are getting more frequent and the slumps longer. Looked absolutely gassed down the stretch and in the playoffs. Maybe he comes back fresh but right now I'd be pretty ecstatic for him to hit those projections.

[Spy Fox]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Just my hunch, but the Orioles seem to be very keen on having their two best OBP guys at #1 and #2. Until Holliday is deemed ready, I think those two remain at the top of the order. Once Holliday arrives, Gunnar probably move to #3 with Adley staying at #2.

That's my guess too, and what I'd do in their shoes to start the year. 

Do you think Holliday is likely to be given a shot at leadoff as soon as he's called up?

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Just wanted to comment and bump this because its excellent work by Frobby.  I need to go to page 2 to find his Austin Hays one, which I haven't looked at yet but certainly will after reading this one.  So thanks to Frobby!

I love me some Ced but those sprint speed numbers pretty clearly illustrate why the Bradfield pick last year might prove to be a quite important one.  There really aren't any other true CFers anywhere in the organization - at least not at the full season levels.

The Seattle game is one of the most memorable individual late inning performances you will ever see.  A stunning 10 minutes or so.

Let’s see if  @Tony-OH  brings up Josh Hart but I say watch out for Matthew Etzel as the #2 CF prospect in the system.  Fabian isn’t toast yet either but he might be if he can’t make more contact in AA.

If Cedric can stay healthy , I expect a good year.

Edited January 24 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let’s see if  @Tony-OH  brings up Josh Hart but I say watch out for Matthew Etzel as the #2 CF prospect in the system.  Fabian isn’t toast yet either but he might be if he can’t make more contact in AA.

If Cedric can stay healthy , I expect a good year.

Haha, I like Etzel already more than I liked Hart and I'm not sure Etzel is more than a 4th outfielder. 

[LookinUp]

On 1/23/2024 at 2:54 PM, Moose Milligan said:

It's all about the health with him.  If he stays healthy, I can see a 3.5 WAR season.  

I'd like to see him batting leadoff.  

Hard to ignore this, though.  

 

49 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I have a bad feeling about Cedric this year. Seems like the injuries are getting more frequent and the slumps longer. Looked absolutely gassed down the stretch and in the playoffs. Maybe he comes back fresh but right now I'd be pretty ecstatic for him to hit those projections.

I'd argue Mullins boom/bust spread is about as big as anyone's on the team. If he can stay healthy for a full year, I can see him putting up one more monster year (e.g., well above 3.5 WAR). If not, you're looking at 1.5-2.5 WAR like this year, or even worse if his decline is precipitous.

I don't necessarily buy the spring speed stuff. He clearly wasn't right for much of the year. I'm not saying that his speed isn't declining, but I don't think it is 100% declining as fast as it might look.

Edited January 24 by LookinUp

[wildcard]

On 1/23/2024 at 2:03 PM, Frobby said:

Today we move from LF to CF and Cedric Mullins.   In an injury-marred campaign, Mullins final line was: 454 PA, 404 AB, 51 R, 94 H, 23  2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 19 SB, 3 CS, 43 BB, 101 K's, .233/.305/.416, 101 OPS+, 2.8 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR.   Defensively, he was rated at +7 Rdrs, +2 Rtot, -1.4 UZR, +6 OAA.  Here's how he performed across the nine 18-game segments (all figures are cumulative):

rWAR	Rdrs	OPS	fWAR	UZR	wOBA	xwOBA
0.5	-1	0.761	0.7	-1.8		
0.7	-4	0.780	1.1	-3.4	0.345	0.310
1.8	-1	0.835	1.8	-1.2	0.362	0.318
1.8	-2	0.835	1.8	-3.1	0.362	0.319	On IL for the entire segment
2.1	0	0.797	1.9	-2.7	0.345	0.309	On IL for 2 games
2.3	1	0.801	1.8	-4.7	0.347	0.313	On IL for 17 games
2.2	2	0.760	1.4	-4.7	0.326	0.297	On IL for 7 games
2.8	4	0.769	1.9	-2.8	0.330	0.291
2.8	7	0.721	1.8	-1.4	0.311	0.288

As reflected above, Mullins' first abductor/groin strain came at the worst possible time, as he was red hot at the time, having posted a .946 OPS over his prior 17 games.  When Mullins returned, he was ice cold at first (.502 OPS first 13 games back), and seemed to have just turned the corner (6 for 10 over three games) when the second strain occurred.   After Mullins finally returned for good on August 11, he never really did find his form, as his OPS dropped from .801 at the time of the second injury to 721 at season's end.  However, as shown below, he did have some huge moments down the stretch.   

While Mullins' overall numbers were disappointing, he was at his best in the clutch, posting a .320/.393/.631 slash line with runners in scoring position.   That resulted in Mullins garnering a career-high 74 RBI.   On the other hand, the long-time leadoff hitter hit very poorly when leading off an inning, registering a .197/.266/.291 slash line overall in those situations, and an even worse .191/.262/.191 when leading off the game.  As a result, Brandon Hyde yanked him from the leadoff spot in early July, and Mullins only batted leadoff once over the final 80 games of the season.

On area in which Mullins improved in 2023 was hitting LHP (.233/.310/.398), after he had struggled badly in 2022 against southpaws (.209/.265/.313).    However, his performance against RHP (.233/.304/.422) was not as good as in 2022 (.279/.340/.441).  Defensively, Mullins had a rough start but, like Hays, righted the ship and ended up having a very solid year in the field, by most measures.

Best 5 Games

- August 13: Without a doubt, the game O's fans will always remember for Mullins in 2024 was the August 13 game in Seattle.   In that game, Mullins entered the game as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning and took over in CF.   In the 9th, he robbed Ty France of a home run with a spectacular leaping catch at the wall that kept Seattle from tying the game.   It looked like a game saver, but unfortunately the next batter hit a homer where not even Mullins could reach it.   No matter - Mullins came up in the 10th with a runner on, hit a long fly ball that was out but barely foul, and then cranked a no-doubter 2-run homer that ended up winning the game.   It was like something out of The Natural.   

- May 21: 5 for 6 with two doubles and 3 RBI in an 8-3 win at Toronto

- May 12: Mullins hit for the cycle with 3 RBI in a 6-3 win versus the Pirates

- April 16: 3 for 5 with a triple and 4 RBI in an 8-4 win in Chicago against the White Sox

- Sept. 18: 2 for 5 with a double, a HR and 4 RBI in Houston, including a 3-run jack in the 9th that gave the O's the lead.

5 Biggest Hits, by WPA

- Sept. 18, 9th inning 3-run homer in Houston that turned a 7-5 deficit to into an 8-7 lead (.657 WPA, the highest leverage hit for any Oriole all season.

- Sept. 11, 5th inning grand slam that turned a 5-4 deficit into an 8-5 lead (.322 WPA)

- August 13, 10th inning two-run homer that gave the O's a 2-run lead, after Mullins had robbed Ty France of a homer in the 9th (.299 WPA)

- Sept. 2, 3-run homer in the 4th inning that gave the O's a 5-0 lead (.277 WPA)

- April 27, RBI triple in the 7th inning that tied the game (.246 WPA)

Best Defensive Plays

Best catch, in my estimation: August 13 against Seattle (bonus footage of Mullins' game-winning homer too)

Best catch by catch probability (tie): April 14 at the White Sox, September 14 versus Tampa Bay.  (How these two plays are tied, I'll never know.)

Best outfield assist: See the 4th play on this video.

2024 Prognosis

Mullins' OPS+, rWAR and fWAR have trended down each of the last two seasons, but it's hard to parse how much of the 2023 downturn was due to his injuries.   If healthy, I would bet Mullins rebounds to a good degree, but is he now going to be prone to this kind of injury?   Let's hope not.  Here are some third party projections:

Marcel: 495 PA, .260/.329/.446, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 23 SB, 5 CS

Steamer: 599 PA, .250/.318/.414, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 27 SB, 8 CS

ZiPS: 571 PA, .258/.322/.425, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 23 SB, 6 CS.  ZiPS' median OPS+ projection for Mullins is 107, with an 80th percentile projection of 126 and 20th percentile of 87.  Overall, very similar to Hays, but with more speed.

Again, I can't argue too much with these.  I don't think anyone expects Mullins to reach his 2021 level again, but a bit of a rebound from 2023 is reasonable to expect if Mullins stays healthy.  (Note that Mullins posted a .721 OPS in both 2022 and 2023, but the league offensive environment was better in 2023, so his OPS+ dropped from 107 to 101.)   The ZiPS projection looks very reasonable to me.

 

 

I think Mullins has worked himself into a platoon role.  If he can stay healthy he may be able to repeat his 2022  (781 OPS) vs RHP.   But his two bad seasons hitting vs lefties may have caught up to him.   

I think Mateo works out in CF in ST and if he looks good he will bring his 746 OPS vs lefties in 2023 to a platoon CF role.   With Gunnar, Ortiz and Holliday on the team at some point in 2024 Mateo is probably not needed at SS but he can be useful in CF.

[sportsfan8703]

The leg injuries really slowed him down, but speed and stolen bases, are sort of his gig. So hopefully he can stay healthy this year and have a massive numbers season. 20-40

[wse120372]

13 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Mullins has worked himself into a platoon role.  If he can stay healthy he may be able to repeat his 2022  (781 OPS) vs RHP.   But his two bad seasons hitting vs lefties may have caught up to him.   

I think Mateo works out in CF in ST and if he looks good he will bring his 746 OPS vs lefties in 2023 to a platoon CF role.   With Gunnar, Ortiz and Holliday on the team at some point in 2024 Mateo is probably not needed at SS but he can be useful in CF.

This makes so much sense when it comes to roster construction. Mateo playing a good centerfield would be big. 

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Mullins has worked himself into a platoon role.  If he can stay healthy he may be able to repeat his 2022  (781 OPS) vs RHP.   But his two bad seasons hitting vs lefties may have caught up to him.   

I think Mateo works out in CF in ST and if he looks good he will bring his 746 OPS vs lefties in 2023 to a platoon CF role.   With Gunnar, Ortiz and Holliday on the team at some point in 2024 Mateo is probably not needed at SS but he can be useful in CF.

I wouldn’t say Mullins’ .708 vs. LHP was bad al all.  It was a huge improvement over 2022.   Are they going to platoon Gunnar, who had a .618 OPS against lefties?