Keith Law Top 100

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree with your concerns.  Bradfield will be an interesting guy to follow.  The fact that the O’s thought enough of him to draft him in the first round gives me hope that he’ll be more than Myles Straw.

 

For whatever reason TZ has Brett Butler as an absolute butcher in the outfield.  Bradfield's defense is likely to be elite once he reaches the Majors.   If he can pull off Butler's batting performance and his fielding is as advertised, then that's probably pretty close to a HOF career.

 

Side note, Butler was one of my favorite non-Orioles growing up.  He was kind of like Ichiro from the previous generation.

 

Hell, Ichiro is a pretty good comp too, especially consdering his defense was elite.

 

Ichiro's career batting runs and wRC+ are both lower than Butler's despite having 400 more games.  He made up the difference and then some because he was 125 runs better in fielding and 100 runs better in baserunning.

Edited February 7 by Hallas

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Hallas said:

 

For whatever reason TZ has Brett Butler as an absolute butcher in the outfield.  Bradfield's defense is likely to be elite once he reaches the Majors.   If he can pull off Butler's batting performance and his fielding is as advertised, then that's probably pretty close to a HOF career.

 

Side note, Butler was one of my favorite non-Orioles growing up.  He was kind of like Ichiro from the previous generation.

 

Hell, Ichiro is a pretty good comp too, especially consdering his defense was elite.

 

Ichiro's career batting runs and wRC+ are both lower than Butler's despite having 400 more games.  He made up the difference and then some because he was 125 runs better in fielding and 100 runs better in baserunning.

I hadn’t noticed how poorly Butier did in TZ, the only advanced metric for defense available from that time on BB-ref.  I’m surprised he accumulated as much rWAR as he did despite that.  

As to Ichiro, we should never forget that he spent many of his best years in Japan and played in the US well past his prime. He hit .331/.376/.430 his first 10 years in the majors and could have had several more years like that if he hadn’t been playing in Japan.  Then he kept playing until age 45 over here, another ten years, and that dragged his final US career stats down a long ways.  He was a much better hitter than Butler in his prime.  

(Just noticed that Butler is two days younger than me.  6/15/57.   I’m old!)

 

[CP0861]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think people are so amazed by Holliday’s meteoric rise through the minors last year that they can’t get their head around the idea that at 20 years old he might not be ready to be a dominant player in MLB.   

ZiPS is projecting both Adley and Gunnar to be significantly more valuable than Holliday over each of the next three seasons.  I’m not saying ZiPS is right, but there’s plenty of reason to think we might need to tap the brakes on Holliday just a bit.  
 

I never said anything about him being "ready to be a dominant" player, nor did I imply he'll be better than Adley or Gunnar "soon" (although I don't think it's out of the question in the not too distant future)....not sure why you're adding words and taking that angle in your response. I simply stated an opinion that some fans may be so mesmerized with Gunnar that they can't imagine anyone else. It's a good problem to have. In my opinion, Holliday is ready and I want the best roster from day 1.

And please tell me what is the "plenty of reason" to tap the brakes on Holliday.

 

Edited February 7 by CP0861

[Hank Scorpio]

2 hours ago, CP0861 said:

I never said anything about him being "ready to be a dominant" player, nor did I imply he'll be better than Adley or Gunnar "soon" (although I don't think it's out of the question in the not too distant future)....not sure why you're adding words and taking that angle in your response. I simply stated an opinion that some fans may be so mesmerized with Gunnar that they can't imagine anyone else. It's a good problem to have. In my opinion, Holliday is ready and I want the best roster from day 1.

And please tell me what is the "plenty of reason" to tap the brakes on Holliday.

 

I guess if you want to nitpick, it's because we haven't really seen the kid have to adjust a whole lot. At the big league level, he's going to have to make adjustments. It's baseball.

There's no harm in giving him a few more at bats at Norfolk. 

Probably also no harm putting him out at second base either. 

 

[CP0861]

25 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I guess if you want to nitpick, it's because we haven't really seen the kid have to adjust a whole lot. At the big league level, he's going to have to make adjustments. It's baseball.

There's no harm in giving him a few more at bats at Norfolk. 

Probably also no harm putting him out at second base either. 

 

 

I get the nitpicking. I was asking for the aforementioned "plenty of reason" not nitpicking.

We haven't seen him adjust to a whole lot? Didn't he just play in all 3 milb levels last year and look fantastic while doing it? That's not MLB pitching, I get it, but you don't rip comfortably through 3 levels like that if you aren't able to make adjustments. He succeeded at 4 levels within about 7 months last year, including MLB ST (yes, sss along with AAA). I don't think his ability to make adjustments is of any concern. And yes, of course he could struggle at MLB, but then again (and as we've seen) so can guys who've spent a year or two at AAA.

May or may not be OD, but we'll see soon enough.

Edited February 7 by CP0861

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

 

I get the nitpicking. I was asking for the aforementioned "plenty of reason" not nitpicking.

We haven't seen him adjust to a whole lot? Didn't he just play in all 3 milb levels last year and look fantastic while doing it? That's not MLB pitching, I get it, but you don't rip comfortably through 3 levels like that if you aren't able to make adjustments. He succeeded at 4 levels last year, including MLB ST (yes, sss along with AAA). Of all things to nitpick, his ability to make adjustments seems like a stretch to me.

I guess my point is that he was never really mired in a huge slump or anything. That will happen eventually and maybe they want to see how he reacts. 

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I guess my point is that he was never really mired in a huge slump or anything. That will happen eventually and maybe they want to see how he reacts. 

If they want to see how he reacts to a long slump I would say there’s only one level where that’s going to happen and it’s not AAA.

[Hank Scorpio]

Just now, RZNJ said:

If they want to see how he reacts to a long slump I would say there’s only one level where that’s going to happen and it’s not AAA.

Yessir, I generally agree with that.

He just might be that good. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Yessir, I generally agree with that.

He just might be that good. 

 

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Yessir, I generally agree with that.

He just might be that good. 

He hit .226 in June at Aberdeen with a .702 OPS in 105 PA.  He bounced back pretty good.

[Hank Scorpio]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

He hit .226 in June at Aberdeen with a .702 OPS in 105 PA.  He bounced back pretty good.

Grazie. I was too lazy/busy to look. 

[Jammer7]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If they want to see how he reacts to a long slump I would say there’s only one level where that’s going to happen and it’s not AAA.

Yeah, exactly. Nothing wrong with giving the kid some grace period as he adjusts, I.e. be patient. I am certain that, given some time to adjust, he’ll be similar to Machado in the way he made changes and grew into his body and game. He will not be in awe of anything. Jackson is different. I am all for having him start the season at 2B. Let him play and learn. Bat him 9th and watch him blossom. The game will not be too fast for him. Not for long anyway.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I guess my point is that he was never really mired in a huge slump or anything. That will happen eventually and maybe they want to see how he reacts. 

Depends on your definition of long. Over 105 PAs and 23 games at Aberdeen, Holliday slumped to .183/.362/.232/.594 with 26 K's and only 1 2B and 1 HR. His 21 walks is what propped up his OBP. 

Now he made the adjustments and hit well afterwards to include his good stats in AA. 

Holliday is a fantastic player and I'm sure he worked hard to improve this offseason, so who knows what he will look like this spring, but barring an injury, I still think he starts the year in AAA and they'll see what he looks like after a few months at least.

Of course, if they are not planning on letting Mayo get a legitimate shot at 3B, they very well may decide Holliday's bat and defense at 2B, is better than Urias so they could move Westburg to 3B and DFA/trade Urias. 

 

   

[Hallas]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I hadn’t noticed how poorly Butier did in TZ, the only advanced metric for defense available from that time on BB-ref.  I’m surprised he accumulated as much rWAR as he did despite that.  

As to Ichiro, we should never forget that he spent many of his best years in Japan and played in the US well past his prime. He hit .331/.376/.430 his first 10 years in the majors and could have had several more years like that if he hadn’t been playing in Japan.  Then he kept playing until age 45 over here, another ten years, and that dragged his final US career stats down a long ways.  He was a much better hitter than Butler in his prime.  

(Just noticed that Butler is two days younger than me.  6/15/57.   I’m old!)

 

 

They're remarkably similar as hitters, and Butler's best years are slightly better if you're talking strictly batting value.  His 2 best wRC+ seasons are 140 and 138.  Ichiro's 2 best are 131 and 125.  Unless you want to argue that Ichiro's true prime was before he arrived in the US, and he would have had even better if he started his career in the MLB in his early 20s... which might very well be the case.

 

Ichiro's value as a baserunner is absolutely massive though and pushes his overall run contribution over Butler's peak years.  Ichiro's 2 best offensive runs created years are 33.9 and 30.2, compared to Butler at 29.7 and 28.3.

Edited February 8 by Hallas

[Frobby]

Keith Law came out with his farm rankings today:

1. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles’ system has become ridiculously deep in position players now that the players they’ve signed in international free agency the last few years are bubbling up, with that particular group led by No. 20 overall prospect Sammy Basallo. They have so much depth in the infield that they were able to trade shortstop Joey Ortiz (No. 58) — who looks like a 3 WAR player right now — for Corbin Burnes and still have more infielders than they can possibly play. There’s also some more pitching coming even though they have largely eschewed drafting arms with high-round picks, with their top two pitching prospects coming via trade and several other international free-agent pitchers now on their top 20 list. They’ve drafted well and developed well and continue to find value where other teams might miss it. For all of the hype the Orioles’ system has received in the last five years, it might be better than ever right now.
 

As I recall, Law was about the only pundit who didn’t rank the Os no. 1 last year, dinging us because our international program hadn’t matured yet.  So much for that!

[DrungoHazewood]

On 2/5/2024 at 1:30 PM, Sports Guy said:

He will be @DrungoHazewood favorite player if he puts it together.

His style is the exact type of guy that Drungo likes to talk about from the old days, why teams should move fences back, etc…a real throw back type guy.

Maybe. But there's a difference from the style of baseball I'd like to see, with lots of speed and triples and balls in play, and what wins games in reality. If he ends up as a guy who's a plus defender who steals bases at a high percentage, hits 12 triples and 10 homers with a .300 average and 60 walks that would be awesome.

But he could also be 2007 Juan Pierre. Hits .293 and steals 64 bases but is still a well below-average player because his glove is just okay, he doesn't walk enough and had zero homers.

Obviously rooting for option A.