Fangraphs top 100

[Spy Fox]

Their ETA column indicates the year that the player must be added to the 40 man roster. It's not an intuitive use of "ETA" and it always confuses everyone. I don't know why they keep doing it that way. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If they were shutting him down and not playing at all, I would say it kills his chances of debuting this year but if he is going to keeping hitting, he still can debut this year. 
 

Either way, unless he has some big injury or just struggles mightily, he definitely debuts before 2026.

Obviously, Longenhagen thinks poorly of his defense, and thinks that’s important if they’re going to bring him up to play catcher.   I guess you either don’t think his defense is that bad, or don’t think it matters so long as he can hit.   I don’t have an independent opinion of how good or bad his defense is, I just read what Tony snd various other evaluators have to say.   But I’m quite sure that Elias won’t bring up a guy to play catcher if his defense is poor, no matter how good he is offensively.   

So, my takeaway is that, if Longenhagen is correct about Badallo’s defense, the only way we’ll see him before 2026 is if he isn’t playing catcher.   

And by the way, I think there’s zero chance he’s in the majors in 2024 regardless of what he does.  

 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Obviously, Longenhagen thinks poorly of his defense, and thinks that’s important if they’re going to bring him up to play catcher.   I guess you either don’t think his defense is that bad, or don’t think it matters so long as he can hit.   I don’t have an independent opinion of how good or bad his defense is, I just read what Tony snd various other evaluators have to say.   But I’m quite sure that Elias won’t bring up a guy to play catcher if his defense is poor, no matter how good he is offensively.   

So, my takeaway is that, if Longenhagen is correct about Badallo’s defense, the only way we’ll see him before 2026 is if he isn’t playing catcher.   

And by the way, I think there’s zero chance he’s in the majors in 2024 regardless of what he does.  

 

At best, he’s playing 40ish games a year at catcher with the Os. Based off of Tony’s evaluation and other takes from scouts/prospect guys, I think it’s fair to say he can do that but it’s his bat that takes him to the majors anyway.

[btdart20]

14 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Their ETA column indicates the year that the player must be added to the 40 man roster. It's not an intuitive use of "ETA" and it always confuses everyone. I don't know why they keep doing it that way. 

Agreed.  But that isn't what's happening here though. 

 

Salas signed in 1/2023 and his personal FG page says Rule 5 eligibility is 12/2027.  This list has 2026 ETA.

Basallo signed in 1/2021 and his personal FG page says Rule 5 eligibility is 12/2025.  This list has 2027 ETA.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs put Bradfield, Jr. and Baumeister on their “picks to click” list.  No significant commentary on either one of them.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2025-top-100/

[waroriole]

On 2/15/2024 at 9:41 AM, EdwinRip said:

Cowser isn’t listed.  Joey Oriz is 45.

So Kjerstad is Top 25 and Cowser not Top 100? 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

So Kjerstad is Top 25 and Cowser not Top 100? 

Yes, is the link to the list not working for you?

[waroriole]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, is the link to the list not working for you?

I assumed there would be logic applied to the list. Little early in the morning for snark isn’t it?

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I assumed there would be logic applied to the list. Little early in the morning for snark isn’t it?

Never.

 

[Frobby]

 

 

Angelus Novus

12:08

Why is Hollday (70) graded higher than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you take over the next decade, from that group?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:08

Better perceived chance to stay at SS than I had of Gunnar at that point. Tough not to take Gunnar of those three in this moment.

[Frobby]

Ben Schneider

12:10

Hi Eric, thanks for all the great work. After a strong year at the plate, why do you think Connor Norby is not a 50 FV player, and how does he fit on the Orioles' roster?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:11

LF for me, not enough offense to be a 50 there. Either he or Mountcastle needs to move for him to play, probably.

[Frobby]

Tim

12:34

Do you think Colton Cowser is anything more than a platoon guy?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:35

I do not

[Frobby]

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

12:41

Can science explain why multiple projection systems (ZiPS and Steamer) think Coby Mayo will play above average 3B defense? I would be thrilled, but those conclusions are the direct opposite of what prospect writers say. I think Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since last year.

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:43

Yeah, evaluating minor league defense visually (when you can actually do it thoroughly) will give you way better results than a proj system is going to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast type stuff could help you model defense if you had access to that data.

[Frobby]

ordash

12:45

Jordan Westburg gets overshadowed in the strong Orioles system. Do you think he can be an everyday guy by year's end?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:46

I have more a 45 on him because the defense is kinda bleh. Might be out-talented by the others. Still a good player, just ideally want him to have a lefty/defense caddy. Think J Ortiz was more an omnisituational guy, Westy has more juice tho.

[Frobby]

romorr

1:02

If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in next years top 100, can you give me your two best guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

1:02

nailed it with Baumeister i think

 

1:03

you guys are good at this and basically guessing the names in this next piece

 

jakefromboonesfarm

1:03

Lots of distance between major rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doors off in majors last year.  What separates them so much in your eval?

 

Eric A Longenhagen

1:04

Kjerstad's physicality and barrel control > Cowser. Cowser is a more discerning hitter but doesn't have nearly as much physical talent. Heston looked bulky and strong during '22 AFL, looked super cut and explosive in 2023, I thought he hit a different gear