Fangraphs top 100

[Sports Guy]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/
 

4 Os in the top 25…no one else listed.

[EdwinRip]

Cowser isn’t listed.  Joey Oriz is 45.

[Frobby]

They’re the high guys on Basallo (7) and Kjerstad (24)

[btdart20]

Thayron Liranzo (big brother of our Joshua Liranzo) is #72.

Norby-adjacent Michael Busch is #84.  

 

I'll be interested in the FV they put on the guys who missed the top 100 - Cowser, EBJ, Norby, and a few of the SP prospects.  Hoping to see them with 50's (in the same tier as the bottom two-thirds of the list).  

 

In a bit of a 'whatever' comment, I recall they do ETA a little different, but it is odd to see Salas with 2026 and Basallo with 2027.

 

[Warehouse]

Fangraphs has a very different view of Holliday’s defense compared to the Athletic.

“He also isn’t currently a big league-quality shortstop defender and definitely isn’t better than Gunnar Henderson is right now. “

[Frobby]

Here’s what Fangraphs had to say about the defense of these four players:

Holliday: “He also isn’t currently a big league-quality shortstop defender and definitely isn’t better than Gunnar Henderson is right now. Holliday played 20 games at second base in 2023 and that might be the path to an earlier debut for him, but he’s talented enough to project as a suitable shortstop within the next couple of years. His ability to make accurate throws from odd platforms is impressive, as are Holliday’s poise and internal clock. He’s most comfortable throwing on the move and often goes out of his way to do so even when it isn’t called for. Holliday lets a lot of choppers take an unnecessarily high hop, with the direction of that hop sometimes surprising him. He needs to do a better job of staying low and attacking this type of ball in play closer to the ground.”  40/50 Fielding, 50 Throwing.

Basallo: “With a full season of defensive reps under his belt, we have little better idea of what Basallo can and can’t do behind the plate. His arm strength is incredible. Basallo routinely pops below 1.9 seconds, though like a lot of catchers his age, he could stand to be more accurate and consistent coming out of his crouch. His receiving is not good, but it isn’t so terrible that it damns him to first base. His ball blocking might though, and it’s this area of Basallo’s game that most needs to improve. If this skill doesn’t progress, or if Basallo’s size quickly forces him to move out from behind the plate, then his issues with chase would suddenly become more of a problem, though we’re probably still talking about a strong enough hit/power combo for Basallo to be an everyday first baseman.”  20/40 Fielding, 70 Throwing.

Mayo: “There is still a lot of work to be done on defense here, as Mayo’s size makes it hard for him to move around at third base. Even though Mayo’s bat has him on pace for a debut late in 2024, unless he looks good at first base (where he saw increased action after his promotion to Triple-A) or in right field (where Mayo has been speculatively projected here at FanGraphs for a while because of his max-effort arm strength) pretty quickly, he’s more likely going to debut in 2025 barring trades involving the corner hitters nearing free agency ahead of him. Mayo projects to hit 35 annual homers, run a plus OBP, and consistently be one of the 10 most productive first baseman (or corner outfielders) in the game.” 30/40 Fielding,  70 Throwing.

Kjerstad: “[His] defense has surprisingly improved. When he first returned from injury in 2023, it looked as though he’d end up in the 1B/DH bucket. But Kjerstad has looked more mobile and athletic as he’s gotten farther away from his health and injury issues, and he now has average range and footspeed, though he still is not a very comfortable outfielder.” 40/45 Fielding, 55 Throwing.

Not exactly inspiring.

 

[Say O!]

A couple of points I found interesting on Holliday. 

• The blog post mentions that INTL professional players are not considered, but if were to rank then Yamamoto would be #2 on the list (meaning Holliday would still outrank)
• First list in which I noticed Holliday getting 70 FV grade overall.  It’s also noteworthy that none of the scouting grades on his individual tools exceed 60 FV.  Compare that to other top propects who have one or more tools at 70 FV or greater but whose overall grades are 60 or lower. 

Edited February 15 by Say O!

[glenn__davis]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not exactly inspiring.

 

Meh.  I've learned to take defensive MiLB reports, both positive and negative, with a pretty big grain of salt.

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Meh.  I've learned to take defensive MiLB reports, both positive and negative, with a pretty big grain of salt.

Right.  Here’s what Fangraphs said about Westburg last year.

 

There has to be some separation between Westburg and that group of 50s to account for his combination of strikeouts and below-average defense. He’s still pretty likely to poke out 20-25 homers while playing fringy infield defense, a complementary regular who needs a late-inning replacement.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

In a bit of a 'whatever' comment, I recall they do ETA a little different, but it is odd to see Salas with 2026 and Basallo with 2027.

I can’t make sense of that, but their “ETA” column is irrelevant to what they really think:

“ If the Orioles just want access to Basallo’s bat and decide to fast track him as a DH, or proactively move him to first base knowing Adley Rutschman is in place as the franchise catcher for a while, then a late 2025 debut feels possible. If the Orioles want to give Basallo the best chance of having immediate success as a big league catcher, then he’s more likely on a late 2026 or spring 2027 trajectory.”

 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Not exactly inspiring.

Yeah, agreed.  That was the general theme I came away with too.  It puts more pressure on their bats.

Holliday - While I'm not convinced/anticipating a GG caliber glove/arm, I do think he'll be a serviceable player in the middle.  Even sticking at SS is a bit of a luxury at the end of the day.

Basallo - C would be nice.  But I doubt defensive gaps is going to hold his bat back as a back-up C.  As others have said, he can still develop in the MLB.  When does the ABS debut in the MLB?  That's part of the Basallo discussion too.

Mayo - I can get the reflex thing on sharp grounders.  But that's not the only play 3Bs make and he's capable of making athletic plays.  And sticking at 3B is a bit of a luxury here too.  

HK - I read his blurb as a net positive actually.  We know he's not a burner or 70-grade defender.  We're not replacing one either. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

 

• First list in which I noticed Holliday getting 70 FV grade overall.  It’s also noteworthy that none of the scouting grades on his individual tools exceed 60 FV.  Compare that to other top propects who have one or more tools at 70 FV or greater but whose overall grades are 60 or lower. 

For context, Gunnar and Corbin Carroll were only graded 65 last year.   So, they like Holliday a little better.  But that doesn’t mean he’ll be better instantly, even if their long term prognosis is correct.  Gunnar was 21.6years old last year, Carroll 22.5, Holliday is 20.2.   He may need more time than those two to mature into his best self.  

[Sports Guy]

lol @ the idea that Basallo is 2-3 years away from debuting. It’s far more likely he debuts this year than that time table.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol @ the idea that Basallo is 2-3 years away from debuting. It’s far more likely he debuts this year than that time table.

Maybe they knew about the elbow?

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe they knew about the elbow?

If they were shutting him down and not playing at all, I would say it kills his chances of debuting this year but if he is going to keeping hitting, he still can debut this year. 
 

Either way, unless he has some big injury or just struggles mightily, he definitely debuts before 2026.