Orioles 5-2 over Pirates (observations)

[RZNJ]

1.  Jackson Holliday had a rough day.  He might be over swinging a bit but I’ve seen him multiple games against LHP and he doesn’t seem comfortable.  He’ll be aggressive but then take a fastball down the middle.   No solid contact today.  He did move from 2B to SS later in the game and made a nice play coming in on a high bouncer and firing a strong throw to 1B.

2. Greyson didn’t look good at all.  The stuff looked mostly fine.  I saw 97 on his fastball.  The location was terrible, especially with his fastball which he pulled glove side a lot.  He just looked out of sync.

3. Westburg played SS and made a great play on a line drive to his left.  Kind of leaned back and did a counter clockwise 360 and perfect throw to 1B.  He hit two knee high pitches on the screws.  One was a line out to the SS.  The other was a line out to the 3B.

4. Kjerstad is just overly aggressive right now but the swing looks good when he gets something to hit.  I think he’ll be fine and I think he’s the best hitter of the three but Cowser and Stowers are definitely showing better right now.

5.  Mateo had a couple of fairly routine plays and the good news is that he made them look that way.

6. Bryan Baker definitely looks more under control.  Looks like better control of everything but specifically the slider and changeup.   He still missed some but the misses were generally close.  He as 95-97.

7. Coulombe looked like 2023 Coulombe.  Everything moves.  92 mph.

8.  Urias made two nice plays an slow bouncers.

9. Stowers hit two grounders hard.  One tied the game up and went to the right of 2B.  The other went right to the 1B and Stowers hustled it into just a force.

10. Cowser crushed the homer on a pitch down and in. Missed his strikeout later in the game.  Looked comfortable getting a fly ball down the LF line.

11. Norby looked good both AB.  Lined a double down the LF line and fouled off a lot of off speed stuff while working a walk.

 

Edited March 3 by RZNJ

[Billy F-Face3]

Good info. Thanks RZ. I was especially wondering about Mateo in CF and Jackson vs LHP.  You also just relieved a little bit of my anxiety towards Kjerstad. Before reading your post, I was just thinking to myself that he seems to have fallen behind Stowers and Cowser in the competition for a potential roster spot.

Coulombe and Baker sound encouraging.

[DirtyBird]

What did you think about Povich? 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What did you think about Povich? 

I’ve never been impressed by Povich.  Today was just confirmation bias.  Looks like a  potential #5 starter to me.  He was 92 the 1st inning and 92-94 the 2nd.  None of his pitches look great to me.  I think I saw some cutters at 88-89.  Each pitch type, he threw some good ones but my impression is that ML hitters would eat him alive right now.

Edited March 3 by RZNJ

[Too Tall]

Watched the game also. Agree with your recap. It's a real shame there is no place for Norby. I really like him so admit bias. Based on what I've seen so far, Holliday needs more time at AAA. And, it's not a clock thing. Glad I don't have to make the decisions to get to 26. 

What has impressed me most over the games I've watched so far:

The consistently good defense throughout each game.

The fact our pitchers are mostly throwing strikes.

The quality of our subs compared to those we are playing. We seem to have some serious depth.

Thanks for your observations RZNJ.

[Triple Crown]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I’ve never been impressed by Povich.  Today was just confirmation bias.  Looks like a  potential #5 starter to me.  He was 92 the 1st inning and 92-94 the 2nd.  None of his pitches look great to me.  I think I saw some cutters at 88-89.  Each pitch type, he threw some good ones but my impression is that ML hitters would eat him alive right now.

Agree 100% with the Povich assessment. I just don’t see major league stuff at all and I’ve seen him multiple times. Kind of reminds me of a tad harder throwing Brian Matusz. Hope I’m dead wrong 

[Sanity Check]

Count me as another who has seen Povich multiple times at Norfolk last year, and I wasn't impressed with his approach or command in the games I saw him.  Apparently, he did well in some games I didn't see him.  If he gets called up to the O's, I'll do him - and everyone on here - a favor and not watch him 

[RZNJ]

47 minutes ago, Triple Crown said:

Agree 100% with the Povich assessment. I just don’t see major league stuff at all and I’ve seen him multiple times. Kind of reminds me of a tad harder throwing Brian Matusz. Hope I’m dead wrong 

Harding throwing Matus?   That is a good one.  I wish I had thought of it.   You nailed it.

[RZNJ]

BTW, while Holliday was playing 2B he made an amazing attempt on a ground ball clearly (5 feet?) on the SS side of 2B.   The ball was hit firmly and headed to CF.  Holliday was shaded towards 2B a bit but the quickness and range plus dive and the adjustment (the last hop was high) to just get his glove on the ball was impressive.  I wish there was a way to show the play.

In contrast, Wong let a very playable ball get past him up the middle yesterday.  

Edited March 4 by RZNJ

[AnythingO's]

2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Good info. Thanks RZ. I was especially wondering about Mateo in CF and Jackson vs LHP.  You also just relieved a little bit of my anxiety towards Kjerstad. Before reading your post, I was just thinking to myself that he seems to have fallen behind Stowers and Cowser in the competition for a potential roster spot.

OK, I'm a HK homer, but before today CC had 4 SO in 8 ABs to go with those 2 HRs. Today he was 1 for 3 with another HR and SO so 5 SO in 11 ABs but 3 HRs for 6 RBIs and to his credit also 3 BBs. So SSS alert. I believe he is selling SOs for power which undercuts his batting eye and the bat to ball skills he was drafted for. My fear is, since we re-worked his swing to get to his power, he won't be that high average, OBP guy we drafted. I don't think he has "settled into" who he will be in MLB. I still think his 26.8% SO rate at AAA is evidence he hasn't found himself yet. IMHO they should put him in LF in AAA (mot CF) until he adjusts to the way the fly balls curve there vs CF and let him figure out who he is going to be as a hitter. I fear off speed and quality heat at MLB level will expose him badly. I don't want that.

HK IMHO has similar bat to ball skills as CC but isn't interested in OBP (walks), he would prefer to put a bat on it and he likes his odds. Similar to Mountcastle in a way, but HK won't expand the strike zone. He was at 20.5% SO at AAA, which seems like a significant difference to CC. Folks knock HK's speed but Fangraphs and Savant have him equal or faster than Cowser. As RZNJ observed, he is putting good swings on balls that are hittable. HK's bat will play at MLB level now and his defense will be MLB average or better in RF. Stowers is a bigger threat to HK making the 26 roster. Both HK and CC could be "held back" for a few months to gain another year of control based on Stowers play now that he is healthy.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

BTW, while Holliday was playing 2B he made an amazing attempt on a ground ball clearly (5 feet?) on the SS side of 2B.   The ball was hit firmly and headed to CF.  Holliday was shaded towards 2B a bit but the quickness and range plus dive and the adjustment (the last hop was high) to just get his glove on the ball was impressive.  I wish there was a way to show the play.

In contrast, Wong let a very playable ball get past him up the middle yesterday.  

MLB Gameday has videos from the game.  Check out Connor Joes RBI single in the first.  That’s the play. 
 

[Just Regular]

Savant Gamefeed does have Cade Povich among today's Swing & Misses leaders.

Jordan Westburg also on the top ribbon today with a 108 EV.

A good omen the first couple OPACY series against the April pitching opponents would be if Westburg can get breaking ice on Walltimore in 2024 out of the way.

I've come to expect this lower SLG, hitting polite kind of mode from the Sigbot's rookies as they break in.    Westburg is way more likely to end up in the Zobrist friend zone if he has 4 not 11 home runs at the All-Star break.

[interloper]

Grayson is looking like first half Grayson in both of his starts so far, so that's not great. But he's also working on a new pitch and maybe not pitching exactly how he would in games that count.

Burnes hasn't looked great either so it's hard to really complain about Grayson TOO much at this point in spring.

Edited March 4 by interloper

[Billy F-Face3]

21 minutes ago, interloper said:

Grayson is looking like first half Grayson in both of his starts so far, so that's not great. But he's also working on a new pitch and maybe not pitching exactly how he would in games that count.

Burnes hasn't looked great either so it's hard to really complain about Grayson TOO much at this point in spring.

Tyler Wells didn't look great last spring training either but when the games actually counted he was the Orioles best pitcher for the first half before the All Star break. 

I think pitchers use the exhibition games to experiment with their stuff and to test it out on real hitters.

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

My fear is, since we re-worked his swing to get to his power, he won't be that high average, OBP guy we drafted. I don't think he has "settled into" who he will be in MLB. I still think his 26.8% SO rate at AAA is evidence he hasn't found himself yet.

Why do you think he won't be the high average, high OBP hitter the Orioles drafted? There's no statistical evidence to back up that conclusion - in fact, the evidence points to the opposite being true.

In 399 plate appearances in AAA last season - after Cowser's swing was "re-worked", as you pointed out - Cowser had a .417 OBP. And his OBP throughout the entirety of his minor league career has been excellent. Cowser has been the closest thing in the minors to Juan Soto-level OBP since Cowser was drafted. If you don't think he's going to be able to be the high OBP guy we drafted, I think that's because you're putting way to much stock in an extreme major league SSS last season where Cowser was never given an opportunity to play every day.

Cowser's BABIP of .175 in the small sample size of 77 at bats strongly suggests he was merely unlucky in 2023 at the MLB level, but regardless of whether Cowser was unlucky, struggled, or some combination of both, his 16.9% BB% was very good for a rookie's first stint in the majors with sporadic playing time.

I think Cowser will be the high average, high OBP the Orioles drafted. And it's going to be frustrating seeing Ryan O'Hearn take at bats that will come at the expense of Cowser early this season.