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Jackson Holliday 2024


btdart20

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I think, the tools are there. The pedigree is there. He is young. We are going to find out over the next 18 months what kind of "head" he has. Like all Oriole youngsters, I hope he can produce equal to his hype. But I think/hope he will have to earn his place starting with next spring. He will set the narrative and the Orioles control his future unless he is traded. IMO, he has a lot of work to do to earn what circumstance has presented this year..

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ZiPS being an inhuman thing incapable of recency bias is not much out on Holliday.    It only dings his 2025-2029 forecast WAR by about 3% today relative to what it was forecasting this spring.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reassessing-the-future-for-this-seasons-disappointing-rookies/

Jackson Holliday’s numbers didn’t take a big hit for a few reasons. First, and most importantly, despite a really lousy debut in the majors, he played well enough in the minors — plus he’s so young and his résumé is so strong — that his small-sample struggles barely register. By reverse-o-fying Holliday’s major league woes into an untranslated minor league line and including it in his overall Triple-A production, ZiPS estimates that he would’ve had a 118 wRC+ in Triple-A this season, down from his actual mark of 142. A 20-year-old shortstop with a 118 wRC+ in Triple-A would still top everybody’s prospect list.

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Very dismayed that we're trying to win this season with unproven players like Holliday and Mayo plugging gaps. Very glad to have picked up Rivera  (+151 OPS as an Orioles) and Slater has a much-needed .354 OBP, plays a reassuringly fine LF, and is a good baserunner. I hope that the defensively versatile, LH-batting Livan Soto proves to be yet another surprise--his limited MLB stats show it's possible.

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20 hours ago, LA2 said:

Very dismayed that we're trying to win this season with unproven players like Holliday and Mayo plugging gaps. Very glad to have picked up Rivera  (+151 OPS as an Orioles) and Slater has a much-needed .354 OBP, plays a reassuringly fine LF, and is a good baserunner. I hope that the defensively versatile, LH-batting Livan Soto proves to be yet another surprise--his limited MLB stats show it's possible.

After going just 0-3 last night, Slater now has a .318 OBP on the season and a .296 OBP in September. Slater has an ugly swing, as well as ugly underlying advanced metrics.

Slater was never a good pickup for this team, especially because Elias sold him as some sort of ideal buy low platoon option against lefties even though he has been a better hitter against righties this season.

Heston Kjerstad needs to be playing every day from now on, and in particular Kjerstad should NOT be pinch hit for late in games against lefties for Slater. It's just not worth it to keep giving Slater at bats just hoping for a walk, which has predominantly been his "value" to the team as a hitter. But since Hyde is a slave to senseless platooning, especially when it favors vets, I'm sure that's what we'll see moving forward.

Screenshot_293.png

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15 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

After going just 0-3 last night, Slater now has a .318 OBP on the season and a .296 OBP in September. Slater has an ugly swing, as well as ugly underlying advanced metrics.

Slater was never a good pickup for this team, especially because Elias sold him as some sort of ideal buy low platoon option against lefties even though he has been a better hitter against righties this season.

Heston Kjerstad needs to be playing every day from now on, and in particular Kjerstad should NOT be pinch hit for late in games against lefties for Slater. It's just not worth it to keep giving Slater at bats just hoping for a walk, which has predominantly been his "value" to the team as a hitter. But since Hyde is a slave to senseless platooning, especially when it favors vets, I'm sure that's what we'll see moving forward.

Screenshot_293.png

They've been able to eke out 0.4 WAR out of him by using him mostly situationally and his defense has been adequate and flexible. He's been a solid pickup and TBH better overall than Hays who brought a clubhouse issue with him re: wanting to be a regular.

That said, I am 100% of the mindset that Heston needs to be starting every game. At the very least, Eloy should never be starting over him. 

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  • Posts

    • Great post.  I like your optimism, and I'll try to believe this team can turn things around just in the nick of time like some classic Hollywood baseball movie.
    • I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought.  I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason. I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall.  Just too many injuries late in the season.  That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater.  
    • Man this team has no shot. Right now they may not even make it. 
    • Most of these guys are only playing because of injuries to starters.  But Austin Slater I'm guessing was brought in to replace the traded Austin Hays.  The problem is that Slater has shown little ability to hit lefties this year, after hitting them pretty well up to this season.  This must be why two teams dropped him before the O's picked him up.  I know he was let go much earlier in the season, but is Ryan McKenna actually worse than this guy?  I don't understand how the front office went from releasing McKenna to later trading Hays and Norby -- thinking their right handed bats could adequately be replaced by someone like Slater.  
    • I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course.  
    • I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked.  But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit. To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead).  And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday). The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead).   At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did.
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