Coby Mayo 2024

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he can play third at this level. It’s just not going to happen here.

An issue I have had for many years with this org, which Tony mentioned recently, is that the Os seem hesitant to take pitchers and put them in relief roles sooner. I have long been irritated by this.

This is a similar thing. Now, it’s not that Mayo can’t handle third but it’s not happening here, so why are we wasting time playing him at a position he’s not going to play here?

Of course, Westburg is hurt and he can play it for now but he should have been getting a lot more 1st base time and throw him out in RF some.

If you aren’t going to do those things, why are you keeping him in the minors, especially when those on the ML roster playing instead of him aren’t providing you a ton of value.

None of it makes sense. 

I understand, and agree with, positional flexibility and time for development.  And he's more valuable to us, and as a trade piece, if he can play 3B.  I would not advocate him giving up the position entirely but I really wanted him to spend more time at 1B/COF so he was more prepared to play them.  In other words, we agree on that.

The pitching development side is similar; starters are more valuable, of course.  Deciding when to pull the plug on that experiment and try pitchers out of the pen is tough.  It might be easier if there were more interesting arms in the org but that bleeds into the thread about drafting.  I do think we might have developed a couple useful pen pieces by now if we had moved kids there sooner.

Tangentially, you can be a good reliever with two good pitches (one, if it's elite).  For a starter, three good pitches will work.  The best, like Burnes, can throw 4+ effectively.  There's benefit to learning and trying to develop several pitches but we seem to have (and maybe I'm wrong but) a pattern in the org with command issues.  I'd rather see a kid master two pitches and then add another instead of trying to throw five pitches all of the time.

[OriolesMagic83]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

For sure he isn't as good, but he might be 75% as good for 50% of the cost, and at that part of baseball's pay structure we don't go to 100%, not even for Gunnar or Adley yet.

Elias I think kind of chills on SP this winter waiting for data how well or poorly Bradish's recovery progresses to inform July 2025 trade deadline actions.     With health Eflin, Grayson, Rogers and Kremer I think get the first four games.      Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease or Freddy Peralta maybe come available next summer if one of their teams stumbles.     Somebody out of Suarez, Povich, Irvin, McDermott, Young will rate an April SP5 role.

Gee, I hope not, that reminds me of something the O's would have done under JA.  You know, because money is tight, and those extensions, none of which have been signed cost a lot of money.  There will be a meltdown on here if that is the opening day rotation.  I guess Povich, McDermott and Irvin can have a competition for #5.

[Spakman]

2 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Keep him up, sending hin down after this SSS is lunacy. You should know this better than anybody.

You can call it a short sample size, but he ain’t even coming close to getting to getting hits. And he’s down  0-2 almost every single bat. He doesn’t need to be here he’s not contributing he needs to fix his stance. He stands way too upright.

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

For sure he isn't as good, but he might be 75% as good for 50% of the cost, and at that part of baseball's pay structure we don't go to 100%, not even for Gunnar or Adley yet.

Elias I think kind of chills on SP this winter waiting for data how well or poorly Bradish's recovery progresses to inform July 2025 trade deadline actions.     With health Eflin, Grayson, Rogers and Kremer I think get the first four games.      Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease or Freddy Peralta maybe come available next summer if one of their teams stumbles.     Somebody out of Suarez, Povich, Irvin, McDermott, Young will rate an April SP5 role.

With Grayson's health now being an iffy proposition and Kremer's performance being as bad as it has been this year, for Elias to "chill on SP this winter" would be to the team's detriment IMO.

Subtracting the quality and innings of a Burnes and replacing him with nothing would be extremely damaging to a bullpen who is already not that great to begin with.

IMO waiting until July to solve a problem that already exists is a recipe for disaster. We can't really afford anymore "delaying" actions now. The calvary is already here and the clock is ticking on this Adley/Gunnar/Westburg/Cowser/Holliday/Mayo window.

It is very unlikely that we will ever be in a position again to house this type of position player talent within the org all at one time. The draft rules are now set up to prevent the extreme tanking tactics that we deployed to allow all of this.

[Aristotelian]

37 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Mayo level prospects-top 5 in baseball by some rankings, are not easily obtained.  Trading one of the big 3 for 2 years of Skubal is probably an overpay, but trading one for a year and 2 or 3 months is just getting to be too much.  Skubal is a time sensitive valuable.  The longer Detroit holds him, the less he is worth.

Is Mayo really top 5? Not sure about that. 

Regardless, the Luis Castillo deal would be a comp for Skubal at the '25 deadline. He got an MLB #18 and more, and I would say Skubal is significantly more valuable than Castillo. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Is Mayo really top 5? Not sure about that. 

 

He’s 12 on FanGraphs, 14 on mlb.com, no. 7 on Just Baseball.

[Alasdaire]

59 minutes ago, Spakman said:

You can call it a short sample size, but he ain’t even coming close to getting to getting hits. And he’s down  0-2 almost every single bat. He doesn’t need to be here he’s not contributing he needs to fix his stance. He stands way too upright.

How is he supposed to know what to fix with the equivalent of three or four full games of at bats? Before this cup of coffee, there wasn't anything apparent that he needed to fix since he was dominating AAA. Do you think 15 ABs has changed that? MLB pitchers will expose your flaws in a way that AAA don't, but you need to let that actually play out over a bigger sample size than 15 ABs to make clear what the issue is.

[Spakman]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

How is he supposed to know what to fix with the equivalent of three or four full games of at bats? Before this cup of coffee, there wasn't anything apparent that he needed to fix since he was dominating AAA. Do you think 15 ABs has changed that? MLB pitchers will expose your flaws in a way that AAA don't, but you need to let that actually play out over a bigger sample size than 15 ABs to make clear what the issue is.

I don’t know why it wasn’t fixed I’m not in charge, but if I have to tell you the competition between AAA and Major leagues is vastly different than I don’t know what to say.  You do not see many people with stances that upright in major leagues for good reason. 

[Alasdaire]

Just now, Spakman said:

I don’t know why it wasn’t fixed I’m not in charge, but if I have to tell you the competition between AAA and Major leagues is vastly different than I don’t know what to say.  You do not see many people with stances that upright in major leagues for good reason. 

And you think that no one in the organization has noticed Coby Mayo's stance over the course of four years he has been with the franchise until he has been called up to Baltimore and then all of his 15 at bats has made that so abundantly clear that there is nothing left to see?

There is a very good chance that Coby in large part because adjustments to be made. But if that's the motivation, then it would be helpful to have more than a handful of MLB at bats to more fully reveal what the issues are.

[iiiput]

1 hour ago, Spakman said:

You can call it a short sample size, but he ain’t even coming close to getting to getting hits. And he’s down  0-2 almost every single bat. He doesn’t need to be here he’s not contributing he needs to fix his stance. He stands way too upright.

Initial stance means very little (which is why you see 100 different stances). Positioning at launch is what matters and he gets in a great athletic position at launch. He’s just struggling

[RZNJ]

On 8/12/2024 at 8:38 AM, Roy Firestone said:

I realize its not the exact  same thing, but here's a story to remember.

I always love to think about the wonderful scene in the Giants’ clubhouse after rookie Willie Mays got off to his disastrous 0-23 start. Giants’ coach Freddie Fitzsimmons saw Willie sitting alone in front of his locker crying. “Leo,” Franks said, “I think you better have a talk with your boy over there.”

What would have become of the Willie Mays if Leo wasn’t there to console him at this crucial time? I still get goose-bumps whenever I think about it. Leo went over to Willie and asked, “What’s the matter, son?” Willie turned to his manager and with tears streaming down his cheeks, replied: 

“I don’t belong up here…I can’t play here…I can’t help you Missa’ Leo. Send me back to the minors.” 

Leo smiled, patted Willie on the back, and simply said:

“Look son, I brought you up here to do one thing. That’s to play center field. You’re the best center fielder I’ve ever seen. As long as I’m here, you’re going to play center field. Tomorrow, next week, next month. As long as Leo Durocher is manager of this team you will be on this club because you’re the best ball player I have ever seen.”

The rest, as they say, is history. On his 24th at bat, Willie hit a homer over the left field fence off Warren Spahn who later joked, “I’ll never forgive myself. We might have gotten rid of Willie forever if I’d only struck him out.”

 

Time to needle you a little, Roy.   Where was the Willie May’s story when Holliday was struggling in April?

“As long as they are winning, the Orioles have both the luxury and the commitment to Jackson Holliday. He hit one bell well Tuesday night... but let's face it...even for a 20 year old rookie he's been pretty awful at the plate. Of course, the talent is there and he has to be comfortable at the plate, but how long do the Orioles run him out there? He has now struck out 12 time in 22 plate appearances. If he were some other rookie he'd be sent down...and if he were older and had less potential, he might be released. Of course, I'm not suggesting that. Holliday will eventually come around. But right now he's atrocious and maybe something mechanical or something psychological is in the way. Anybody have any suggestions? Should he sit again? The Orioles didnt miss his bat lately, but he's also a little shaky in the field too, a bobbled double play ball cost the team a run on Tuesday. Jackson needs to break out, and soon, or the unthinkable might be in the works...he might have to be sent down to get his confidence back.“

[NCRaven]

I've long been a supporter of moving Mayo to RF.  I think he does have the athleticism to play there and certainly has the arm.  Likewise, I believe that Basallo could be the long term solution at 1B if Rutschman continues to be the primary catcher.  I was disappointed that Mayo got so many reps at 1B, where he played poorly, vs. RF.

[deward]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

O'Hearn plays 1B most of the time. The only reason he doesn't play there full time is to get other bats in the lineup. We would not want that kind of defense out there full time. Been there, done that with Trumbo/Cruz/Delmon. 

O'Hearn has played 23 games in the OF this year, vs 24 at 1B (and, of course, 49 at DH). They wouldn't throw him out there that often if they weren't comfortable that he could at least be adequate. For that matter, I don't see anything that suggests to me that, with a focus on the role, Mayo couldn't approximate what Santander does with the glove in RF. 

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, deward said:

O'Hearn has played 23 games in the OF this year, vs 24 at 1B (and, of course, 49 at DH). They wouldn't throw him out there that often if they weren't comfortable that he could at least be adequate. For that matter, I don't see anything that suggests to me that, with a focus on the role, Mayo couldn't approximate what Santander does with the glove in RF. 

I actually hadn't realized that. Last year O'Hearn's split was way more 1B-centric. His breakdown this year may be more a function of his 1B defense being not that great rather than his OF defense being good. 

Santander had a whole minor league career playing OF. I don't know how we can expect Santander level defense from a guy who has never played it.

If Mayo has the innate skills to play OF and the organization has refused to try it, that would be a pretty major failing. Occam's razor says he just doesn't have the skills and that's why we haven't tried it. Admittedly I can't say for sure that is the case but that is my strong suspicion.

[deward]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I actually hadn't realized that. Last year O'Hearn's split was way more 1B-centric. His breakdown this year may be more a function of his 1B defense being not that great rather than his OF defense being good. 

Santander had a whole minor league career playing OF. I don't know how we can expect Santander level defense from a guy who has never played it.

If Mayo has the innate skills to play OF and the organization has refused to try it, that would be a pretty major failing. Occam's razor says he just doesn't have the skills and that's why we haven't tried it. Admittedly I can't say for sure that is the case but that is my strong suspicion.

I don't think ROH is particularly good at either position, but they clearly don't think his glove is a big enough detriment to keep him from playing the field in both roles. Mayo has the potential to be a better hitter than ROH, so I would assume the same logic would apply. He doesn't have to be good with a glove, just good enough. I think they should have put him out in RF all year in Norfolk and seen what happened. He can't learn without reps. Worst case, you'd have plenty of data to support the conclusion that RF isn't the answer. At least it would have been proactive.