Cedric Mullins 2024

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I hear what you're saying, but do we really need position player depth?  I mean, we sort of did some depth consolidation trades with position players for SP.  Heck, we even traded Cook for Reilly.  Can we really withstand losing Mullins and Santa?  Especially if we're serious about contending for a WS.  

Depth:

Mayo - Can cover 1B/3B.  This also provides depth in a way because Westburg could slide to 2B if need be.  

Basallo - C

Kjerstad - Direct replacement for Santa

CF - Alot of draft capital in the minors.  EBJ, Honeycutt, Overn, and Fabian.  

Plus position versatility guys like Urias, Mateo, Gunnar, Westburg, and even a guy like O'Hearn(OF).  

At this point, I think we need to try and have the most talented 9 guys in the starting lineup, but we should always consider a move for SP.  You can never have too much SP depth.  We're seeing that this year.  

I think the roster has to be built better.

They talked about the Red Sox last night. They have a good balance or righties and lefties and guys who do things well.

The Os have Mayo, Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg and Cowser who should be 150+ game guys. Adley is about as everyday a player as a catcher can be.

Kjerstad just depends on defense. Basallo will be a 150+ game guy.

 But we need more balance on offense. We need some good righty bats, even platoon ones, that can play the OF.

Will Mayo be an asset out there?  Can you have Mayo and Mounty?  I think we need more righty bats but Mounty should be dealt. Only being a first baseman and Mayo needing to be at first hurts him imo.

Some more versatility is needed.

So, can we afford to lose Mullins and Santander and Mounty?  Yea I think we can because Mayo and Kjerstad can take those at bats and eventually, Basallo as well.

But you have to balance out those losses with new players.  Think of it like Hays for Slater.  Hays is probably the better player but Slater is probably better for the role we need. 
 

The thing is, we need a legit CFer or a legit LFer, defensively.

This is why Mullins could be back.  I just think we should use this uptick as a reason to trade him. Save the money there, get what you can for him to help and then go get someone else for LF or CF. 
 

Im still intrigued by Robert but obviously the value is way down, so it depends on what they want.  Would love to target Brenton Doyle but doubt Colorado moves him even though they aren’t winning with him. 

[Just Regular]

The CF succession doesn't seem like it has much mystery to it.    Hays and Stowers gone just makes it that much clearer.

The 2024 and 2025 Orioles can use a good CF regular. 

You can sure as Coby Mayo put 2025 EBJ down for about 43 active roster days if he progresses as hoped.

By fWAR, he's MLB's 3rd most productive CF of the last 5 years, inching past that Trout guy with the big game yesterday.    Past peak, sure, but still someone with a chance to end up contributing the 3rd most on the position player side to a potential 3 AL East champions.

[Frobby]

I just went back and read all 22 pages of this thread and it’s pretty hilarious.  The very first posts concludes, based on 3-4 games, that Mullins just isn’t a very good player anymore, a 4th OF at best.  After that, most of the first ten pages are just full of Mullins-worship after he got off to a good start over the first 3 weeks of the season.  Then the conversation just turns on a dime after Mullins begins to slump and the next ten pages, all in May and early June, just rag on the guy, with people even asking if he should be optioned to the minors.   Then as Mullins starts hitting again, discussion of him just slows to a crawl, with the last three months only occupying two pages of posts.   It’s a great portrait of how fans react to a player’s ups and downs.  Highly recommended for a good laugh.  

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he’s just talking about 2024 though. If he believes he was chasing the “ghost of 2021”, chances are he was doing it in 2022 and 2023 as well. 

As an example, look at his launch angle numbers.  In 2021, it was 14.8.

Since then, it has been 17.4, 21.6 and this year it’s 23.1. ML average is 12.3.

That tells me he’s a guy who has been trying to get more lift to hit more homers. If he has realized that and is trying to not do that, I think that’s encouraging. 

Clearly he believes it’s been a problem.

 

I’ve believed for years that his launch angle has been a problem when he’s slumping.  So many pop-ups.   And it’s been going up yearly.   But if he was chasing 2021, why not do what he was doing in 2021, I.e., hitting a lot of line drives, some of which were clearing the fence.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve believed for years that his launch angle has been a problem when he’s slumping.  So many pop-ups.   And it’s been going up yearly.   But if he was chasing 2021, why not do what he was doing in 2021, I.e., hitting a lot of line drives, some of which were clearing the fence.  

Who knows?  Players do lots of stupid things. He has clearly been chasing the homer. He is essentially admitting that when he said he has been chasing 2021. The launch angles tell you this as well.

 

[Too Tall]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just went back and read all 22 pages of this thread and it’s pretty hilarious.  The very first posts concludes, based on 3-4 games, that Mullins just isn’t a very good player anymore, a 4th OF at best.  After that, most of the first ten pages are just full of Mullins-worship after he got off to a good start over the first 3 weeks of the season.  Then the conversation just turns on a dime after Mullins begins to slump and the next ten pages, all in May and early June, just rag on the guy, with people even asking if he should be optioned to the minors.   Then as Mullins starts hitting again, discussion of him just slows to a crawl, with the last three months only occupying two pages of posts.   It’s a great portrait of how fans react to a player’s ups and downs.  Highly recommended for a good laugh.  

Right ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And there Ladies & Gentlemen you have OH in a nut shell. And OH is a mild compared to some other sites. 

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just went back and read all 22 pages of this thread and it’s pretty hilarious.  The very first posts concludes, based on 3-4 games, that Mullins just isn’t a very good player anymore, a 4th OF at best.  After that, most of the first ten pages are just full of Mullins-worship after he got off to a good start over the first 3 weeks of the season.  Then the conversation just turns on a dime after Mullins begins to slump and the next ten pages, all in May and early June, just rag on the guy, with people even asking if he should be optioned to the minors.   Then as Mullins starts hitting again, discussion of him just slows to a crawl, with the last three months only occupying two pages of posts.   It’s a great portrait of how fans react to a player’s ups and downs.  Highly recommended for a good laugh.  

It is somewhat hilarious that Mullins is basically back to slightly above .720/100 OPS+, which is basically exactly what he has done the last three years since his breakout 30/30 year. The problem is, under the hood he is extremely inconsistent with months at a time where he is absolutely awful. 

I'm guessing we keep him as Bradfield, Beavers, and Fabian are slowly worked in. In my mind he is worth a QO, but I would really be hoping for him to say no a bit more so than Santander. How Elias plays it will be interesting. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

It is somewhat hilarious that Mullins is basically back to slightly above .720/100 OPS+, which is basically exactly what he has done the last three years since his breakout 30/30 year. The problem is, under the hood he is extremely inconsistent with months at a time where he is absolutely awful. 

I'm guessing we keep him as Bradfield, Beavers, and Fabian are slowly worked in. In my mind he is worth a QO, but I would really be hoping for him to say no a bit more so than Santander. How Elias plays it will be interesting. 

Mullins isn’t eligible for FA. He has another year of control.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins isn’t eligible for FA. He has another year of control.

Oh yea, we're definitely keeping him to start next year. I'm wondering if we do an in season trade on the Hays plan, or keep him and then face the QO/let him walk decision. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Oh yea, we're definitely keeping him to start next year. I'm wondering if we do an in season trade on the Hays plan, or keep him and then face the QO/let him walk decision. 

It’s extremely unlikely that they would offer him the QO. It’s also unlikely they trade him midseason. Very different situation from Hays.

 

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s extremely unlikely that they would offer him the QO. It’s also unlikely they trade him midseason. Very different situation from Hays.

 

I definitely agree QO is highly unlikely, I just think he deserves the money based on WAR and CF position. But it's way more borderline than Santander. 

I don't see why midseason trade is less likely than Hays. He could be a good fit for a team that needs a CF. Cowser's ability to play CF makes him tradeable, and we have a few options in the pipeline. 

If we don't do trade or QO, that would leave letting him walk, which is also a bad outcome.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I definitely agree QO is highly unlikely, I just think he deserves the money based on WAR and CF position. But it's way more borderline than Santander. 

I don't see why midseason trade is less likely than Hays. He could be a good fit for a team that needs a CF. Cowser's ability to play CF makes him tradeable, and we have a few options in the pipeline. 

If we don't do trade or QO, that would leave letting him walk, which is also a bad outcome.

 

If Mullins is brought back, it’s because of his CF defense.  Now, I do agree that in a best case scenario, Bradfield could push him but Hays was traded seemingly for off field things and because they needed a better person for that role. 
 

The Mullins situation wouldn’t be quite the same and we don’t have other outfielders ready to take his place immediately…going into this season, we had 3 options that could have been or were better options than Hays.

Currently, we don’t have that with Mullins. 

[Spy Fox]

I think Mullins is back next year. 

Though, we are hoping Elias has more FA $ to spend this year. If that's true and there's a FA OF he likes, I could see them signing a midlevel RF/LF, moving Cowser to CF full time, and trading Mullins for younger pieces. 

[Just Regular]

Mullins and Santander, born a few weeks apart in October 1994, are I think a good example of the value of a year when players to get to this point in their careers.

They are both approaching the 3-0, Mullins has generally outplayed Santander in their careers, but even if Mullins stacks another ~2.8 win season next year, he'll feel like a bit riskier QO.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Who knows?  Players do lots of stupid things. He has clearly been chasing the homer. He is essentially admitting that when he said he has been chasing 2021. The launch angles tell you this as well.

 

Eh, no.    If he was chasing 2021, he’d try to keep the same launch angle that he had in 2021.   That just makes too much sense.   Period.

Pitchers adjusted to him.  Then he made adjustments.   And here we are.

Edited Wednesday at 16:55 by RZNJ