This offensive style is not sustainable

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With Mayo’s injury, and wanting to leave Holliday down for a bit, they’re ain’t no help coming from the minors. Maybe Kjerstad again??? Norby for Urias?

The vets need to work it out. 

Kjerstad needs to get a fair chance and not sit on the bench for most of the week. They should try to find room for Norby too even with his defensive limitations. I’ve been a Urias supporter, but if Mateo can be a utility infielder then there isn’t much use for Urias on the roster. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Seems that the Orioles have seen more left-handed pitchers this year and they also have seen that Adley traditionally has hit much better when DHing vs catching. Saying that, McCann has been absolute zero this year and looks like a guy who is in his last year of major league baseball. I'm sure McCann is a good clubhouse guy, but he's not a guy you want to run out there as much as they have been, and I think it's more out of necessity at this point. 

Maybe Hyde/Sigbot will let Stowers actually start against a lefty and that would allow Rutschman to C more against lefties?

I know all teams are matchup crazy but it’s really getting annoying. 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s partially you, because I certainly don’t see him doing that in almost every single at bat.  But I do see him doing it with some frequency, more so than in prior years.  I think he’s trying (with some success) to increase the launch angle on his swing, and that’s what’s causing the drop to one knee thing as he tries to get a little more under the ball.  His average launch angle has gone from 12.6 to 18.0, and he’s also pulling the ball more (42.5% to 38.4% last year) and hitting to the opposite field far less (20.3% to 28.3% last year).   I don’t think any of that is an accident.  

I don't think it any coincidence that we're seeing the launch angle increase, walks decrease, and him pulling the ball more. It's quite clear to me that Adley has decided this year he's going add more home runs/power to his game. That has worked (.180 ISO vs .158 last year), but it's come at the cost of his OBP and Runs created per game per 27 outs (5.6 vs 5.9 last year) and he's seeing the least amount pitches per plate appearance (3.92 vs 4.26 last year and 4.21 MLB avg).

Seems Adley has put himself in more bad counts this year as well but fouling off or missing meatballs more often, probably do to his upper cut swing that does not stay in the zone much. I'd like to see him cut that down with two strikes and go back to see ball, hit ball to all fields Adley.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think it any coincidence that we're seeing the launch angle increase, walks decrease, and him pulling the ball more. It's quite clear to me that Adley has decided this year he's going add more home runs/power to his game. That has worked (.180 ISO vs .158 last year), but it's come at the cost of his OBP and Runs created per game per 27 outs (5.6 vs 5.9 last year) and he's seeing the least amount pitches per plate appearance (3.92 vs 4.26 last year and 4.21 MLB avg).

Seems Adley has put himself in more bad counts this year as well but fouling off or missing meatballs more often, probably do to his upper cut swing that does not stay in the zone much. I'd like to see him cut that down with two strikes and go back to see ball, hit ball to all fields Adley.

The chase rate is what bothers me.

Whether it’s 0-0 or 3-2, if you get a pitch you want to hit, you go after it. I’m ok with that.

But swinging at balls, getting yourself in pitchers counts, etc…that’s not good.

[spleen1015]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, they are still making the playoffs.

But this offense is a real concern in terms of advancing.  They need to get this figured out.

I hope you're right. June is going to be an interersting month of baseball. They had a similar stretch last year and plays their arses off. Hoping for the same in June.

The next 40ish games are going to be fun.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

I hope you're right. June is going to be an interersting month of baseball. They had a similar stretch last year and plays their arses off. Hoping for the same in June.

The next 40ish games are going to be fun.

Offensive struggles right now aside, this is a very good team. I still think they need an impact arm in the bullpen but they are going to be in the playoffs this year. How far they advance will depend on a lot of things and it's too early to have those concerns now.

[Malike]

I think the White Sox series will be interesting. They have some guys who can pitch, but they are a terrible team. They should be a good team to get right against, but the possibility of them struggling with them exists with the ABs they've been taking against pitchers lately.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The chase rate is what bothers me.

Whether it’s 0-0 or 3-2, if you get a pitch you want to hit, you go after it. I’m ok with that.

But swinging at balls, getting yourself in pitchers counts, etc…that’s not good.

A lot of Orioles are being overly aggressive at the plate in key situations even Gunnar has been guilty of it at times. If pitchers are struggling with control don’t bail them out swinging at the first pitch. 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I feel like I’ve been seeing a lot of lazyish outfield fly balls lately.  Not hit hard enough to clear fences at that launch angle, and too high a launch angle to fall in for hits.  The Cardinal series seemed full of those.  
 

They also ground out to second and first a ton.  Almost every Gunnar out that isn't a K seems like a ground out to second or first.  BTW I was looking Gunnar's Savant page and interestingly he would have only 8 homers at Fenway (not related, just interesting).  

[e16bball]

Something I find interesting is that Santander and Mullins seem to be having very similar issues.

Per StatCast, Santander ranks #2 in all of baseball with a 17.2% popup rate, while Mullins checks in at #6 with a 14.4% rate. Relatedly, Anthony is also #2 with a 42.5% “under” rate, with Cedric landing #5 there at 38.5%. This checks out with my impressions from watching the games, as both players seem to be constantly popping the ball up.

This has always been a major issue for both of them, as they are both among a group of guys who seem to consistently top the popups leaderboard (Daulton Varsho, Isaac Paredes, Nolan Arenado) — but it’s been worse than ever this year. 
 

In looking at other guys who are running elevated (compared to normal) popup rates, there seems to be a fairly strong suggestion that there is some correlation with guys who would have cause to be “pressing” or trying to do too much. You see guys in huge contract years (Alex Bregman), as well as breakout stars who have struggled out of the gate (Corbin Carroll, Spencer Torkelson). Another name that stands out is 2022 Jose Ramirez, who had just signed a massive contract extension. 

I don’t know how you fix that, or if you can. You can’t change the fact that both of these guys are in sight of their next (and probably only large) contract — there genuinely is a lot at stake for both of them. If Tony was to hit 40 HRs this year, his next contract might double in size compared to if he only hits 25. If Cedric was in the midst of a 2021 type season, he might be about to lock up the first contract extension of this era. That pressure is not going away.

I hope they can settle in, start stringing a few hits together, and get back to being themselves — because I love both of them. It’s painful watching them try to hit 6-run HRs every time up, or do what Cedric did yesterday in trying to be the baserunning hero and instead ending up the goat. This is where Hyde has to earn his money, I think. He’s got to press the right buttons in terms of managing these guys’ mindsets. 

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Kjerstad needs to get a fair chance and not sit on the bench for most of the week. They should try to find room for Norby too even with his defensive limitations. I’ve been a Urias supporter, but if Mateo can be a utility infielder then there isn’t much use for Urias on the roster. 

There’s probably a shorter curve for Santa to figure it out versus Kjerstad’s learning curve at the MLB level. It is what it is. 

Kjerstad had ABs up here. Man, these dudes have been playing baseball their whole lives. He should’ve done something. His defense sucked too. I really like Kjerstad, cool story overcoming myocarditis, but produce bro. Not shedding tears for him. 

Edited May 23 by sportsfan8703

[Brooks The Great]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

There’s probably a shorter curve for Santa to figure it out versus Kjerstad’s learning curve at the MLB level. It is what it is. 

Kjerstad had ABs up here. Man, this dudes have been playing baseball their whole lives. He should’ve done something. His defense sucked too. I really like Kjerstad, cool story overcoming myocarditis, but produce bro. Not shedding tears for him. 

Kjerstad hasn't gotten a fair opportunity to show what he can do. If you think that he has, we'd never be able to even have a reasonable discussion about it because I couldn't disagree more, and it'd be because we view the game of baseball completely differently.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Kjerstad hasn't gotten a fair opportunity to show what he can do. If you think that he has, we'd never be able to even have a reasonable discussion about it because I couldn't disagree more, and it'd be because we view the game of baseball completely differently.

Fair?  What’s fair?  He got ABs last September. Didn’t improve his doo doo defense over the offseason. Got lots of ABs in ST. Got ABs up here this season.  

Keep in mind that I like Kjerstad. 

But Geez… force your way onto the darn team. We’re a 100 win team. He’s not just going to be handed 100 straight PAs.

He has 14 more MLB PA than Jackson Holliday. 

Edited May 23 by sportsfan8703

[baltfan]

From Fangraphs today.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-5-23-24/

cm: The Orioles have one of the lowest walk rates in baseball.  What are your thoughts on that as to whether it is a strategy or a problem with the young hitters.  Adley in particular is walking way less.

12:39

Dan Szymborski: They’ve done so much damage when they hit things that they’re incentivized to be aggressive

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Fair?  What’s fair?  He got ABs last September. Didn’t improve his doo doo defense over the offseason. Got lots of ABs in ST. Got ABs up here this season.  

Keep in mind that I like Kjerstad. 

But Geez… force your way onto the darn team. We’re a 100 win team. He’s not just going to be handed 100 straight PAs.

He has 14 more MLB PA than Jackson Holliday. 

I tend to think that OPSing 1.132 in AAA is about as much as a guy can do to force himself onto a roster. Without a barrel of East German Oral-Turinabol, that is.