The Os will be in the playoffs

[Sports Guy]

Barring a rash of injuries, the Os are going to be in the playoffs.  Seeding matters very little but they will either be the 1 seed or the 4 seed imo.

That said, the reason I mention this is because we have had a lot of discussions about replacing player X or player Y.

The reason to replace this guy or that guy isn’t to improve for the regular season…it’s to improve for the playoffs and give us the best chance to win.

With that in mind, by the time the playoffs get here, these are the players the team will be depending on, again barring injury, unexpected (or continuing) awful performanceor any potential trade:

Offensive players:  Mounty, Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Hays, Santander and OHearn.  
 

Pitchers: Burnes, Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Cano, DC, Kimbrel

 

That is 18 players.  Mateo and McCann will also be on the postseason roster but McCann isn’t likely to see the field, although Mateo will.

That leaves 6 spots.  Some of those spots may be filled by internal candidates for the pen or a guys like Mayo, Kjerstad and Norby.  Basallo could get in this picture but his continued slow start makes that even more unlikely than it was.

End of the day, the goal the rest of this season should be to get the roster to the point where they can win a title. 
 

For me, that means a few things:

1) Get 1 high leverage reliever and maybe 2.

2) Get Holliday up within the next 6 weeks.

3) Get Mayo playing time in RF now, so he can get up here in the second half and be ready to contribute. They could use his right handed bat.

As of now, you don’t trade for an offensive player or a starting pitcher unless there is one there that you can control for several years.

The resources the team has should go the pen and getting the right arm(s) for October. We consistently see teams go against the Orioles with these dominant pens where everyone is throwing 98+ with big time swing and miss stuff.  This is what the Os will be facing in the playoffs, so we need Holliday and Mayo to get up here to face that a lot and we need arms to match those guys in the playoffs.

For me, the playoffs are a foregone conclusion but success in the playoffs is not. This roster isn’t there yet for that but it can be. 

[FlaO'sFan]

I don't know, I have more confidence/feeling that Mayo is going to be a bigger contributor than Holliday this year.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Playing Mayo in the outfield is something I definitely want to see. Depending on what Elias does in the outfield Mayo could end up being the biggest upgrade because I don’t see a trade for someone like Luis Robert happening. Mayo’s bat is too good to waste on hoping he learns to play MLB quality defense at 3B. 

If Mayo can contribute with his bat I want him on the Orioles in some capacity. Also it gives more trade capital for Elias to get a flame throwing reliever. 

Edited May 16 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[LGOrioles]

I wouldn’t mind another RH bat if Mayo is going to stay in AAA. I don’t like the idea of having O’Hearn, Holliday, Cowser, and Mullins in the same lineup vs RHP’s with Hays as the only legitimate RH PH option. Or the idea of starting 2 of Mullins/Cowser/Urias/McCann vs LHP’s in the playoffs (as CF and DH). 

It will be interesting to see what Elias does with the BP though. Even if Kimbrel pitches well, you gotta think they’re adding another backend guy just because he’s been prone to these stretches where he’s quite bad. And if Kimbrel doesn’t turn it around and can’t be trusted, they probably 2 need pieces as you said. The best closer target would probably be Helsley but Yimi Garcia would be a great add the way he’s pitching right now. And guys like Luis Garcia, Andrew Kittredge, and Austin Adams could be lower profile but solid adds as that potential second piece. 

Edited May 16 by LGOrioles

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I wouldn’t mind another RH bat if Mayo is going to stay in AAA. I don’t like the idea of having O’Hearn, Holliday, Cowser, and Mullins in the same lineup vs RHP’s with Hays as the only legitimate RH PH option. Or the idea of starting 2 of Mullins/Cowser/Urias/McCann vs LHP’s in the playoffs (as CF and DH). 

It will be interesting to see what Elias does with the BP though. Even if Kimbrel pitches well, you gotta think they’re adding another backend guy just because he’s been prone to these stretches where he’s quite bad. And if Kimbrel doesn’t turn it around and can’t be trusted, they probably 2 need pieces as you said. The best closer target would probably be Helsley but Yimi Garcia would be a great add the way he’s pitching right now. And guys like Luis Garcia, Andrew Kittredge, and Austin Adams could be lower profile but solid adds as that potential second piece. 

There is no reason to trade for a RH bat because you aren’t likely to get anyone that is more of a help than Mayo.

That said, he needs to come up and adjust to this pitching.  As we have seen in recent articles/data, the pitching difference is big and Mayo has some swing and miss in his profile as it is. Let him get 200-300 at bats up here before the playoffs.  Give him some time to adjust.  No reason to use resources on something you already have.

We don’t need an Aaron Hicks type guy this year. We need a real difference maker.  If you want that Hicks type guy as a player off the bench in late innings, so be it. I can see value in that during the playoffs but we need something more than that big picture wise

[LGOrioles]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is no reason to trade for a RH bat because you aren’t likely to get anyone that is more of a help than Mayo.

That said, he needs to come up and adjust to this pitching.  As we have seen in recent articles/data, the pitching difference is big and Mayo has some swing and miss in his profile as it is. Let him get 200-300 at bats up here before the playoffs.  Give him some time to adjust.  No reason to use resources on something you already have.

We don’t need an Aaron Hicks type guy this year. We need a real difference maker.  If you want that Hicks type guy as a player off the bench in late innings, so be it. I can see value in that during the playoffs but we need something more than that big picture wise

I’m not sure who would be available but you’re right that the easiest solution would definitely be to bring up Mayo. Mullins has been almost unplayable against LHP’s the last 3 years (.206 avg and 69 wRC+) and even if you trust Cowser to play CF, that leaves the DH spot open against LHP’s, assuming you aren’t using Urias/McCann there, which you shouldn’t. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I’m not sure who would be available but you’re right that the easiest solution would definitely be to bring up Mayo. Mullins has been almost unplayable against LHP’s the last 3 years (.206 avg and 69 wRC+) and even if you trust Cowser to play CF, that leaves the DH spot open against LHP’s, assuming you aren’t using Urias/McCann there, which you shouldn’t. 

Right and we need that other RH bat in the lineup…and Mayo isn’t going to be that bat playing third and probably not first either, at least this year. (He could play third on occasion if they want to rest Gunnar or Holliday but for the most part, that’s not where he will play)

But DH and RF?  Yes, there will be at bats there.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Seeding matters very little but they will either be the 1 seed or the 4 seed imo.

If 3 beats 6 and 4 beats 5 during the ALWC series, I think the bracket is fixed and BAL-NYY with the league's two best records could occur in the 5-game ALDS round.

Same thing as last year with us and the Rays, but that time the Yankees weren't involved so the media volume will be louder about that this year, especially if they are the 4.

If we are the 4, it could mean Game 1 Dean Kremer in Yankee Stadium.

[Aristotelian]

I don't think Mullins, Cowser, or Hays are locks. However, we have assets in house to replace them if they fail. I agree though, we are 90% to make the playoffs. WS is the goal. The bottom of the bench doesnt matter. It's all about the top 9-10 players, 3 starters, and bullpen. Elite bullpen arm like the guy from STL would make this a complete team. 

[maybenxtyr]

They're really getting to the point where they need to do something with Urias or Mateo. Mateo seems to be in favor right now so Urias is the likely candidate to move for Mayo. Mayo could get 4-5 starts a week and hopefully provide some pop after an acclimation period. 

 

Mullins isn't going anywhere because they just don't have a reliable CF other than him.

 

Grab a BP arm or 2 and roll with what they have.

[Roy Firestone]

2 hours ago, FlaO'sFan said:

I don't know, I have more confidence/feeling that Mayo is going to be a bigger contributor than Holliday this year.

May take another week...he bruised his ribs on a fall today in a game...hes ok...but will miss the weekend series...

 

[Roy Firestone]

Yankees have won 8 of their last 10 and Judge is beginning  to heat up...another HR today...his 11th...and they'll get Cole back...theyre gonna be very tough to beat...im glad we won some games vs them early...

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Yankees have won 8 of their last 10 and Judge is beginning  to heat up...another HR today...his 11th...and they'll get Cole back...theyre gonna be very tough to beat...im glad we won some games vs them early...

Yes, they’re playing very well.  Since our series with them, the O’s are 7-3 and yet the Yankees took back first place by going 10-2 in that same span.  My theory is, we can only control what we do, not what other teams do.  Our job is to play well and not worry if some other team is hot.  Worry about the team we’re playing that night.  At least, that’s my thinking this time of year.  

[orioles119]

I don't see Adley in your initial list SG.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Barring a rash of injuries, the Os are going to be in the playoffs.  Seeding matters very little but they will either be the 1 seed or the 4 seed imo.

That said, the reason I mention this is because we have had a lot of discussions about replacing player X or player Y.

The reason to replace this guy or that guy isn’t to improve for the regular season…it’s to improve for the playoffs and give us the best chance to win.

With that in mind, by the time the playoffs get here, these are the players the team will be depending on, again barring injury, unexpected (or continuing) awful performanceor any potential trade:

Offensive players:  Mounty, Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Hays, Santander and OHearn.  
 

Pitchers: Burnes, Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Cano, DC, Kimbrel

 

That is 18 players.  Mateo and McCann will also be on the postseason roster but McCann isn’t likely to see the field, although Mateo will.

That leaves 6 spots.  Some of those spots may be filled by internal candidates for the pen or a guys like Mayo, Kjerstad and Norby.  Basallo could get in this picture but his continued slow start makes that even more unlikely than it was.

End of the day, the goal the rest of this season should be to get the roster to the point where they can win a title. 
 

For me, that means a few things:

1) Get 1 high leverage reliever and maybe 2.

2) Get Holliday up within the next 6 weeks.

3) Get Mayo playing time in RF now, so he can get up here in the second half and be ready to contribute. They could use his right handed bat.

As of now, you don’t trade for an offensive player or a starting pitcher unless there is one there that you can control for several years.

The resources the team has should go the pen and getting the right arm(s) for October. We consistently see teams go against the Orioles with these dominant pens where everyone is throwing 98+ with big time swing and miss stuff.  This is what the Os will be facing in the playoffs, so we need Holliday and Mayo to get up here to face that a lot and we need arms to match those guys in the playoffs.

For me, the playoffs are a foregone conclusion but success in the playoffs is not. This roster isn’t there yet for that but it can be. 

Yeah, I had a very similar reaction to the thread about upgrading McCann and Urias as well.  Those roster spots aren't what is going to define this season.

But I'm not sure I agree with your remedies.

1) I'm not against getting a high leverage reliever, but I'm not willing to give up value beyond Stowers and Norby, so I don't see how high leverage that gets you.

2) That sounds about right, but we don't know if he can outperform Mateo this year.

3) The only way there's really significant at-bats for Mayo in lieu of an injury is if he's a better defender than Santader in RF, or they feel comfortable w him in LF, and that seems highly unlikely.