The 2024 Trade Deadline

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Reds playoff odds are under 10%. Fernando Cruz makes perfect sense for this team.

"My splitter is a gift from God."

 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C890LR6ujMa/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

 

He is such an interesting case. Obviously the extraordinarily late “breakout” age, but you also just almost never see a true one-pitch pitcher in today’s game. Aside from the splitter, he has no ML-quality pitches.

The 4-seam fastball is mediocre at best in velocity for a reliever (94.6 MPH), it’s on the straighter side, and it gets tagged to the tune of a .405 wOBA (with a .400 xWOBA to match). It’s a bottom-tier 4-seamer. 

And then he throws a cutter 27% of the time. A cutter which is so bad that I can only imagine Palmer would have a coronary watching him continue to throw it. It is arguably the worst pitch in baseball this season, and over the course of his two ML seasons, hitters are posting a .486 wOBA against it. What’s most shocking is that StatCast suggests he’s been lucky to get that outcome, with a staggering .511 xWOBA on two seasons worth of cutters. 
 

Ah, but then you have that splitter. The gift from God. And it really is, to be honest. This is a dude who would be working some every day job like the rest of us if he didn’t somehow master that splitter. But he did, and now he’s making bank playing a game.

So far this season, 81 PAs ending on a splitter. Opponents have 4 hits against it (.056 BA). All those hits have been singles. 53 of those PAs ended with the hitter slinking back to the dugout (a cool 65.1% K rate), and it carries a 58.1% whiff rate. The average EV against the splitter this year is 76.7 MPH. The two-year wOBA on the splitter is .133, with a .137 xWOBA to match. Those are goofy numbers. Those are the numbers my 5-year-old nephew will put up against my best wiffleball arsenal this afternoon. 
 

In sum, really interesting guy. Only having one effective pitch concerns me — on the days when the splitter is not splitting, he’s useless. The splitter has gotten more effective this year, not less, so that does assuage some of my concerns about the league eventually getting the book on him and spitting on the splitter in order to wait for a chance to pulverize the other junk he tosses. But is he a guy you can run out 4-5 times against the same elite hitters in a short span in October? It just seems like they’d have to get a solid feel for him after seeing a few times back to back.

But if all it would cost is someone like Billy Cook, there’s really no harm done in finding out. 

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, e16bball said:

He is such an interesting case. Obviously the extraordinarily late “breakout” age, but you also just almost never see a true one-pitch pitcher in today’s game. Aside from the splitter, he has no ML-quality pitches.

The 4-seam fastball is mediocre at best in velocity for a reliever (94.6 MPH), it’s on the straighter side, and it gets tagged to the tune of a .405 wOBA (with a .400 xWOBA to match). It’s a bottom-tier 4-seamer. 

And then he throws a cutter 27% of the time. A cutter which is so bad that I can only imagine Palmer would have a coronary watching him continue to throw it. It is arguably the worst pitch in baseball this season, and over the course of his two ML seasons, hitters are posting a .486 wOBA against it. What’s most shocking is that StatCast suggests he’s been lucky to get that outcome, with a staggering .511 xWOBA on two seasons worth of cutters. 
 

Ah, but then you have that splitter. The gift from God. And it really is, to be honest. This is a dude who would be working some every day job like the rest of us if he didn’t somehow master that splitter. But he did, and now he’s making bank playing a game.

So far this season, 81 PAs ending on a splitter. Opponents have 4 hits against it (.056 BA). All those hits have been singles. 53 of those PAs ended with the hitter slinking back to the dugout (a cool 65.1% K rate), and it carries a 58.1% whiff rate. The average EV against the splitter this year is 76.7 MPH. The two-year wOBA on the splitter is .133, with a .137 xWOBA to match. Those are goofy numbers. Those are the numbers my 5-year-old nephew will put up against my best wiffleball arsenal this afternoon. 
 

In sum, really interesting guy. Only having one effective pitch concerns me — on the days when the splitter is not splitting, he’s useless. The splitter has gotten more effective this year, not less, so that does assuage some of my concerns about the league eventually getting the book on him and spitting on the splitter in order to wait for a chance to pulverize the other junk he tosses. But is he a guy you can run out 4-5 times against the same elite hitters in a short span in October? It just seems like they’d have to get a solid feel for him after seeing a few times back to back.

But if all it would cost is someone like Billy Cook, there’s really no harm done in finding out. 

Remember Komi Uehera?  Great splitter. The problem was you have to throw the fastball to set it up. He had an average fastball. The Red Sox did ride him to a WS though. 

[sportsfan8703]

What the heck, just play Mayo and Badallo this year. Mayo comes up ASAP. Badallo comes up 9/1 and does a 50/50 C/DH split with Adley in September.  Holliday comes up when he’s healthy. 
 

We roll into game 1 vs a RHP with,

1. Gunnar SS L

2. Adley C S

3. Basallo DH L

4. Mayo 3B R

5. Santa RF S

6. Kjerstad LF L

7. O’Hearn 1B L

8. Westburg 2B R

9. Mullins CF L

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hold up a second.

Are you saying Mountcastle is a better hitter than Witt?  I'm not sure he's better than Perez.

Ok …withhold Witt 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Basallo is untouchable. Just think of it this way… pretend like we don’t have the big 3. Pretend we just have Basallo. He might be Yordan Alvarez at C. 

We have plenty 4-40 to get Scherzer or Kikuchi. 

I don’t believe in untouchable wasting resources on rentals repeatedly is not wise. Nobody is untouchable for a controllable ace. 

[Allan Bryant]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Reds playoff odds are under 10%. Fernando Cruz makes perfect sense for this team.

"My splitter is a gift from God."

 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C890LR6ujMa/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

 

I can’t believe the Reds won the first two games against Yankees smh . But thanks Reds ! 

[Greg Pappas]

38 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What the heck, just play Mayo and Badallo this year. Mayo comes up ASAP. Badallo comes up 9/1 and does a 50/50 C/DH split with Adley in September.  Holliday comes up when he’s healthy. 
 

We roll into game 1 vs a RHP with,

1. Gunnar SS L

2. Adley C S

3. Basallo DH L

4. Mayo 3B R

5. Santa RF S

6. Kjerstad LF L

7. O’Hearn 1B L

8. Westburg 2B R

9. Mullins CF L

I thought this was meant tongue-in-cheek but see no emoticon suggesting so.  

I'd be surprised by Basallo batting 3rd and Mayo 4th if this were next season, much less this one.  Especially Basallo.

Edited Thursday at 17:40 by Greg Pappas

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What the heck, just play Mayo and Badallo this year. Mayo comes up ASAP. Badallo comes up 9/1 and does a 50/50 C/DH split with Adley in September.  Holliday comes up when he’s healthy. 
 

We roll into game 1 vs a RHP with,

1. Gunnar SS L

2. Adley C S

3. Basallo DH L

4. Mayo 3B R

5. Santa RF S

6. Kjerstad LF L

7. O’Hearn 1B L

8. Westburg 2B R

9. Mullins CF L

O’Hearn hits 7th (arguably the best hitter on the team) and Basallo (a guy in AA) hits 3rd in the playoffs?

I get that some think Basallo has the potential to be the next Bonds/Ruth. But this still isn’t MLB 24’ The Show. This game is played by human beings and there is no way that Hyde or any other manager would handle a clubhouse with real human personalities and veterans the way that is being suggested.

You get that right?

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Basallo is untouchable. Just think of it this way… pretend like we don’t have the big 3. Pretend we just have Basallo. He might be Yordan Alvarez at C. 

We have plenty 4-40 to get Scherzer or Kikuchi. 

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Orioles’ best trade chip is prospect Samuel Basallo and the belief is the front office may be willing to part with him at the MLB trade deadline in 

[Roll Tide]

Realistically, the only way Basallo is likely moved is in a trade for someone like Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert. While Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller does come with multiple years of control, he is still a reliever and one that comes with medical concerns. Miami Marlins outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. could be another option for Baltimore, but the Orioles front office might value Basallo’s long-term value and the ability to flip him this winter for a starting pitcher as a better option.

If the Orioles are truly willing to part ways with Basallo in the right deal, no team is better well-positioned to make the biggest move at the MLB trade deadline and any player Baltimore landed would stick around for several years.

 

https://sportsnaut.com/baltimore-orioles-rumors-trade-samuel-basallo/

[Three Run Homer]

The Nats should be sellers this year.  They have several good starting pitchers but need more offense in their system.  Could be a match.  

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

O’Hearn hits 7th (arguably the best hitter on the team) and Basallo (a guy in AA) hits 3rd in the playoffs?

I get that some think Basallo has the potential to be the next Bonds/Ruth. But this still isn’t MLB 24’ The Show. This game is played by human beings and there is no way that Hyde or any other manager would handle a clubhouse with real human personalities and veterans the way that is being suggested.

You get that right?

They all have to prove it.  Especially in win now mode.  I don't think Basallo has the time to prove it to that degree.  It's not for lack of skill.  But Mayo might have both the skill and time.  And he could bump a few thumper down the list in 2024.  At least it's a non-zero thing chance...  

[sportsfan8703]

57 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I thought this was meant tongue-in-cheek but see no emoticon suggesting so.  

I'd be surprised by Basallo batting 3rd and Mayo 4th if this were next season, much less this one.  Especially Basallo.

3rd and 4th was. Haha. But do we really need to be shocked at how good these two guys are?  Doesn’t seem too crazy. 

Edited Thursday at 18:32 by sportsfan8703

[vab]

What about Chris Bassitt for the rotation? I remember some rumors that the Orioles had interest when he signed with Toronto. He's got about $33 million left for the rest of this year and next. Aside from the help for the rest of this year and assuming Burnes is gone, they're going to need an anchor-type who can give them 180-200 innings. I definitely wouldn't go Mayo, Basallo or Holiday in a deal but maybe a McDermott, a couple in the Norby, Beavers, Etzel, Fabian, Cook level and maybe one of the young international prospects. 

[Allan Bryant]

While I am impressed with Basallo’s performance , are we forgetting that he is ONLY 19 years old ?  Or he is at AA level ?   And we want bring him up this season ?  SMH