The 2024 Trade Deadline

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm all for creativity. However, it should come down to what is best for the Orioles. Is Mayo a better defensive 3B than Holliday a better defensive 2B? The one who is worse goes to the outfield. It should be as simple as that.

It’s not that simple.  What if Mayo is a terrible RF and Holliday is a GG caliber CF?

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

On Elias’ board he’s definitely markered in to be a 1:1 replacement for Santa.

People cry, but what about how Elias stuck with our guys in Cowser, and Stowers, and didn’t run out and sign Hicks. 

For the deadline, I think we need to “fresh” arms. Closer obviously as one. It would also be nice to get a LH 3B/2B that brings some OBP and can take advantage of our ballpark in RF. With Westburg being able to play 3B/2B it opens up the player pool to LH 3B as well. 

I think about how Elias stuck with Rio Ruiz when I think about what he's going to do with Heston Kjerstad.

I mean he's also probably going to non-tender him in late Arb because of the age and efficiency and all that stuff but he also means to get his production from his guy.

I do think Kjerstad could be a key piece in a big trade this July but if he's here the club's investment in him is far larger than those other third outfielder contenders.

Guessing one of The Ryans will be traded before Opening Day, I believe Adley, Ryan, Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad, Mayo are the Top 9 for 2025 opening day lineup, and there's a decent gap down to Mateo, Hays (an expensive reserve outfielder...), Norby and a catcher.

It'll be bad news if that LH 3B/2B bringing some OBP can't be Jackson Holliday by later this summer.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Why should it be the determining factor?   Maybe Mayo is an average 3B and a terrible RF.  Maybe 3B is his best position.   Maybe Holliday fits a bigger need by being the long term answer in CF.

That's one way to look at it.

Another way to look at it is - What if Mayo is average at best at 3B and Holliday is above average at 2B and average or below average at CF? Who knows until they get out there on the grass?

My position is that I would hate to weaken two positions especially a position as important as CF. RF is far less important than 3B or CF IMO.

But you may be correct in that Mayo cannot handle a position change. The same could be true for Holliday. If that is the case, you need to trade one?

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

It’s not that simple.  What if Mayo is a terrible RF and Holliday is a GG caliber CF?

Then that's a no-brainer. I guess I would hope that if Holliday has GG potential in CF the org would have been able to see that and not have him playing 2B. Maybe not?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

That's one way to look at it.

Another way to look at it is - What if Mayo is average at best at 3B and Holliday is above average at 2B and average or below average at CF? Who knows until they get out there on the grass?

My position is that I would hate to weaken two positions especially a position as important as CF. RF is far less important than 3B or CF IMO.

But you may be correct in that Mayo cannot handle a position change. The same could be true for Holliday. If that is the case, you need to trade one?

Yeah, now we agree.  There’s more than one way to look at it.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Then that's a no-brainer. I guess I would hope that if Holliday has GG potential in CF the org would have been able to see that and not have him playing 2B. Maybe not?

Well, they had Holliday playing mostly SS all last year.   Things change.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, now we agree.  There’s more than one way to look at it.  

If acknowledgment/validation was all you were looking for, I would have done that weeks ago and spared both of us all this back and forth...lol

[Bemorewins]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Well, they had Holliday playing mostly SS all last year.   Things change.

I don't think was a good idea nor the wisest use of his development time, especially as it became quite apparent that Gunnar was the best SS in the org. But the Orioles don't always operate in a way that makes sense to me (and who am I but some random yahoo on a message board?). So there's that.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

If acknowledgment/validation was all you were looking for, I would have done that weeks ago and spared both of us all this back and forth...lol

I was just looking for you to acknowledge that it’s possible, not likely, that Holliday could wind up in CF, especially if Mayo were to come up and do well defensively and offensively at 3B.   You are/were stubborn.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I was just looking for you to acknowledge that it’s possible, not likely, that Holliday could wind up in CF, especially if Mayo were to come up and do well defensively and offensively at 3B.   You are/were stubborn.

I usually don't discuss/think about all the possibilities. Since there are so many of them. I usually tend to talk about/think about what are the most probable scenarios. 

By the way, you aren't the first person who has called me stubborn and probably won't be the last...lol

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I’ve mulled over the idea when thinking about targets like Crochet. Then i come to the realization of no way. Especially when you see how many pitchers are getting injured. The Red Sox traded Yoan Moncada who was number 2 prospect for Chris Sale. Crochet is far from Sale but having an excellent year. 

Zero evidence if Crochet can hold up to a full season of starting and even if he does, we need to make sure he holds up the following season as well.

[Just Regular]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Marlins are DFA’ing Avisail Garcia. He is due 17M next year (plus a buyout in 2026) plus whatever he is owed this year. Let’s just say he’s owed about 24M.

If you get Nardi and Meyer while taking on that deal and not giving up much, would you do that?

Say the deal was Urias, Carlos Tavera, Rhodes and a guy like Baumler for Nardi, Meyer and Garcia…would you make that move?  
 

In essence, would you be buying Nardi and Meyer because you are taking on the contract.  Is that worth it to you?

This post could almost make someone think the Baseball Trade Values analyzer was used to get to a net zero, but I know that would never ever happen, especially since the paywall.

Avisail could be interesting for somebody as an Aaron Hicks type if they think they see something they can fix.

Unless Peter Bendix has an ownership mandate to prioritize financial relief, I think he would rather buy a prospect than sell one as talent accumulation occurs.

[Just Regular]

25 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I’ve mulled over the idea when thinking about targets like Crochet. Then i come to the realization of no way. Especially when you see how many pitchers are getting injured. The Red Sox traded Yoan Moncada who was number 2 prospect for Chris Sale. Crochet is far from Sale but having an excellent year. 

I think the young Chris Sale trade might be ballpark similar if the Tigers opt to move Skubal.

[Just Regular]

A big majority voted No in the offseason on the hypothetical if you'd give Gunnar for Spencer Strider or George Kirby, and that take is looking good.

Would either of Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal be enough to tempt you to give the Holliday long run to get those pitchers in your mix the next run of seasons?

[Spy Fox]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

A big majority voted No in the offseason on the hypothetical if you'd give Gunnar for Spencer Strider or George Kirby, and that take is looking good.

Would either of Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal be enough to tempt you to give the Holliday long run to get those pitchers in your mix the next run of seasons?

Skubal, don't think so. 2.5 years to FA isn't enough.

Skenes, worth considering. He's a game changer. I think Holliday will be too. But I have high confidence in having a great infield corps for the next 5 years, no matter what happens with Holliday. The rotation forecast isn't as certain. 

But, I was in that minority that voted Yes on Gunnar for Strider, which is indeed looking like a bad vote.