Extend Burnes

[Pickles]

52 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I love Burnes but wouldn't want to pay what it takes. We still have Ortiz/Hall level prospects we can trade for the next Burnes. Remember we get a comp pick when he walks.

Do we?

The only guys in Ortiz' range are Kjerstad and Basallo.

Are we open to trading them?  For rentals?

[spleen1015]

Takes two to tango.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Do we?

The only guys in Ortiz' range are Kjerstad and Basallo.

Are we open to trading them?  For rentals?

I would be open to trading a Basallo or Mayo for a TOR guy with multiple years of control. Kjerstad and Norby both have top 100 resumes. Stowers could have some value. Bradfield and Beavers aren't top 100 yet but could be knocking on the door. 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would be open to trading a Basallo or Mayo for a TOR guy with multiple years of control. Kjerstad and Norby both have top 100 resumes. Stowers could have some value. Bradfield and Beavers aren't top 100 yet but could be knocking on the door. 

Norby, Stowers, Bradfield, and Beavers are not on Ortiz' level.

Basallo, Mayo, and Kjerstad are.  Higher in fact.

However, Ortiz got one year of a top rotation guy with a "throw in" that was likewise a top 100 guy.

It's possible you could get a TOR guy- not on Burnes' level- for a package built around one of those three.  But there's hardly a guarantee and most posters have been adamant about not parting with Basallo or Mayo.

[ChosenOne21]

I mean, those insane numbers are the price of top talent starting pitching. While we're certainly capable of it, I don't completely trust nor want to completely rely on our ability to develop top talent starting pitching. Maybe Burnes isn't the guy, but at some point if we want to win the World Series or even keep winning we're going to have to take a huge gamble on a guy like him.

[tntoriole]

So what team will spend the money? Dodgers? Yankees? Rangers?   If it is not a good idea from a baseball standpoint , why would other teams do it? 

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

Norby, Stowers, Bradfield, and Beavers are not on Ortiz' level.

Basallo, Mayo, and Kjerstad are.  Higher in fact.

However, Ortiz got one year of a top rotation guy with a "throw in" that was likewise a top 100 guy.

It's possible you could get a TOR guy- not on Burnes' level- for a package built around one of those three.  But there's hardly a guarantee and most posters have been adamant about not parting with Basallo or Mayo.

Agreed. The question is what Bradfield/Beavers might get us 9-10 months from now, as they progress and other guys graduate. I think Ortiz was actually the second piece in the Burnes deal... But regardless both Hall and Ortiz were both in the bottom half of the top 100, a level below Mayo/Basallo. I'm just not going to hold my breath on a Burnes/Cole type signing. Even with our new owners there is always going to be teams who can outbid us. The guy I'd really covet is Roki Sasaki but appears the Dodgers have the inside track.

[baltfan]

Burnes has said repeatedly he has waited this long, he wants to be a free agent.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

So what team will spend the money? Dodgers? Yankees? Rangers?   If it is not a good idea from a baseball standpoint , why would other teams do it? 

The other teams are all dumb.  That's also why they draft pitchers in the first place.

Ever team should only draft hitters and then trade for pitchers.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The other teams are all dumb.  That's also why they draft pitchers in the first place.

Ever team should only draft hitters and then trade for pitchers.

Unless you basically have infinite resources to spend to fill any hole. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Unless you basically have infinite resources to spend to fill any hole. 

So no other teams.

They are all big dumb dumbs.

[Moose Milligan]

Count me as nervous about the decline in K rates too. 

[EddeeEddee]

I don't think there's anyone in next season's free agent class at Burnes' level who doesn't either have an injury history (Bieber, Buehler, Cole, Fried) or who is old (Morton, Scherzer, Verlander), or who is in some kind of opt out or option status (Cole, Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery, Robbie Ray, Snell, Peralta).

Outside of those guys it's mostly the usual tier below like Alex Cobb, Kyle Hendricks, Paxton, Flaherty, etc.

And I think all off these guys are 30+ or will be by next season. 

If you choose not to pursue Burnes because of his age and declining strike out rate -- combined with cost -- then I don't see how you can realistically pursue any other free agent starter at a similar level.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, EddeeEddee said:

I don't think there's anyone in next season's free agent class at Burnes' level who doesn't either have an injury history (Bieber, Buehler, Cole, Fried) or who is old (Morton, Scherzer, Verlander), or who is in some kind of opt out or option status (Cole, Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery, Robbie Ray, Snell, Peralta).

Outside of those guys it's mostly the usual tier below like Alex Cobb, Kyle Hendricks, Paxton, Flaherty, etc.

And I think all off these guys are 30+ or will be by next season. 

If you choose not to pursue Burnes because of his age and declining strike out rate -- combined with cost -- then I don't see how you can realistically pursue any other free agent starter at a similar level.

It takes very little work to talk yourself out of any free agent pitcher.

With no idea of where payroll is going to sit under new ownership it's hard to even speculate.

[EddeeEddee]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It takes very little work to talk yourself out of any free agent pitcher.

With no idea of where payroll is going to sit under new ownership it's hard to even speculate.

I think the Ubaldo Jimenez contract is still the largest the O's have ever given out to a free agent starter.  

Personally, I think it makes more sense to spend big on an elite free agent starter than on elite position players.  

Of course they have to be cautious in how and who they identify as elite, but I think they should bid for Burnes, and not just a token bid -- a real bid.