Heston Kjerstad 2024

[btdart20]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s not as straight forward as you say.

First of all, you said the key words..career WAR. What are the chances we keep him for his entire career?

So then it’s really, what do you expect out of him the next 3-5 years and does that production outweigh what a player like Skubal can give you and does it outweigh our long term need for starters?

Skubal was worth 3.3 fWAR in 15 starts last year and 2.9 in 17 this year. He’s a 4-6 WAR starter and maybe more outside of Detroit.

Good chance Skubal out WARs this whole package for the next 2 years and if that happens, he makes it easier for us to win a title.

No way any competing team trades a controllable Nelson Cruz (if that's who HK is) for Skubal.  A lot depends on that 'if' which is where the discussion comes in.  But if you're 100% convinced HK = Cruz, nope.  Plug and play every day MOO and a #3 SP (from other prospects) is the path.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

No way any competing team trades a controllable Nelson Cruz (if that's who HK is) for Skubal.  A lot depends on that 'if' which is where the discussion comes in.  But if you're 100% convinced HK = Cruz, nope.  Plug and play every day MOO and a #3 SP (from other prospects) is the path.

It’s kind of ridiculous to put Kjerstad in the Nelson Cruz bucket at this stage of his career.   We pretty much know what Skubal is.   Kjertad could be Jay Gibbons for all we know.   

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s kind of ridiculous to put Kjerstad in the Nelson Cruz bucket at this stage of his career.   We pretty much know what Skubal is.   Kjertad could be Jay Gibbons for all we know.   

Every bit a ridiculous as Skubal being on the trading block,  but here we are talking about it.

[Jim'sKid26]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s not as straight forward as you say.

First of all, you said the key words..career WAR. What are the chances we keep him for his entire career?

So then it’s really, what do you expect out of him the next 3-5 years and does that production outweigh what a player like Skubal can give you and does it outweigh our long term need for starters?

Skubal was worth 3.3 fWAR in 15 starts last year and 2.9 in 17 this year. He’s a 4-6 WAR starter and maybe more outside of Detroit.

Good chance Skubal out WARs this whole package for the next 2 years and if that happens, he makes it easier for us to win a title.

With Skubal's injury history you could get almost nothing. 

I see your point. These trades are always risk/reward. As I pointed out in your trade proposal thread, which by the way I really think is well done by you, pitching is expensive and when purchased at the deadline in extremely expensive. 

[Bemorewins]

55 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

No way any competing team trades a controllable Nelson Cruz (if that's who HK is) for Skubal.  A lot depends on that 'if' which is where the discussion comes in.  But if you're 100% convinced HK = Cruz, nope.  Plug and play every day MOO and a #3 SP (from other prospects) is the path.

In Nelson Cruz's first 6 full MLB seasons he only put up greater than 2.0 WAR one time. The Nelson Cruz that played for the Orioles that one season at aged 34 was about 10 seasons in and his absolute apex (well it actually was the next year with SEA) in terms of WAR.

Tarik Skubal has almost a 4.0 WAR (3.9 to be exact) this current season alone so far.

[e16bball]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

No way any competing team trades a controllable Nelson Cruz (if that's who HK is) for Skubal.  A lot depends on that 'if' which is where the discussion comes in.  But if you're 100% convinced HK = Cruz, nope.  Plug and play every day MOO and a #3 SP (from other prospects) is the path.

If you got controllable mid-career Nelson Cruz, sure. 

The actual controllable Nelson Cruz was worth about 13 fWAR over 7 seasons (age 24-31), with a 112 wRC+. 

The much older 146 wRC+ version of Cruz was obviously a plug and play MOO bat. But for much of his career, he was basically Austin Hays. That’s the problem with guys that can’t give you much defensively — the margin for error is pretty slim on the offensive end. You’re either an elite hitter or else you’re mostly replaceable. 

[Bemorewins]

44 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Every bit a ridiculous as Skubal being on the trading block,  but here we are talking about it.

I don't know if he is or isn't (I have zero knowledge about his trade status). But I'm curious to why you believe that it is "ridiculous".

DET is not going anywhere and have not been in the playoffs with Skubal. They are 21st in runs scored, have one good offensive player (Riley Greene) and one young promising offensive player (Colt Keith) who has yet to put it together in his first season. They have no top position prospects who are close to MLB ready (matching Skubal's roster timeline). They best prospect, Max Clark, while very promising, is 19 at single A.

They have the 23rd ranked payroll for 2024 at about 107 million (which ironically is a little higher than ours this year), so maybe they could buy a bat or 2 in FA? But how willing are they going to be to do that given what happened/is happening with Javier Baez?

Having stated these things, and given the frequency of injuries of pitchers (and their value depreciation) I think it would be very prudent of them to consider moving Tarik Skubal now. They are not going anywhere with him (this season and probably for the duration of his years of control left).

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s not as straight forward as you say.

First of all, you said the key words..career WAR. What are the chances we keep him for his entire career?

So then it’s really, what do you expect out of him the next 3-5 years and does that production outweigh what a player like Skubal can give you and does it outweigh our long term need for starters?

Skubal was worth 3.3 fWAR in 15 starts last year and 2.9 in 17 this year. He’s a 4-6 WAR starter and maybe more outside of Detroit.

Good chance Skubal out WARs this whole package for the next 2 years and if that happens, he makes it easier for us to win a title.

Why would Skubal be worth more WAR outside of Detroit?

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Every bit a ridiculous as Skubal being on the trading block,  but here we are talking about it.

Detroit is kind of caught in purgatory now.  Working on their 8th straight losing season after a poorly executed rebuild attempt.  I’m not sure they will or should trade Skubal, but I sure can’t say they shouldn’t.  Is it realistic to think they could contend in 2025 and 2026?  Their farm system is average.   Torkelson’s a flop.  They’ve basically got one above average player in their entire lineup.  Not a great situation.  Very similar to when Andy McPhail took over in 2007.  Is Skubal their Bedard?

[baltfan]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Detroit is kind of caught in purgatory now.  Working on their 8th straight losing season after a poorly executed rebuild attempt.  I’m not sure they will or should trade Skubal, but I sure can’t say they shouldn’t.  Is it realistic to think they could contend in 2025 and 2026?  Their farm system is average.   Torkelson’s a flop.  They’ve basically got one above average player in their entire lineup.  Not a great situation.  Very similar to when Andy McPhail took over in 2007.  Is Skubal their Bedard?

Skubal is their Bedard and they would be foolish not to move him if they could get a package like the Orioles got. However, I think teams value their top end prospects more than they used to.  On SD seems to be willing to move really high end guys. And the Soto trade is a borderline disaster for them. 

[Roy Firestone]

I wouldn't trade Kjerstad straight up for Skubal...or almost anyone. I believe this player is going to be special. Norby? Stowers? McDermott(who is beginning to impress me) sure...but not Kjerstad or Mayo. Or Basalo for that. matter...we have a lot of options and pieces..we dont LITERALLY have to give  up the farm(or players who excelled in the farm).

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Roy Firestone said:

I wouldn't trade Kjerstad straight up for Skubal...or almost anyone. I believe this player is going to be special. Norby? Stowers? McDermott(who is beginning to impress me) sure...but not Kjerstad or Mayo. Or Basalo for that. matter...we have a lot of options and pieces..we dont LITERALLY have to give  up the farm(or players who excelled in the farm).

That’s totally unrealistic.  If a team wants Skubal, they’re going to have to give up a couple of guys who are very likely to become impact major leaguers.  Not the Stowers or Norby’s of the world.  

You’d rather keep the top guys in our farm system?  Fine, just realize that’s going to limit the kind of players we acquire pretty significantly.  
 

[Malike]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s totally unrealistic.  If a team wants Skubal, they’re going to have to give up a couple of guys who are very likely to become impact major leaguers.  Not the Stowers or Norby’s of the world.  

You’d rather keep the top guys in our farm system?  Fine, just realize that’s going to limit the kind of players we acquire pretty significantly.  
 

Even in the silly Skubal proposal thread, people are suggesting the Tigers would be foolish not to trade him but Kjerstad and Mountcastle, McDermott and Bradfield are too much. The Tigers just need to trade for our 25-30th prospects as that should get it done.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

Even in the silly Skubal proposal thread, people are suggesting the Tigers would be foolish not to trade him but Kjerstad and Mountcastle, McDermott and Bradfield are too much. The Tigers just need to trade for our 25-30th prospects as that should get it done.

What they’re really saying is that the Tigers would be foolish not to trade him to some team other than the Orioles that will pony up.

[Greg Pappas]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Every bit a ridiculous as Skubal being on the trading block,  but here we are talking about it.

It’s not ridiculous when national writers have mentioned the possibility as well as yours truly