In regards to guys like Pie and Penn....

[TiredofLosing20]

Somebody has to explain to me why it makes sense to not give Penn 8-10 starts. If he sucks we waive him. You have to give him an opportunity, I mean a real opportunity. Someone else mentioned Daniel Cabrera. The guy was given opportunity after opportunity. There were many willing to give him another opportunity this year. Based on our current situation, three teams that are clearly better than us in our division and one that is probably better than us coupled with the fact that no one else has stepped up I see no reason not to give Penn an opportunity. Personally, I think he will suck but guess what, I am not sure. What I am pretty sure about is that Eaton and Hendrickson will most likely not be on the team in 2010 and definately not be on the team in 2011. We are supposed to be building for the future, why not take 8-10 starts to get a little larger sample size. I just don't see the hurt in it.

Pie is a little bit different. I disagreed with trading Olson for him. I was willing to give Olson another opportunity. But that doesn't matter now, Pie is here and he needs to be given an opportunity too. I am willing to give him a much longer leash than Penn but we need to understand what we have and this is the year to do that.

I find it amazing that there are people that really want to see Eaton and Hendrickson in the rotation over Penn. Its all about the future folks not April and May 2009

[O'sWhyNot52]

How many chances does Penn need?

How many has he really had? He's healthy finally, what can it hurt to give him the ball and let him show us.

[GotNitro]

I have nothing against giving Pie a chance. Not sure we needed him with Luke and Riemold being around, but that's another story. He is here, give him a shot. My only problem with Penn is that the times I have seen him pitch in the last year, which is only a few, he has consistantly had a problem with throwing strikes. He pitches into a lot of full counts, and that will raise his pitch count; thus, the relievers have to come into the games early and then we run into the usual problem of wearing out the bullpen. I would prefer that they give him a shot in the bullpen, whereas his pitch count won't matter as much. I see him as a mid-game three inning relief pitcher.

[glorydays]

Moore didn't perform horribly at the ML level in his very limited ABs while Penn has bombed in every opportunity given to him and he didn't exactly set AAA on fire either when he was healthy last season.

Moore is also in a position where the Orioles don't have a ton of depth and Penn is. It's a lot easier to replace Hayden Penn than it is Scott Moore.

Moore also went out and proved that he belonged in the majors in ST and the only reason he was sent down was because the Orioles couldn't manage a roster properly and didn't have quality talent at certain positions. What has Penn done this spring to show that he really wants a rotation slot? Ditto for Pie. What has Pie done on the field and at the plate to show he's worthy of the full time LF job?

I believe a player should earn their place on the team if they are in a competition and not just be handed it because they are out of options or because they are a veteran. I'm not fond of Eaton in the rotation, but he's earned a spot because he wasn't one of the worst pitchers in camp. Penn has not and he was.

This is still the major leagues where the cream of the crop should be playing. Penn and Pie have yet to prove in their given stints, that they can harness their talent to be in that cream of the crop. Just because we appear to be tanking the season doesn't mean that those two shouldn't have to earn their place.

But....

(Don't go any further, he isn't going to listen to you)

But don't you think we should give him the facts?

(It doesn't matter what the facts are.)

But they show that he is just wrong. Pie hit way better last year in AAA than Moore...

(He'll just say that Moore was upset, was hitting in a pitchers ballpark and was under extreme pressure because the O's wanted to see if he can play at another position)

But what about their ML stats. I mean, we can at least show that neither of them have taken advantage of the opportunities they were given, right?

(You are using common sense and that doesn't apply in this argument. You need to stop worrying about it).

But I want Trea to understand that his arguments contradict themselves...

(JUST LET IT GO!!!!)

OK... I'm letting it go - for today...

[nadecir]

I think the interesting question here is when do enough at-bats and innings pitched equate to a good enough try-out and you can have a reasonable impression of whether a player will make it or not.

For example, the Orioles determined that in about 44 innings of pitching at the major league level that John Maine most likely could not be an adequate pitcher in the majors. Maybe that was not long enough.

Felix Pie slugged .802 in the PCL in 358 plate appearances in 2008, which made him a league average hitter there. Pie made seven errors in the outfield in the PCL last year. Pie has 287 plate appearances in the majors so far in his career, and has an OPS of .615 to show for it. Felix Pie is 24 now.

Hayden Penn has a pitched 58 innings in the majors with an ERA+ of 47 to show for it. In his last season at AAA, Penn pitched to 4.79 ERA in Norfolk, a park that favors pitchers.

I think it is safe to say that every at bat, and every inning pitched in the majors adds to the ability to predict whether these two players will ever reach a level of at least a replacement player in the majors. Every spring training at-bat or inning pitched gives us a every, very small clue in this ability to predict also, but not nearly as much as extended time in the regular season in the majors. Look at it this way. One at-bat gives very little indication of a hitter's potential. 50 at-bats give more indications of a hitter's potential. 500 at-bats even more.

One of the best prediction systems out there, PECOTA, says their best prediction is that Pie will slug to .768 OPS in 2009. That's certainly good enough for me to give Pie a chance to see if he will actually do it, no matter what he does in spring training. All the projections systems seem pretty consistent about Felix Pie.

Pitching is more difficult to predict and there is a wide variability in the predictions for Hayden Penn this system. I think you have to trust the Orioles' coaching staff on whether they believe that Penn has the stuff to succeed at the major league level at this point.

[Flosman]

Keeping Penn probably means going with 13 pitchers, which means a three man bench, which also means less rest for the position players and less options for Trembley to substitute in games.

I guess we could cut Baez to go with 12 pitchers, but he's pitched better than Penn and I think that would just be a waste considering he can be a dominant reliever given the right situation.

Besides, I just don't see the Orioles eating that salary when they are paying Gibbons still not to play for us.

This is a flawed argument. In a real rebuilding year you really make decisions based on getting and keeping above average talent. You still try to win, however it is secondary to improving the talent. Therefore you do not trade control over a young guy that has a ceiling of a number 2 for the 3 wins, which a better bench or even a better veteran number 5 might bring. Penn has been a disappointment for sure his ceiling is still a number 2 and he is young. The young studs are not ready and he is in no ones way at this time. What is the downside of making a spot for him and hoping he comes around? He is not as talented as the next wave coming, IMO, but if you have a 2 or 3 in the 5 spot in the rotation you are going to be pretty good. The Eaton's of the world are never going to make you pretty good IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is a flawed argument. In a real rebuilding year you really make decisions based on getting and keeping above average talent. You still try to win, however it is secondary to improving the talent. Therefore you do not trade control over a young guy that has a ceiling of a number 2 for the 3 wins, which a better bench or even a better veteran number 5 might bring. Penn has been a disappointment for sure his ceiling is still a number 2 and he is young. The young studs are not ready and he is in no ones way at this time. What is the downside of making a spot for him and hoping he comes around? He is not as talented as the next wave coming, IMO, but if you have a 2 or 3 in the 5 spot in the rotation you are going to be pretty good. The Eaton's of the world are never going to make you pretty good IMO.

I think you have to question whether that #2 ceiling is still true, and if it still means anything. Since his 88 good innings in 2006 he's pitched like a #4 or #5, in a AAA rotation. He simply hasn't performed at a level that you need to play in the major leagues. Maybe it's too early to give up on him, but all we're going on right now is Penn's scouting reports and performance from three years ago. I'm all for letting him sort things out in the pen rather than release him, but I have very few expectations for success.

[Flosman]

I think you have to question whether that #2 ceiling is still true, and if it still means anything. Since his 88 good innings in 2006 he's pitched like a #4 or #5, in a AAA rotation. He simply hasn't performed at a level that you need to play in the major leagues. Maybe it's too early to give up on him, but all we're going on right now is Penn's scouting reports and performance from three years ago.

I agree that it appears unlikely that he will reach the level once thought likely. However the stuff is still there just no consistancy from inning to inning. But really what does Eaton bring to the table for us?

[TinCup]

I agree that it appears unlikely that he will reach the level once thought likely. However the stuff is still there just no consistancy from inning to inning. But really what does Eaton bring to the table for us?

"Veteranacity?"

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree that it appears unlikely that he will reach the level once thought likely. However the stuff is still there just no consistancy from inning to inning. But really what does Eaton bring to the table for us?

Nothing at all. But I have a suspicion that Penn is Adam Eaton right now.

PECOTA weighted means: Penn, 87 innings of a 6.27. Eaton, 61 innings of a 5.77.

I think the most likely scenario is that no matter which one you pick Bergesen is in his spot in the rotation in six weeks.

[Frobby]

I think you have to question whether that #2 ceiling is still true, and if it still means anything. Since his 88 good innings in 2006 he's pitched like a #4 or #5, in a AAA rotation. He simply hasn't performed at a level that you need to play in the major leagues. Maybe it's too early to give up on him, but all we're going on right now is Penn's scouting reports and performance from three years ago. I'm all for letting him sort things out in the pen rather than release him, but I have very few expectations for success.

It's an old story. We wanted to believe Matt Riley was his old self after his first arm surgery, but he never really was. We wanted to believe Adam Loewen's elbow fracture was in the past, and we know what happened there.

There is no one injury Penn has had that was devastating, but when you add up all the problems that have kept him off the field, the loss of regular pitching time, and the loss of velocity and command, you have to say the odds are that he's just never going to be nearly as good as we hoped he'd be back in 2005-06.

By the way, I don't really buy the idea that he is still building up arm strength, more than any other pitcher this time of year. He was shut down about 3 weeks before the end of last season, so why should he be much worse off than anyone whose season ended last August?

[TiredofLosing20]

I agree that it appears unlikely that he will reach the level once thought likely. However the stuff is still there just no consistancy from inning to inning. But really what does Eaton bring to the table for us?

According to some, 10-12 QSs in 2009.

[tvz1997]

But really what does Eaton bring to the table for us?

Just a guess at this point, but I would say more innings per start. A 6.00 era is bad enough, but it's better when it iss giving you some innings for a month or two. Of course, that argument goes out the window if Penn is a reliever.

[amateurfan]

Yep....It is the typical Dave Trembley double standard.

Today, Trembley expressed that the does indeed view ST differently for position players and pitchers.

From Roch

Does Eaton's track record work in his favor, even if the spring results are poor?

"I don't think that's necessarily the way I want to go," Trembley said. "I want to evaluate what I see, not a track record. I think it's a little bit different for position players."

I don't know why he does. It seems strange to me, and I don't really buy it either. This is DT on Sherrill the other day,

""In his case, you have to discount spring training," Trembley said. "He's never been very good in the spring. He's said that, I think he has a track record of that, and I think you base your decision on what he did for us last year and go from there."

So, DT is not consistent. Not a big deal really. Nobody is perfectly consistent, but it'd be nice to know his explanation for why some players' track records are important and others' are not. This seems to me to be a bad way to plan a roster.

[zff4]

Today, Trembley expressed that the does indeed view ST differently for position players and pitchers.

This seems to me to be a bad way to plan a roster.

With respect to pitching, DT is working his roster within a plan that is already set by the Warehouse. His hands are tied, unfortunately, and I expect he looks forward to 2010 already.