Zach Eflin 2024

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, Dunk35 said:

He's already under contract for next year. I would see if we could add the 3/45 for 2026-2028. 

Why would he sign a deal for less money than he’s making now when he’s pitching so well?

[bobmc]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He moves with a purpose, such a magnificent purpose.

Cacaphonic equilibrium, the art of noise 

[Dunk35]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would he sign a deal for less money than he’s making now when he’s pitching so well?

Age? Scared of what happened to FA SPs last offseason? Security on a winning ball club? Security against injury?

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Dunk35 said:

Age? Scared of what happened to FA SPs last offseason? Security on a winning ball club? Security against injury?

None of that passes the smell test. He’s not signing that deal.

[Rbiggs2525]

I’d try to work out a mutual option for 2026. Something like the one Snell has but for around 20 million.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I’d try to work out a mutual option for 2026. Something like the one Snell has but for around 20 million.

Why would he do that?  He can get a QO for more money.

The reality is that no one, on either side, should be doing anything until you see him pitch more. He’s only going to sign an extension right now if blown away and the Os don’t have enough info to blow him away. 
 

He just had a shoulder injury. Probably not a big deal but doesn’t mean it won’t become a bigger deal. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

If he's even a league-average starting pitcher next year, he'll get considerably more than 3/45 as a free agent. You'd probably have to offer him something like 4/80 before he even considers it, and I doubt he signs even that.

When Eflin was a 29-year old free agent he got a 3/$40 mm deal with Tampa.  By the time he’s a free agent again, he’ll be three years older.  Now, he’s been healthier and better in 2023-24 than in 2021-22.   But still, I’m not sure he’ll get 4/$80 mm starting at age 32.   

[Sports Guy]

I think a 2 year bigger money deal is something that could happen but again, only after more info.

Something like 2/50. 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When Eflin was a 29-year old free agent he got a 3/$40 mm deal with Tampa.  By the time he’s a free agent again, he’ll be three years older.  Now, he’s been healthier and better in 2023-24 than in 2021-22.   But still, I’m not sure he’ll get 4/$80 mm starting at age 32.   

He will have also banked over $50M by that time. His family is set financially for at least a couple generations. He doesn't need to keep abusing his body and spending time away from the kids unless someone makes it really worth his while. Whether he gets 4/$80, he might not pitch for much less than that, at least on an AAC basis. At that age it probably makes more sense for both sides to go a year at a time but higher AAV. I don't see his interest in a team friendly deal at this point 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He will have also banked over $50M by that time. His family is set financially for at least a couple generations. He doesn't need to keep abusing his body and spending time away from the kids unless someone makes it really worth his while. Whether he gets 4/$80, he might not pitch for much less than that, at least on an AAC basis. At that age it probably makes more sense for both sides to go a year at a time but higher AAV. I don't see his interest in a team friendly deal at this point 

I don’t see any reason he’d be doing the Orioles any favors.   The O’s made it real clear they were happy to have Eflin under contract for $18 mm next year, so they think he’s worth at least that much right now.  

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He will have also banked over $50M by that time. His family is set financially for at least a couple generations. He doesn't need to keep abusing his body and spending time away from the kids unless someone makes it really worth his while. Whether he gets 4/$80, he might not pitch for much less than that, at least on an AAC basis. At that age it probably makes more sense for both sides to go a year at a time but higher AAV. I don't see his interest in a team friendly deal at this point 

Right, pitchers never hang on as long as they can even if it’s for a 1-15 contact when they’re 38.   Like most athletes I expect him to pitch for as long as he can and get as much as the market allows.   I very much doubt he walks away from the game in his early or mid 30’s because the market was below 4/80 or whatever hypothetical number you want to use.

[Just Regular]

Eflin is Burnes is Santander.    It was a grow for Elias to extend to 1.33 years.    They look good enough to command deals covering FA seasons overlapping with Adley/Gunnar FA seasons - those are the only 2 players I figure Elias to offer high FA salaries too in upcoming contract offers.

Appearances must be maintained but I think the Orioles bid for FA Burnes might be about as hot as their bid for FA Ohtani, take your pick of either time.

At a lower tier of player, I'm sure Fournie and the other economic analysts are poking at Mayo, Westburg, etc, trying to see if they'll sell options on most of the rest of their careers for some ~$40M guarantee.

[ChosenOne21]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When Eflin was a 29-year old free agent he got a 3/$40 mm deal with Tampa.  By the time he’s a free agent again, he’ll be three years older.  Now, he’s been healthier and better in 2023-24 than in 2021-22.   But still, I’m not sure he’ll get 4/$80 mm starting at age 32.   

Fair enough. Assuming he doesn't implode next year, I'll still take the over on 4/80. And at a minimum, again, assuming he's at least average next year, I believe what he gets will be closer to 4/80 than 3/45.

[Tony-OH]

Eflin has absolutely been the ace this team needed since he been acquired and on the mound. 

I don't think the Orioles need to start worrying about extending him until "maybe" this offseason, and even then, I think I'd see what he looks like next year before I'm thinking of offering him an extension. 

But, he clearly is one of the guys who when the team needs him, comes through. He gives professional outings almost every time out. 

[tntoriole]

You just wonder if Elias et al are actually going to extend anybody ever.. lol.