Trevor Rogers 2024

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It's hard to take Suarez out of the rotation when his results are about as good as GRod.   Kremer can't say that.

It’s not hard when you don’t overrate SSS.

[Explosivo]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It's hard to take Suarez out of the rotation when his results are about as good as GRod.   Kremer can't say that.

The joy of having extra starters is you rest up guys like Suarez and Kremer. Nothing wrong with that option if they need it.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not hard when you don’t overrate SSS.

20 starts is not SSS.

Edited September 5 by wildcard

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

12 months is the baseline. Could take longer, but doesn't have to. He could go 14 months and still come back in August. We should have a better idea around the trade deadline.

Either way, I don't see us spending dollars or prospects on two TOR types. 

I don't think the data on players coming back from TJ will support that 12 months is your baseline (average outcome).  This would suggest that some guys come back faster than that, and I haven't seen that happen. 

Shane Baz took almost two years.  Means took 15 months initially plus setbacks and another surgery.  How many other pitchers had TJ in 2023 and aren't back this year?  There are a number of them. 

Edited September 5 by ChuckS

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

20 starts is not SSS.

It is compared to his career and Kremer’s career.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It is compared to his career and Kremer’s career.

You can compare careers all you want but 20 starts are what is happening this year.   And 20 starts in not insignificant.

GM don't normally take starter with 3.54 ERA out of the rotation.  That's Suarez.   But a 4.50 ERA will put a starter on shaky ground if the team has anyone better to replace him.   That could be Kremer in ST next season.

Edited September 5 by wildcard

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Spakman said:

I don’t think anybody liked the trade when it happened and all of a sudden people wanna argue that they think it might be OK when it looks worse than ever.  My opinion has nothing to do with how he’s performed with the Orioles. He could be doing great and it’s still a bad trade on paper. 

I posted a link above to the poll that was conducted when the trade happened.   There were a significant number of people who did like the trade - 41% either liked it or loved it.   43% (including me) said “meh,” and 16% hated it.  

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

12 months is the baseline. Could take longer, but doesn't have to. He could go 14 months and still come back in August. We should have a better idea around the trade deadline.

Either way, I don't see us spending dollars or prospects on two TOR types. 

Think my point is we shouldn't count on him in any capacity in 2025. You certainly don't keep a rotation spot open at the start of the year and rely on guys like Irvin/Suarez/etc. 

You don't need to trade any prospects. This is where Rubenstein needs to walk the walk and Elias needs to prove that he can and will acquire free agent starters that aren't 1 year deals/lottery shots. 

[LookitsPuck]

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Think my point is we shouldn't count on him in any capacity in 2025. You certainly don't keep a rotation spot open at the start of the year and rely on guys like Irvin/Suarez/etc. 

You don't need to trade any prospects. This is where Rubenstein needs to walk the walk and Elias needs to prove that he can and will acquire free agent starters that aren't 1 year deals/lottery shots. 

We might see some 2-3 year deals. I have a feeling we are never going to see 5/$150M+ deals under Elias. At least, that is my assumption so that I am not disappointed.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I posted a link above to the poll that was conducted when the trade happened.   There were a significant number of people who did like the trade - 41% either liked it or loved it.   43% (including me) said “meh,” and 16% hated it.  

I think my main reason for not absolutely hating the trade at the time was the hope we would get a 4th starter out of it for the next two years.  Somebody who could eat inning and have an ERA somewhere around a 4 ERA.   Our pitching depth in the high minors isn't great.   Basically I was hoping we would get what we all wanted Cole Irvin to be.  

 

I still hope for that, but man, as I said earlier, after seeing him actually pitch, I'm not as hopeful.  

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I posted a link above to the poll that was conducted when the trade happened.   There were a significant number of people who did like the trade - 41% either liked it or loved it.   43% (including me) said “meh,” and 16% hated it.  

I hated it 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Think my point is we shouldn't count on him in any capacity in 2025. You certainly don't keep a rotation spot open at the start of the year and rely on guys like Irvin/Suarez/etc. 

You don't need to trade any prospects. This is where Rubenstein needs to walk the walk and Elias needs to prove that he can and will acquire free agent starters that aren't 1 year deals/lottery shots. 

Assuming GrayRod comes back healthy, that gives the O's Eflin and GrayRod at the top of the O's rotation.  Pick whichever one you want to be #1.  I think we can all agree the Burnes we have seen this year, especially the last month, is not getting $200=250 million from Elias/Rubenstein.  I would hope the O's are going to sign a #2/3 type starter.  There aren't even many of those available.  I think it's almost a given SF resigns Snell at $30 mill/yr.  Irvin/Suarez/Kremer/Povich/etc should compete for those 4/5 slots and are as good as any 2nd tier FA the O's would sign at a much cheaper price.  Suarez has been at worst the O's 3rd best starter before Eflin got here and I would think he's get's preferential treatment for one of those slots.  Not likely to have a chance at a 2nd free agent likely to put up anything close to the 3.5 ERA that Suarez has had this year.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

11 hours ago, Allan Bryant said:

Nice assessment and analysis on Rogers . I can’t answer your concerns about his velocity dropping . You mentioned injury related, I think it’s possible . I wonder if it’s mechanical issues as well . I don’t think Ruby & Elias should count on him as our starter for next season’s rotation either . I would view him as our second Cole Irvin. They both should start at Norfolk next season and used ‘break the glass in case of emergency’ starters .  I agree with you that next year’s rotation is below standards , meaning that at least two , ideally three or four new free agent starters and one or two free agent bullpen pitchers . They need to stock up and fortify our pitching depth . I rather have too many pitching options than just bare minimum depth .

If all Rogers is is a second Cole Irvin and depth piece for next year, this would officially be a wasteful trade. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Most on here seem to be saying Rogers shouldn’t be assumed to be rotation piece next year. You almost have to assume the Orioles are going to want to pencil him in. I know it’s very possible we can’t get him back to where he was, but if he’s not cracking the rotation in the spring, then he’s got no real future here.