16-20 over last 36 games

[now]

To me the most puzzling and aggravating part of it is the collapse of fundamental defense the past three weeks. Not just Gunnar's streak of what, 8 errors in a week, but almost everyone has missed balls (many judged as hits instead of errors) that normally we would see caught. Not to mention poor decisions on popups, cutoff throws, baserunning plays. Like hitting and pitching, apparently the quality (or lapse) of defense appears to be contagious. I don't know what the solution is, but the old Oriole Way and even Buck's teams were not like this in terms of defense.

[SteveA]

9 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

Really well articulated. I’m sure every fan watching these games is feeling the same.

Tony what sort of changes would you make? For the hitting getting rid of a player like Mountcastle is priority 1. His impatient approach I feel has made normally patient hitters like Adley be more homer happy.

I could also see us not resign Santander with his homer prone swing. 
 

that said there really just needs to be more balance to this lineup. Seeing hitters like Kwan and Ramirez really make you appreciate pure hitters.

You really believe that somehow being on the same team with Mountcastle changes Adley's approach at the plate?   That sounds compltely ridiculous to me.

Adley's in a horrible slump.   There could be any number of reasons.   Lack of focus.   Not adjusting well after pitchers make adjustment to him.   Poor coaching, or attempts by coaches to modify his approach that have not had the desired effect.   Some part of his body sore or hurt we don't know about.   Poor diet.   Fatigue from staying out too late.   Bad luck, falling into bad habits.   Etc., etc.   I think ANY of those are more likely than having one random teammate who doesn't have a good approach at the plate somehow infecting or affecting him.  Like an alcoholic who relapses because he hangs out with someone who drinks a lot?   That just seems absurd.

[now]

1 minute ago, bpilktree67 said:

Baseball is a funny game.  The Phillies looked like they were just gonna Cruz through the season and playoffs.  Now since July 11th they have the 2nd worst record in baseball behind only the White Sox.  They are also getting hammered again.  

True, Yankees too. Seems like there's room for a new thread, "Yankees Lose, Orioles Lose."

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

At least if we get pushed to an ALWC, Burnes, Grayson, Eflin, Coulombe, Cano and Seranthony can pitch all 27 innings.

I said in the game thread I don't think it is an accident Holliday or Mayo never got to meet Austin Hays, for example.

It is on brand for SIGBOT to assemble a bunch of talented pieces.    We're only at the beginning of getting to see how it is all going to fit together.

Some of the higher leverage work of Hyde's tenure managing players expectations through whatever tactics get developed is coming up.    Has Gunnar lost his leadoff job?    Kimbrel lost his closer job?    Will Eflin and Rogers be quicker studies learning people's names than Burnes?    Who's the boss?

@baltfan - good call on the Yankee Stadium series last summer.

I do think it is a little more unsettled now as Elias has taken some actions affecting some individual's ideals about what the track was going to look like.

Lot of conjecture around Austin Hays. I don’t think it’s fair. 
 

Nobody cares, but the “Sigbot” jokes were tired a year or so ago. This is Elias’ team. Plus, the bot jokes are all “this guy only goes by numbers, he doesn’t know people” blah blah. I take the year in dugouts component hook line and sinker. For whatever it’s worth.

[Uli2001]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

When the Orioles lose once again to the Guardians tonight, the team will now be 16-20 over their last 36 games. This is not a slump, this is team that not good in any facet of the game. 

What is their strength?

The hitting? They hit home runs, but when they don't, they don't win because they don't get on base consistently. Their hitting philosophy is terrible. Their two hitting strategy coaches need to find new work because they have failed in their attempt to get everyone to hit home runs vs take what the pitchers give them, have good PAs, an work pitchers.

The Fielding? This team has the defensive fundamentals of a local Little League team. Can't catch a pop up, can't perform a run down, and anything that seems like its hit 100 MPH+ on the infield can't be handled.

The pitching? Outside of Burnes, starters can't put batters away and the the bullpen is made up of DFA guys and pitchers the Phillies didn't want basically.

The Indians are a good team, but they have dominated this Orioles team. Thankfully, Elias made moves that may pay off more in 2025 because maybe he even realizes this team is going no where IF they make the playoffs. 

Sure, teams can get hot at the right time, and maybe some of these guys will, but they clearly did not get a boost from the trade deadline and look dead vs a good team. 

 

 

You mean they are 16-21 over their last 37 (since the much hyped 17-5 win at Yankee Stadium). They immediately went on a 5-game losing streak after that, and since then they have been 16-16 (with a few lucky wins in there).

This is what this team is right now, a (barely) .500 team. If they can keep playing .500 ball through the end of the season, that's 91 wins and a WC spot. The issue is, can they really sustain even .500? It's not clear that they can do it.

This is 2013 all over again, it's the regression year. The good news is that if this is the case, then 2025 will be 2014 again.

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

You mean they are 16-21 over their last 37 (since the much hyped 17-5 win at Yankee Stadium). They immediately went on a 5-game losing streak after that, and since then they have been 16-16 (with a few lucky wins in there).

This is what this team is right now, a (barely) .500 team. If they can keep playing .500 ball through the end of the season, that's 91 wins and a WC spot. The issue is, can they really sustain even .500? It's not clear that they can do it.

This is 2013 all over again, it's the regression year. The good news is that if this is the case, then 2025 will be 2014 again.

Why is this poor stretch of games more indicative of our talent than the good stretch earlier?

You think that Gunnar has lost the ability to hit HRs forever?   You think that Adley really is a .160 hitter?

Why are we defined by our worst stretch (which is just 5 games under .500 for 37 games)?   Texas had a 36-44 stretch last year, basically a stretch like ours but twice as long.   But it didn't define them as a team.  

We aren't as good as we appeared to be when we played .650 ball for 74 games.   And we aren't as bad as we appear to be when we have played .450 ball for half that length of time.   

I don't know why every is assuming we played great for 74 games, and poorly for 37, and that somehow that proves the 37 game stretch is what we are.   Yet there seem to be an awful lot of people around here assuming it.

 

[Explosivo]

8 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

You mean they are 16-21 over their last 37 (since the much hyped 17-5 win at Yankee Stadium). They immediately went on a 5-game losing streak after that, and since then they have been 16-16 (with a few lucky wins in there).

This is what this team is right now, a (barely) .500 team. If they can keep playing .500 ball through the end of the season, that's 91 wins and a WC spot. The issue is, can they really sustain even .500? It's not clear that they can do it.

This is 2013 all over again, it's the regression year. The good news is that if this is the case, then 2025 will be 2014 again.

Yall are crazy. I swear. The guardians are a bad matchup. We have 25% new faces. Stuff will shift, we will be fine. This is a valley. No doubt, but getting hot at the end of the year is still in the cards.

[emmett16]

I think they need to call a team meeting. 

[Just Regular]

50 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Lot of conjecture around Austin Hays. I don’t think it’s fair. 
Nobody cares, but the “Sigbot” jokes were tired a year or so ago. This is Elias’ team. Plus, the bot jokes are all “this guy only goes by numbers, he doesn’t know people” blah blah. I take the year in dugouts component hook line and sinker. For whatever it’s worth.

Nothing intended about Hays up to no good - meant that more like if Elias knew mid-July Hays was asking out (and Elias had foreknowledge he'd likely do it) as the biggest jolt this roster core has experienced, he might have preferred to steer the youngest rookies away from that.

Agree Sig Mejdal very well understands the limits of the decision aids - I use SIGBOT pretty generically about the analytical inputs the org uses.

The risk that is more than I am used to seeing Elias take, and that might be a little tone deaf or at least a tough sell for Hyde, is only importing relievers who set up for Kimbrel previously.     I don't begrudge any of Kimbrel or Hays or Urias being proud competitors who feel like they are the best choices for their roles - they wouldn't be where they are without a lot of that make up.

[Baseball fandom]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

When the Orioles lose once again to the Guardians tonight, the team will now be 16-20 over their last 36 games. This is not a slump, this is team that not good in any facet of the game. 

What is their strength?

The hitting? They hit home runs, but when they don't, they don't win because they don't get on base consistently. Their hitting philosophy is terrible. Their two hitting strategy coaches need to find new work because they have failed in their attempt to get everyone to hit home runs vs take what the pitchers give them, have good PAs, an work pitchers.

The Fielding? This team has the defensive fundamentals of a local Little League team. Can't catch a pop up, can't perform a run down, and anything that seems like its hit 100 MPH+ on the infield can't be handled.

The pitching? Outside of Burnes, starters can't put batters away and the the bullpen is made up of DFA guys and pitchers the Phillies didn't want basically.

The Indians are a good team, but they have dominated this Orioles team. Thankfully, Elias made moves that may pay off more in 2025 because maybe he even realizes this team is going no where IF they make the playoffs. 

Sure, teams can get hot at the right time, and maybe some of these guys will, but they clearly did not get a boost from the trade deadline and look dead vs a good team. 

 

 

I agree Tony. Everything you wrote is spot on.  This team looked like a lock for the playoffs 5 weeks ago now if feels more like 50/50. If they get in can't imagine they get very far

Edited August 3 by Baseball fandom

[e16bball]

As it pertains to the offense, there continues to be this notion that all they do is hit HRs and don’t get on base — and that this is a big part of the skid they’re currently on.

But during the 36-game span we’re talking about, they’re actually 7th in all of baseball in OBP (at .328 as a team). They’ve actually gotten significantly better in this area during the rough patch (previously 13th with a .314 OBP). That isn’t the reason the team is going poorly.

Two things I haven’t seen mentioned:

1. Baserunning. Prior to June 21, they were 6th in the league in baserunning runs, totaling 4.4 runs above average per FG. Since that day, they’re dead last in all of baseball, at a woeful -3.2 runs over the last 37 games. They’ve left a lot of runs out there with caught stealings and bad sends in particular.

2. RISP hitting. Since the slide started, they’re hitting .223 with RISP, which places them 25th in the league. The teams worse than them (TBR, SEA, CHW, ATL, COL) are all among the lowest-scoring offenses over this span. 
 

I don’t know what to do about the baserunning. It’s been pretty bad…I hope it gets better. I’m not very optimistic that it will, with Westburg/Mateo/Hays out and Holliday/Mayo/Jimenez in.

As for the clutch hitting, I actually consider that a positive thing, because I think it’s mostly a luck/timing/“pressing” thing. These guys were good at hitting with RISP before June 21 (7th in MLB), they were good at it all of last year (1st in MLB), and they’ll likely be good at it again soon. Because they’re good hitters. It’s actually pretty remarkable that they’re still 9th in the league in runs during this brutal stretch despite being so bad with RISP.

Edited August 3 by e16bball

[Yossarian]

Watching Cleveland stringing together hits  stealing bases, taking extra bases, and generally putting pressure on the defense reminded me of what I enjoyed so much about watching the Os play in the first half of the season.  Yes, the Os hit a lot of home runs,  but they were aggressive on the basepaths and stole bases.   They were an exciting team to watch.

 

Now it seems like we don't even get on base and when we do,  we don't get those hits that allow runners to advance and put pressure on the defense.   We are an incredibly boring offensive team right now.   A complete 180 from the early season. 

I won't even discuss the defense right now.   We are giving up two runs on sacrifice flies.  Talk about productive outs.

[Frobby]

I have no idea if the team will right the ship or not, but as @SteveApointed out, you don’t have to go way back in history to find examples of teams that had longer periods of worse play than the Orioles are going through now, and rebounded to win the World Series.  In that 36-44 stretch he mentioned, the 3023 Rangers also had one stretch of 10-30 that lasted well into September.

So, should we be very worried about how the team has looked over the last month and a half?  Yes.  But baseball is weird, and it’s  to judge a team when they’re playing their worst.   They have the talent to play better.   We’ll see if they do or not.  
 

Edited August 3 by Frobby

[Baltimorecuse]

The pitching fell apart.  That's the story.  

[interloper]

The infield left to right is 22, 23, 20, and Mountcastle. 

It is what it is. This is a young team that is still a little early and a little green. There's no great veteran locking down the infield like a JJ Hardy or something. 

Our rotation is injured and our bullpen has talent but is dicey. 

Our catcher and CF are having career worst years.

Sometimes it's just a tough year. We'll see how it goes.