Returning Starting Pitchers.

[Frobby]

I’d like to offer Burnes a front-loaded deal with an opt-out in the later, cheaper years.  Incentivize him to stay for 3-4 years and then leave when he’s hitting his mid-30’s.

[jamalshw]

I think its clear that Burnes needs to be resigned or that we need a Burnes replacement at the top, but with the deals made and then the return of guys, I think the rest of the rotation is at least in an okay spot. 

Grayson has been a bit up and down, but he's a solid guy. Eflin for 2025 and Bradish for 2026 gives you another solid 2-3 (Bradish maybe more, but I'll give him a healthy year before I'm expecting too much). Kremer, Rogers, Povich, McDermott, Wells, etc. should be able to fill in the 4-5 holes. 

What Elias has managed to do at this deadline is put himself in a favorable position to add the needed SP in the offseason without being desperate for quantity. 

To me, if Burnes is happy here, the easiest option is resigning him. I'll be for more $ and years than we've historically gone with a SP, but it would be the best option. If that doesn't work, however, there are other options with $$ or prospects to get the needed piece. 

[Gunnar]

Just do whatever it takes to sign Burnes, and a mid rotation guy in the off season. Save trade pieces for next year's deadline. We need to capitalize on our window, it's not going to be open forever.

[LookitsPuck]

This offseason is going to be more about Rubenstein and less about Elias, to be honest. Rubenstein is going to have to prove he's willing to both spend money *and* give out multi-year deals. 

There are going to be the big boys (age at time entering free agency): Corbin Burnes (30), Zack Wheeler (35), Max Fried (31), Blake Snell (32, he'll most assuredly opt out after this season). Then there are some question marks with potential for 1st tier stuff, but have upside in guys like Walker Buehler (30), Shane Bieber (30)....and old man Max Scherzer (40).

Of course, there the 2nd/3rd tier guys in Charlie Morton, Nick Pivetta, Jack Flaherty, Alex Cobb, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander (his option won't vest due to not hitting IP limit), Jordan Montgomery, etc.

The O's simply can't go into next season with a rotation of Eflin, Grayson, Kremer, Rogers, McDermott/Povich. 

I'd really love to see Rubenstein pony up and make a statement for Corbin Burnes and one other arm. I don't think you can rely on Rogers for next season. 

 

[glenn__davis]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

This offseason is going to be more about Rubenstein and less about Elias, to be honest. Rubenstein is going to have to prove he's willing to both spend money *and* give out multi-year deals. 

I'm not really certain that Elias wants to give out big contracts.  I would not be at all surprised if Rubenstein actually DOES want to spend money but Elias refrains from doing so.  

I think Elias is a big believer in being young, cost-controlled, and flexible.

[LookitsPuck]

33 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I'm not really certain that Elias wants to give out big contracts.  I would not be at all surprised if Rubenstein actually DOES want to spend money but Elias refrains from doing so.  

I think Elias is a big believer in being young, cost-controlled, and flexible.

I’m sure Elias believes that. But it’s indefensible to go into next year without Burnes and Bradish with a rotation of Eflin, Grayson, Kremer, Rogers, Povich/McDermott. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think most will agree they need to add at least one playoff-caliber SP on the level of Grayson/Eflin to replace Burnes, and preferably another one on top of that.

The interesting thing is if they add two, they have a lot of back-end options with Kremer, Rogers, McDermott, Povich and even Brandon Young. All have options, even Kremer and Rogers. Are they going to trade from this group or just stash a lot of depth in AAA?

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

58 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

This offseason is going to be more about Rubenstein and less about Elias, to be honest. Rubenstein is going to have to prove he's willing to both spend money *and* give out multi-year deals. 

There are going to be the big boys (age at time entering free agency): Corbin Burnes (30), Zack Wheeler (35), Max Fried (31), Blake Snell (32, he'll most assuredly opt out after this season). Then there are some question marks with potential for 1st tier stuff, but have upside in guys like Walker Buehler (30), Shane Bieber (30)....and old man Max Scherzer (40).

Of course, there the 2nd/3rd tier guys in Charlie Morton, Nick Pivetta, Jack Flaherty, Alex Cobb, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander (his option won't vest due to not hitting IP limit), Jordan Montgomery, etc.

The O's simply can't go into next season with a rotation of Eflin, Grayson, Kremer, Rogers, McDermott/Povich. 

I'd really love to see Rubenstein pony up and make a statement for Corbin Burnes and one other arm. I don't think you can rely on Rogers for next season. 

 

Agreed, they’re going to have to spend. And even if they want to go the trade route, their big trade chip is Kjerstad. They can’t trade Kjerstad unless they’re re-signing Santander or adding a different free agent OF, so they’re likely going to need to pay free agent prices for somebody one way or another.

Wheeler signed an extension, btw. And Fried’s case is going to be very interesting with the recent injuries, even if he finishes the season healthy. Same for Flaherty with the back issues that caused the Yankees to back out of the deadline deal.

Burnes and Snell are shaping up to be the two big names. 

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

Agreed, they’re going to have to spend. And even if they want to go the trade route, their big trade chip is Kjerstad. They can’t trade Kjerstad unless they’re re-signing Santander or adding a different free agent OF, so they’re likely going to need to pay free agent prices for somebody one way or another.

Wheeler signed an extension, btw. And Fried’s case is going to be very interesting with the recent injuries, even if he finishes the season healthy. Same for Flaherty with the back issues that caused the Yankees to back out of the deadline deal.

Burnes and Snell are shaping up to be the two big names. 

Ah, thank you. I missed that about Wheeler. Thanks for the correction.

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

This offseason is going to be more about Rubenstein and less about Elias, to be honest. Rubenstein is going to have to prove he's willing to both spend money *and* give out multi-year deals. 

There are going to be the big boys (age at time entering free agency): Corbin Burnes (30), Zack Wheeler (35), Max Fried (31), Blake Snell (32, he'll most assuredly opt out after this season). Then there are some question marks with potential for 1st tier stuff, but have upside in guys like Walker Buehler (30), Shane Bieber (30)....and old man Max Scherzer (40).

Of course, there the 2nd/3rd tier guys in Charlie Morton, Nick Pivetta, Jack Flaherty, Alex Cobb, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander (his option won't vest due to not hitting IP limit), Jordan Montgomery, etc.

The O's simply can't go into next season with a rotation of Eflin, Grayson, Kremer, Rogers, McDermott/Povich. 

I'd really love to see Rubenstein pony up and make a statement for Corbin Burnes and one other arm. I don't think you can rely on Rogers for next season. 

 

Note Wheeler signed an extension with the Phillies.

While preferring Burnes, there does seem to be sufficient inventory either in FA or trade market such that O’s can add high quality starter this offseason.  And then hopefully ace return of Bradish by end of 2025.

[NedFromYork]

Updated with Bradish, and Suarez as deep depth.

2025- Rodriguez, Efflin, Kremer, Rogers, Suarez, Irvin, Povich, McDermott

2026- Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer, Means, Wells, Rogers, Suarez, Irvin, Povich, McDermott

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[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

This offseason is going to be more about Rubenstein and less about Elias, to be honest. Rubenstein is going to have to prove he's willing to both spend money *and* give out multi-year deals. 

There are going to be the big boys (age at time entering free agency): Corbin Burnes (30), Zack Wheeler (35), Max Fried (31), Blake Snell (32, he'll most assuredly opt out after this season). Then there are some question marks with potential for 1st tier stuff, but have upside in guys like Walker Buehler (30), Shane Bieber (30)....and old man Max Scherzer (40).

Of course, there the 2nd/3rd tier guys in Charlie Morton, Nick Pivetta, Jack Flaherty, Alex Cobb, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander (his option won't vest due to not hitting IP limit), Jordan Montgomery, etc.

The O's simply can't go into next season with a rotation of Eflin, Grayson, Kremer, Rogers, McDermott/Povich. 

I'd really love to see Rubenstein pony up and make a statement for Corbin Burnes and one other arm. I don't think you can rely on Rogers for next season. 

 

I really appreciate this post! I agree with mostly all of it except for the Scherzer part. IMO Max Scherzer is in no way shape or form a #1 anymore. He doesn't have the durability nor the stuff to be considered such.

Now back to the Rubenstein part - The direction of the franchise is largely going to take shape based upon the direction that Rubenstein charts for it as a whole. Sure Elias will maintain the last say over all baseball ops. But there are things at play much larger than who he trades, promotes or drafts. Those things are impacted by the direction that Rubenstien provides and the support that he offers to Elias.

Many of us fans have been conditioned to the small/large market scaling/dichotomy. However, as is exemplified by San Diego those things can be redefined based on the decisions/investment of ownership.

Is Rubenstein comfortable running shorter term profit losses with the understanding that he is building value for longer term gain by making substantial investments in the team (i.e. San Diego)? How are the Orioles (especially given the market challenge with a team 40 miles away) going to grow their market share? How are they going to compel more people to come and/or view their games? What will the $600 million dollar renovations do to attracting more people? What is the long term plan for the media, broadcasting, streaming etc situation?

I respect that a lot of fans don't want or like to confront the business realities of the sport. But these are the sort of issues that DAvid Rubenstein needs to address in order to sustain big time contracts like Corbin Burnes.

[Roll Tide]

15 hours ago, NedFromYork said:

Assuming Burnes goes FA, is the below what we have returning and control of over the next two years out of folks that have made starts this year?  We'll need some trades or FAs for sure.

2025- Rodriguez, Efflin, Kremer, Rogers, Irvin, Povich, McDermott

2026- Rodriguez, Kremer, Means, Wells, Rogers, Irvin, Povich, McDermott

Bradish ? 

[RVAOsFan]

Signing Burnes this offseason to a 5-6 year deal needs to happen and should happen IMO.  He is the one piece missing as far as long term control from the team competing year in year out for the next 4 or 5 seasons.  Elias can wake up the morning the FA period starts, sign Burnes to a big Contract, go have a big press conference and as far as I am concerned vacation until March unless one of the current young guys want to talk extension.