One Run Here And One Run There Isn't Going To Cut It.

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

Then explain the difference in wins and losses. Was our pitching THAT much better than it is now. There's something the stats aren't telling because this offense does not like remotely as good as it did before the ASG. 

I think the short answer is that yes, the pitching was that much better.

Pre ASG 3.71 ERA (6th in MLB), post ASG 4.75 ERA (25th in MLB). That difference will make a good team into an average one, even if the offense is continuing to do well. 

[Three Run Homer]

50 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

What 

Your irony detector needs new batteries.

[Baseball fandom]

The Orioles just aren't a very good team. This has been going on long enough. I certainly lost my hope of any sustained long playoff run this year if they make it.  

[Baseball fandom]

2 hours ago, OriolesUpAndDowns said:

They have a standard deviation of 2.67 runs a game which is good for 10th in MLB.  Not a big difference.  

But that being said, I feel the same way watching games.  It seems they are either hot or cold.  

Exactly  I've been saying this too. Numbers can be so misleading. Like this offense. 

[accinfo]

29 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

You conveniently edited out the rest of the quote. Gunnar is getting back to form, but he had an extended slump. But Adley is an issue anyway you slice it. 

I just kept the highlights.  Frobby keeps proving the offense is not overall a problem.  Adley had a very bad July.  It happens.  Their pitching has been most of the problem why they have been a 500 team for an extended period of time.  Again 4 starters have missed significant time.  They have had one consistent starter the whole year.  Their second best starter was acquired at the deadline and has made just 4 starts.  The biggest suggestion here is always to load up the offense with more rookies like Mayo and Kjersted and that will solve all their problems.  They are hanging on because injuries have taken their collective toll.  Hopefully we will get key pieces back at the end of September and we will see what happens.  The Yankees have the two top MVP candidates and less injuries than the Orioles yet they are 1/2 game better.  

[maybenxtyr]

50 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

Then explain the difference in wins and losses. Was our pitching THAT much better than it is now. There's something the stats aren't telling because this offense does not like remotely as good as it did before the ASG. 

The pitching I believe was better prior to the ASB. 

 

It really all comes down to the pitching.  Injuries and being ineffective have caught up to them this season. 

[Roy Firestone]

We needed a balk tonight to score from third with 1 out.

We still suck at situational hitting.

Cant get the ball in the air. Strike out in key situations.

And Urias hitting the bomb gave us life. But of course, as is often the case, our closer coughed it up under pressure. This is not a team, as currently constructed that is going far in the playoffs. Too many holes, too many weaknesses.

[Safelykept]

4 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

We needed a balk tonight to score from third with 1 out.

We still suck at situational hitting.

Cant get the ball in the air. Strike out in key situations.

And Urias hitting the bomb gave us life. But of course, as is often the case, our closer coughed it up under pressure. This is not a team, as currently constructed that is going far in the playoffs. Too many holes, too many weaknesses.

Not to mention 2 lockdown performances by Selby and Akin (3 and a third no hits, 8 SO}, But wasted. Urias and Mounty 4 for 7 all 3 runs scored. The rest of line up 2 for 25 and another winnable game goes in the loss column. They have to get better.

[TopGunnar]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

What are you guys talking about?  On the year, the O’s have scored 5.04 runs/game, 3rd in MLB.  Since the all star break, 5.30 runs per game.  In August, 4.71 runs/game. News flash: to they’re not going to score 5+ runs all the time.  

Do you watch the games?

[TopGunnar]

6 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

We needed a balk tonight to score from third with 1 out.

We still suck at situational hitting.

Cant get the ball in the air. Strike out in key situations.

And Urias hitting the bomb gave us life. But of course, as is often the case, our closer coughed it up under pressure. This is not a team, as currently constructed that is going far in the playoffs. Too many holes, too many weaknesses.

IF they make the playoffs

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Before the ASG the O's scored less than three runs 25 times in 96 games (26%). Since the ASG the O's have scored less than three runs 4 times in 30 games (13%). 

These rates change some if you set the run threshold to <4 or the date to Jul 1 instead of the ASG, but the idea that the offense is suddenly less consistent or only scoring their runs in big blowout games just holds no water. 

Oh, you and your pesky facts. I have eyes, and ears, and a nose, and feelings, and they outweigh facts.  

[webbrick2010]

7 hours ago, accinfo said:

I just kept the highlights.  Frobby keeps proving the offense is not overall a problem.  Adley had a very bad July.  It happens.  Their pitching has been most of the problem why they have been a 500 team for an extended period of time.  Again 4 starters have missed significant time.  They have had one consistent starter the whole year.  Their second best starter was acquired at the deadline and has made just 4 starts.  The biggest suggestion here is always to load up the offense with more rookies like Mayo and Kjersted and that will solve all their problems.  They are hanging on because injuries have taken their collective toll.  Hopefully we will get key pieces back at the end of September and we will see what happens.  The Yankees have the two top MVP candidates and less injuries than the Orioles yet they are 1/2 game better.  

Bobby Witt Jr says hello

[milbest77]

I will scream this from the mountain tops. Elias was not brought here to win championships. He was brought to slash payroll. Hired by Angelos. Remember all the “moving to Nashville” talk? IMO, Elias is not the guy to get this team to the next level. He’s not a Dombrowski type that will go all-in for a WS. I have a feeling the new owners will bring in their own guys sooner than later, which may or may not be a good thing. 
 

Ok, commence the stone-throwing!

[Frobby]

The average major league team scores 6.18 runs per game when it wins, 2.65 when it loses.  And loses half the time.

The Orioles have scored 6.49 runs per game when they win, 3.00 when they lose. And have lost only 42% of the time.

So, the Orioles score more runs than the average team when they win.  They score more than the average team when they lose.  And they win more often than the average team.  

But yeah, it’s the offense that’s the problem.  

Since the all star break, the O’s have averaged 7.07 runs/game when they win, 3.53 when they lose.  Both above average.

In August, the O’s have averaged 5.85 runs/game when they win, 3.67 when they lose   The first is a bit below average, the second is significantly above average.

Bottom line, this is a very good offensive team, whether looking at the whole season, post-All Star Break, or in August.  It is a complete myth that, despite scoring more runs than most teams, they somehow do it by piling on in a few games, compared to other teams.  Their run distribution is totally normal for a team averaging 5 runs per game.   

So when someone asks me a ridiculous question like “do you watch the games:”

Yes, I do.   But I don’t stop there.  I look at the numbers.  I look at what other teams do.  And I don’t jump to wrong conclusions just because of a few games where the offense didn’t click.  

Edited August 20 by Frobby

[LookitsPuck]

It’s the pitching. The pitching stinks. When Burnes, Eflin, and Suarez are on they can win. When they’re not, they’ll lose more than they win. That’s the determiner. Rogers and Kremer are inconsistent and/or bad. The bullpen well…stinks.

Edited August 20 by LookitsPuck