The Rays Series, 9/6-9/8

[Just Regular]

The Rays arrive to start a 10-game roadtrip off a 2-2 split with Minnesota, as Pablo Lopez beat Taj Bradley in the finale, costing them a chance to tie the Red Sox for 3rd place.   Bradley threw a good game, so the bullpen is in good order, though they are in closer by committee role with Fairbanks on the IL.

AL Active Roster K-bb standing at 40 innings as SP, a batch of 68 this morning.

(51) Kremer v. (58) Baz

(20) Eflin v. (24) Pepiot

(29) Burnes v. (34) Littell

Baz is fundamentally Grayson Rodriguez on draft pedigree, now about 2 years past his TJ procedure.    He still hasn't put it all back together, and he's an important player for how good TBR can be the next couple years, same as Grayson with us.

Some of Pepiot's changeup metrics are excellent, a challenge for Cowser as he tries to outplay Austin Wells and the Rookie of the Year field with 3.5 weeks to go.

Burnes is working on not letting his overall track record get goofed up further, though I'm sure his agent is smiling at stuff like it randomly taking Blake Snell 42 pitches to complete an inning, and oops there's a 1-inning start for your club's bullpen.    His guy never does that.

It was cool seeing Junior Caminero tear up at getting to take the field with his childhood idol Manny Machado.    Also makes me feel old.    ESPN Kiley wrote the other day he momentarily gives TBR the "#1 farm system" by his rankings, with Holliday graduated.    Caminero is at 110 AB's and should graduate himself next week - congrats Rays on the momentary distinction.

Yandy and Caminero, 12 years apart in Age, are the two hottest bats.    It is favorable for us Yandy isn't a Yankee or Astro right now.

Watching Elias' Orioles for clues any ways they are different than the Rays he lavishly praised coming into the AL East, one appears to be the club's willingness to pay Zach Eflin 1/18 on a 1-year term.   Next season we'll see how strongly Shane McClanahan returns to boost his expected Arb earnings and oncoming trade out of Tampa date.    Jackson Baumeister had another big game last night.

[Frobby]

I just started a similar thread, which I’ve deleted when I saw this one.  Here’s my post from that thread, perhaps partially redundant of @Just Regular’s OP.

Here comes our last series with the Rays, who the O’s have dominated 8-2 so far this season, outscoring them 52-25 in the ten games.  The Rays enter the series at 69-70 and have hovered around .500 practically all year. The apparent pitching matchups are:

Dean Kremer (6-9, 4.51 ERA) vs. Shane Baz (2-2, 3.49).  Kremer, who avoided an IL stint after being lit on the forearm with a line drive in his last start, hasn’t faced the Rays this year; in 6 career starts against them, he’s 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA.   Baz, who returned from TJ surgery about two months ago, has only faced the Orioles once, throwing 6 shutout innings against them in 2022.   

Zach Eflin (10-7, 3.60 overall; 5-0, 1.95 as an Oriole) vs. Ryan Pepiot (7-6, 3.76).  Eflin, the former Ray, shut out his former teammates for 7 innings on August 9.   Pepiot lost to the O’s on June 10, allowing 4 ER in 6 IP.  He has a 2.40 ERA over his last 8 starts.

Corbin Burnes (13-7, 3.19) vs. Zack Littell (5-9, 4.04).  Burnes has two quality starts vs. Tampa this year, allowing 2 unearned runs in 7 IP on June 10 and 3 ER in 6 IP on August 10, the only quality start he’s had since July.  Littell has seen the Oriole 3 times this year, allowing 3 ER in 6 IP on both June 2 and June 9, and 3 runs (1 ER) in 5 IP on August 9.   

The Rays’ bullpen ranks 8th in ERA at 3.79, while the Orioles rank 17th at 3.98.  Since the all star break, however, the Rays’ bullpen tops MLB at 2.73, while the O’s are 17th at 4.32.   So, advantage Rays in the late innings.   

Offensively, the O’s rank 3rd in MLB at 5.01 runs per game and 1st in OPS+ at 118.   The Rays are 28th in R/G at 3.90 and 24th in OPS+ at 93.  Since the break, the Birds are at 5.17 R/G (7th) and .753 OPS (8th), while the Rays score 3.86 R/G (28th) and have a .660 OPS (28th).   

The Rays can certainly pitch, and are throwing three credible starters at us this weekend.  Our offense has been kind of hit and miss lately, so it will be incumbent on our starters to dominate the Rays, as they’ve been able to do so far this season.  I see this as potentially a low-scoring series, and hopefully the O’s bats will do enough for the Birds to come out on top.


 

Edited September 6 by Frobby

[Moose Milligan]

As with any series, take 2/3.  

Biggest thing for me in this series is to see if Burnes can get back on track.  

At this moment, I don't trust Kremer and I don't trust Burnes.  Changeup artist Pepiot will probably give our lineup fits.

I know we're 8-2 against them this year, but throw the record books out.  This series will be harder than most people assume.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I just started a similar thread, which I’ve deleted when I saw this one.  Here’s my post from that thread, perhaps partially redundant of @Just Regular’s OP.

Here comes our last series with the Rays, who the O’s have dominated 8-2 so far this season, outscoring them 52-25 in the ten games.  The Rays enter the series at 69-70 and have hovered around .500 practically all year. The apparent pitching matchups are:

Dean Kremer (6-9, 4.51 ERA) vs. Shane Baz (2-2, 3.49).  Kremer, who avoided an IL stint after being lit on the forearm with a line drive in his last start, hasn’t faced the Rays this year; in 6 career starts against them, he’s 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA.   Baz, who returned from TJ surgery about two months ago, has only faced the Orioles once, throwing 6 shutout innings against them in 2022.   

Zach Eflin (10-7, 3.60 overall; 5-0, 1.95 as an Oriole) vs. Ryan Pepiot (7-6, 3.76).  Eflin, the former Ray, shut out his former teammates for 7 innings on August 9.   Pepiot lost to the O’s on June 10, allowing 4 ER in 6 IP.  He has a 2.40 ERA over his last 8 starts.

Corbin Burnes (13-7, 3.19) vs. Zack Littell (5-9, 4.04).  Burnes has two quality starts vs. Tampa this year, allowing 2 unearned runs in 7 IP on June 10 and 3 ER in 6 IP on August 10, the only quality start he’s had since July.  Littell has seen the Oriole 3 times this year, allowing 3 ER in 6 IP on both June 2 and June 9, and 3 runs (1 ER) in 5 IP on August 9.   

The Rays’ bullpen ranks 8th in ERA at 3.79, while the Orioles rank 17th at 3.98.  Since the all star break, however, the Rays’ bullpen tops MLB at 2.73, while the O’s are 17th at 4.32.   So, advantage Rays in the late innings.   

Offensively, the O’s rank 3rd in MLB at 5.01 runs per game and 1st in OPS+ at 118.   The Rays are 28th in R/G at 3.90 and 24th in OPS+ at 93.  Since the break, the Birds are at 5.17 R/G (7th) and .753 OPS (8th), while the Rays score 3.86 R/G (28th) and have a .660 OPS (28th).   

The Rays can certainly pitch, and are throwing three credible starters at us this weekend.  Our offense has been kind of hit and miss lately, so it will be incumbent on our starters to dominate the Rays, as they’ve been able to do so far this season.  I see this as potentially a low-scoring series, and hopefully the O’s bats will do enough for the Birds to come out on top.


 

Imagine if the Rays were 8-2 against us instead of 2-8. Maybe they wouldn’t have sold at the deadline and their consecutive playoff streak wouldn’t be in jeopardy. 

They dominated us for years when we were down. Paybacks are pretty nice. 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

As with any series, take 2/3.  

Biggest thing for me in this series is to see if Burnes can get back on track.  

At this moment, I don't trust Kremer and I don't trust Burnes.  Changeup artist Pepiot will probably give our lineup fits.

I know we're 8-2 against them this year, but throw the record books out.  This series will be harder than most people assume.

I absolutely disregard the 8-2 record. They are capable of shutting down our offense over a 3-game stretch.  I’m not sure they’re capable of scoring a lot of runs against us, however.  I expect at least couple of low-scoring games.  

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I absolutely disregard the 8-2 record. They are capable of shutting down our offense over a 3-game stretch.  I’m not sure they’re capable of scoring a lot of runs against us, however.  I expect at least couple of low-scoring games.  

A little league team is capable of shutting down our offense over a 3 game stretch if they throw soft (they will!) and are lefties.

[clapdiddy]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I absolutely disregard the 8-2 record. Any team is capable of shutting down our offense over a 3-game stretch.  I’m not sure they’re capable of scoring a lot of runs against us, however.  I expect at least couple of low-scoring games.  

Fixed that for ya...

[Jim'sKid26]

3 games at home against the Rays.

It would seem rather obvious that 2 wins is a must. 

Does Kremer go any longer than 5 IP? What's the impact on the Bullpen if he can't go 4, or 3? It's a bit of a risk throwing him out there after that injury. The last thing the bullpen needs is to start the series with Tampa having to cover 5-6 innings.

It's a big start for Burnes. He needs to figure it out and start to get momentum moving toward the playoffs. Tampa is not a powerful offense but Diaz and Caminero can hurt you. 

I hope Eflin can keep it going. Pepiot is a tough opponent and the type of pitcher that gives this team fits. 

I agree with @Frobby that this will be a low scoring series. I worry that if Kremer can't eat some innings the bullpen will be an even bigger liability than it has been recently. 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I  I see this as potentially a low-scoring series, and hopefully the O’s bats will do enough for the Birds to come out on top.
 

It is exactly as I have foreseen….