2023 vs 2024 Player WAR & 2025 Opportunities

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The real improvement of this team will come from within. 
 

The 3-5 players they bring in from outside the org will supplement the roster…maybe put it over the top but the real improvement will come from those already in the org.

I think this is very much open to question.  Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad still have a long ways to go to even approach their expected ceiling; how likely is that to happen early enough to make a difference in 2025?   I don't know either, but it's enough of a risk to take seriously.  Basallo is a decision that can be made in 2026 absent injuries, but Rutchman's decline is a mystery and the absence of 4+ WAR 2025 from him will be sorely missed.  No one believes that the young core isn't going to play a huge role over the next several years, but where is the argument that a significant part of 2025 should still be devoted to player development at the ML level?

The last two seasons have left no doubt that the current O's team is worth investing in and we have a new owner with abundant resources and a stated desire to bring the WS back to Baltimore.  Maybe the time is now to start shifting the narrative from rebuilding first to competing first.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, 24fps said:

I think this is very much open to question.  Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad still have a long ways to go to even approach their expected ceiling; how likely is that to happen early enough to make a difference in 2025?   I don't know either, but it's enough of a risk to take seriously.  Basallo is a decision that can be made in 2026 absent injuries, but Rutchman's decline is a mystery and the absence of 4+ WAR 2025 from him will be sorely missed.  No one believes that the young core isn't going to play a huge role over the next several years, but where is the argument that a significant part of 2025 should still be devoted to player development at the ML level?

The last two seasons have left no doubt that the current O's team is worth investing in and we have a new owner with abundant resources and a stated desire to bring the WS back to Baltimore.  Maybe the time is now to start shifting the narrative from rebuilding first to competing first.

 

No, there is nothing to question there. 100% the improvement has to come from within.  If it doesn’t, nothing they bring in will matter next year. 
 

This organization is going to win based off of how they draft and develop players. If that fails, so will the team.

[24fps]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, there is nothing to question there. 100% the improvement has to come from within.  If it doesn’t, nothing they bring in will matter next year. 
 

This organization is going to win based off of how they draft and develop players. If that fails, so will the team.

When?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, 24fps said:

When?

When what?

[24fps]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

When what?

The when is really two questions.  One is when do the O's stop being handicapped by the risk-averse mindset that's governed their behavior since 2018, and the second is when does a 74 year-old billionaire tire of being told he has to wait a little longer because Jackson Holliday needs to further refine his new toe-tap?  Oh, and we also need to nail down a position for Coby Mayo, and so on.  No question?  I think the questions are numerous and many of them pretty important, and because they're so important, I think we'll start seeing a change in approach beginning this offseason.  I certainly hope so.

Nothing I've said disputes the need for internal development or diminishes the role our current core of young players - some of whom haven't exactly made a seamless transition - will need to play for sustained success.  Nor is it a call for stupid FA spending.  It very much is an argument that time needs to be thought of differently now that two very successful regular seasons are behind the O's and the huge impediment of Angelos ownership is no longer a factor.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, 24fps said:

The when is really two questions.  One is when do the O's stop being handicapped by the risk-averse mindset that's governed their behavior since 2018, and the second is when does a 74 year-old billionaire tire of being told he has to wait a little longer because Jackson Holliday needs to further refine his new toe-tap?  Oh, and we also need to nail down a position for Coby Mayo, and so on.  No question?  I think the questions are numerous and many of them pretty important, and because they're so important, I think we'll start seeing a change in approach beginning this offseason.  I certainly hope so.

Nothing I've said disputes the need for internal development or diminishes the role our current core of young players - some of whom haven't exactly made a seamless transition - will need to play for sustained success.  Nor is it a call for stupid FA spending.  It very much is an argument that time needs to be thought of differently now that two very successful regular seasons are behind the O's and the huge impediment of Angelos ownership is no longer a factor.

But again, nothing you say here changes anything. This team is going to be built from within. They are not going to try to build any other way…and they are right about that.

This doesn’t mean they don’t need to spend but again, those guys will supplement the roster.

And don’t think they won’t talk about how they added guys at the deadline for 2025. That they are “like free agent signings”.

Edited 1 hour ago by Sports Guy

[24fps]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But again, nothing you say here changes anything. This team is going to be built from within. They are not going to try to build any other way…and they are right about that.

This doesn’t mean they don’t need to spend but again, those guys will supplement the roster.

And don’t think they won’t talk about how they added guys at the deadline for 2025. That they are “like free agent signings”.

What team doesn't "build from within" to a significant degree?  Going forward are the O's going to build like every Yankeees team since the beginning of free agency?  No.  Are they going to build like the 2021 Orioles - also no.  I think this might be getting close to a semantic discussion over what supplement might mean, at the expense of substance.

I don't understand what's behind your last comment.  They were deadline trades.  Do you think Elias and Co. are going to point to them as justification for not spending this offseason?