Option decisions …

[btdart20]

58 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What if we could replace him with Kirby Yates on a 1 year deal for the same money? 

Yates will cost more in 2025 though right?  I haven't looked at either one's underlying metrics to have a strong opinion on who I would project for better 2025 stats, but Yates has earned a pay raise. 

Soto's BB% is his big issue.  Can he take the next step?  His September gives hope but very SSS.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Yates will cost more in 2025 though right?  I haven't looked at either one's underlying metrics to have a strong opinion on who I would project for better 2025 stats, but Yates has earned a pay raise. 

Soto's BB% is his big issue.  Can he take the next step?  His September gives hope but very SSS.

If Yates costs more than Seranthony's $8M, I doubt it would be by much. He is 38, albeit coming off a big year. I guess the Kimbrel contract would be a pretty big increase over Seranthony. I would rather have Yates though and we have only so much room for veterans.

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, 1fingerwillie said:

Agree completely. Elias signed these two for 25 and knew what they would cost. Soto is 6 million I believe. I personally am non tendering Perez.

Perez is more trusted than Soto.  Look at how they were used in the playoffs.  Soto was the last one of the 4 lefties used.  That lets you know where he stands.  Sure, he had a good ERA in his last 20 appearances, in what role though?  The TJ MacFarland, Mop up LHRP role?  

Soto was a shot in the dark.  I don't really care about his 5 million salary or if it was 5k.  The three other lefties are more valuable, and we need a free spot to shuttle in fresh arms.  

Akin - can go more than 3 outs

Perez - is trusted.  Doesn't give up homers.

Coloumbe - is a good setup man

Soto - put up a mop up ERA in low leverage.  

There's not room for 4 LH RP, but that's just my opinion.  We could always trade Soto.  

We'll see what Elias does?  I think we're going to see more moving and shaking this offseason.  

[HowAboutThat]

14 hours ago, BRobinsonfan said:

The last month of the season for him consisted of 9 innings in which he allowed 10 hits and a .286 batting average and a .324 OBP - Not exactly dominate.   Over his last 17.2 innings (The last two months of the season) he allowed 20 hits.  In August he also posted a .286 batting average and a .405 OBP.  Maybe we take a gamble on him returning to 2021/2022 form, but I'm not convinced we couldn't do better. 

Bad trade. Soto will stay, but not because he’s good.

[Orioles0615]

On 10/23/2024 at 6:58 AM, Roll Tide said:

Does Mateo make the team? 
 

per Roch

 

I am all aboard the get rid of Mateo train, but if its over 3 million that doesnt seem like a good sign 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I am all aboard the get rid of Mateo train, but if its over 3 million that doesnt seem like a good sign 

I think we should keep him but if you can get the same production for half the cost, you think that’s a dumb decision to make?

[Tony-OH]

* Eloy Jiménez: An easy no. He was a mistake and something Elias will hopefully learn from.

* Seranthony Domínguez: Dominguez is a potentially yes, but at $8 million with a 5.33 FIP he' not an automatic if they think they can get the same production cheaper. McDermott could be his replacement. Personally, I'd move on at his price tag.

* Ryan O'Hearn: Biggest question mark for me. O'Hearn gives some nice PAs, but two years in a row he disappeared in the second half. I think you need more power from a DH who is a below average defensive 1B. It may comes down to Mountcastle and him and with Mayo probably going to be in the competition, the Orioles may decide to keep O'Hearn. 

* Danny Coulombe: And easy yes.

* Cionel Pérez: A lot of "hate" around here for Perez, but his FIP (3.30) was much better than his ERA, he gest GB (55%), doesn't give up homers (0), and gets lefties out (.599 OPS) and isn't bad against righties (.690 OPS). He's not overly expensive so I think he's coming back.

[CP0861]

22 hours ago, BRobinsonfan said:

The last month of the season for him consisted of 9 innings in which he allowed 10 hits and a .286 batting average and a .324 OBP - Not exactly dominate.   Over his last 17.2 innings (The last two months of the season) he allowed 20 hits.  In August he also posted a .286 batting average and a .405 OBP.  Maybe we take a gamble on him returning to 2021/2022 form, but I'm not convinced we couldn't do better. 

In his last 20 appearances he had a 1.10 ERA and allowed a .190 BA....over 1K per inning and less than one runner per inning. He absolutely finished strong after the 2 early stinkers.

[ScGO's]

I'm bringing all the options back except Eloy. I believe in depth, and with Rubenstein, these dollars shouldn't scare him

I feel Mountcastle and Urias may be on the trade block, so keeping Ohearn for depth is wise

I want all the LHPs, Perez, Soto, Akin, and Columbe. Good problem to have, trade one in offseason or ST if it gets too crowded

With Bautista coming back, I wonder if Seranthony thrives in a set up roll, 7th inning guy

[ScGO's]

And, if he's healthy, I 100 per want Mateo back in a Super Utility role. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, CP0861 said:

In his last 20 appearances he had a 1.10 ERA and allowed a .190 BA....over 1K per inning and less than one runner per inning. He absolutely finished strong after the 2 early stinkers.

Soto put those numbers up, but in TJ Macfarand-esque low level situations.

He was the last “regular” reliever used in the playoffs as well. So that should tell us all that he’s behind the other three lefties in minds of Hyde and Elias. 

We could pick up all the options sans Eloy, and look to make moves. 

We were in a desperate situation last year because of injuries and had to acquire arms in Dominguez and Soto. The Phillies wanted to upgrade from those arms, so why shouldn’t we?  We did what we had to do, now it’s time to see if we can possibly upgrade.

2025 Bullpen - 8 spots

(4) RH - Bautista, Cano, Dominguez, Webb

(3) LH - Coloumbe, Akin, Perez

Shuttle spot (1) 

[BRobinsonfan]

4 hours ago, CP0861 said:

In his last 20 appearances he had a 1.10 ERA and allowed a .190 BA....over 1K per inning and less than one runner per inning. He absolutely finished strong after the 2 early stinkers.

Are you talking about Soto?  

[LookitsPuck]

Folks that I would not bring back:

• Soto
• Jimenez
• Perez

I'm not enamored with Seranthony Dominguez, but he's a fine hedge in the event that Felix isn't effective and/or healthy next year. 

I'm on the fence w/ O'Hearn. He's basically a platoon DH against righties. I know he can play 1B, but he's not great there. But I think there is value in a 1B platoon with Mounty as the two of them combined can be a 4 bWAR player for ~$13m combined. I just don't think you can reasonably find that on the market as the 1B situation is pretty dire. It's basically Pete Alonso and a bunch of older/risky players in Goldschmidt and Christian Walker, both righties that would have similar struggles with Waltimore, IMHO.

Who I think Elias doesn't bring back:

• Jimenez
• Perez

My guess is Elias looks at Soto as a replacement for Perez. Maybe some of the tweaks to Soto are sustainable next year, but I'm not convinced, TBH. 

[interloper]

Perez seems like an easy re-up to me. You need arms, they're not all going to be perfect. He's got some strengths.

[e16bball]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Ryan O'Hearn: Biggest question mark for me. O'Hearn gives some nice PAs, but two years in a row he disappeared in the second half.

The splits for the second half definitely do kinda look like that on the surface, but it was more an issue of one awful slump, rather than an overall second half swoon, especially in 2023.

In 2023, he really just had a terrible week or so, which unfortunately happened to be the last week of the season. He went 0 for his last 23, dropping his OPS from .855 to .801 in the process. Prior to that dreadful week, he’d posted an .846 OPS in the second half.

This past season, of course, it was almost a whole terrible month — starting right around the day Mountcastle went out. From 8/18 to 9/15, he put up a .411 OPS over the span of 80 PAs. Absolutely awful. But sandwiched around that malaise were two good second half stints, with a combined .926 OPS in 130 second half PAs before and after that tailspin. 
 

Anyhow, I don’t think there’s any way they decline that option. The guy is a quality hitter, so even if they do want to move on — which I don’t think they will — he’d have value to somebody at that relatively low price. Especially if they were willing to eat a few bucks to sweeten the return.

If they somehow get a bona fide starting RF from outside the organization, then I think maybe they move him. You don’t want him blocking Kjerstad again, but at present, I think it’s reasonable to imagine that they could both find 400-500 PAs.