After Two Weeks of Pie...

[TyCobb]

Pie was in AAA and was 23.

Reimold was in AA at 24. Montanez was in AA at 26.

Do you think AAA is a significant upgrade over AA?

[J.D.]

That isn't my point. The point is NO OTHER TEAM STEP UP to beat that offer. If he was such a talent as you guys think he is there would have been teams lined up to put him on the bench to work out until he can play CF.

Do you guys know who the CF for the New York Yankees is? Brett Gardner. The Yankees didn't think Pie was worth an upgrade over Brett Gardner.

How exactly wasn't that your point? There are plenty of CFs that the Yankees passed on. That doesn't make Brett Gardner better than every single one of those CFs.

You know what? I'm tired of having this argument. Despite him being 24, you're exactly right. He's not playing well in 13 games. The Yankees didn't want him. He's a piece of garbage. Get rid of him.

[ChrisAF79]

Do you think AAA is a significant upgrade over AA?

I'm not J.D., but yes. AAA is a significant upgrade over AA.

[DrungoHazewood]

You left out a very important part of my posting you responded to. I wrote, "Relevant ages count only while a player is trying to prove himself at the minor league level." So yes, a younger player will be projected to get better than an older player, on average, if they have the same stats. But in this case, Montanez had THE BEST STATS, period. He won the triple crown. (If there were a 20-year-old who matched him, then he'd be projected as having more potential.) A proven major leaguer couldn't do much better than what he did. As I said earlier, what does he have to do, bat .600? The same logic would always follow him around, that he can't be more than a 4th outfielder because he's 27. The same logic could have been applied to Mora and so many others. (There was a recent discussion of Roberto Clemente; thank god he could play defense, or the world would never know he could hit, since he couldn't really hit until, yep, age 27!)

He's doing better than they are because he's better than they are. The younger, weaker players may catch up because they are younger, but the older guy, who won the triple crown, has already reached a level beyond them. If winning the triple crown isn't enough to prove himself, just what does he have to do? (I'm tempted to put together a list of late-blooming players, but it isn't worth the time.)

-Larrytt

We all want Luis Montanez to be a great player but chances are that's as good as he'll ever be. Translate those spectacular numbers into a major league context and he's an average MLB left fielder.

He is Jon Knott. Knott put up five times as many .900 OPSes as Montanez in the minors. Or JR House. Guys who could play a role on a good team. Guys who could play 140 games in left or DH for a team with a big hole. But not major league stars. Not even average regulars.

I loved Jon Knott, and thought he got a raw deal. But you just don't discard five tool guys with good minor league resumes at 24 for Jon Knott.

[TGO]

Have you ever heard the term "a wash?" They do happen in professional sports...

It was a gamble that didn't work, so you let Reimold have his chance. If Reimold tears it up or performs better than Pie which he likely will, what exactly have you lost?

The faith that people have put into Pie because of his 2007 season in AAA is amazing.

A wash, eh. So at this point, you're ready to pronounce the ML careers of both Felix Pie and Garrett Olson over?

[Mark Carver]

I'm not J.D., but yes. AAA is a significant upgrade over AA.

Especially Prince George's Stadium vs Harbor Park Stadium. The latter is harder to hit in, at least in the past. They have changed the dimensions somewhat this year.

[Flosman]

Scott is probably past peak, Montanez's ceiling is right now as a league-average OF with poor defense, and Reimold is not much better offensively and worse defensively.

PECOTA's weighted mean for Reimold is .240/.313/.422. That's good for 1.5 WARP in about 500 PAs. Pie's is .263/.317/.412, good for almost a win more when defense is thown in.

PECOTA projects likely value through the 2015 season. Pie's projection isn't great because the system is conservative, but it's almost as high as the other three guys put together. Pie has about a 1-in-4 chance of being a star each year by these projections, while Scott is the only one of the other three who clears 15%, and that's only in 2009 and 2010.

I'm sure you think PECOTA is wrong.

I do suspect Reimold's 90% Pecota is very wrong. I have followed this guy from the time we drafted him and I suspect that Pecota or any projection system will have a hard time with him. Here is why I think this. I think he is a legit impact offensive prospect. When he is right I think he can be very impressive. I think he can hit to a 900+ OPS in the majors. The problem he has had over his career is he makes Scott look consistent. He has weeks and even months were he can't hit anything from anybody, then he has a period that he looks like he is going to be a HOFer. Nolan himself says that he gets in periods were he jumps at the ball and slumps badly. I think he needs to prove that he can sustain his production from the end of last season and so far this season over an extended period of time. If he does we might just have something worth while. While saying this a system like Pecota is not going to account for this type of player well IMO if he develops consistency. IF he were to find consistancy at his higher level of performance he will significantly out perform. If he is a player like Scott where he has hot periods and cold periods and the distribution does not change Pecota will have him pegged.

Because of this I don't think Nolan should be called up, unless we lose an outfielder for an extended period, until around the allstar break. If the numbers are still about were they are now then I think it would be time to see if he has found the consistancy he has been lacking and if ML pitchers are going to expose a weakness he can't overcome.

[J.D.]

Do you think AAA is a significant upgrade over AA?

Him being a year younger at a higher level, yes, it's significant. Factor in that Pie reached that higher level at 21 is even more significant.

[larrytt]

Winning the triple crown at AA as a 26 y/o is not enough to prove that he's going to be a good MLB player. It just isn't. He's gotta have a solid season at AAA against pitchers that have pitched in MLB and other better prospects than he saw at AA. He doesn't have to win the Triple Crown, but he's gotta hit at least as well as someone like Oscar Salazar.

Of course it's not enough to PROVE you can be a good MLB player. The only way to do that is to do so at the MLB level. This is true of everyone. But the minors - and winning the triple crown - are great indicators that he's got the potential to be a lot more than just a 4th outfielder, as you said, which is when I jumped into this discussion. (And note that many players made the jump from AA to the majors with little AAA experience, such as Markakis, who had no AAA experience, and only 124 AB at AA level.) I'm not saying Montanez doesn't have to play AAA, but if someone's going to jump from AA to the majors, I'd like the guy who was the best hitter at that level, i.e. Montanez.

-Larrytt

[TyCobb]

How exactly wasn't that your point? There are plenty of CFs that the Yankees passed on. That doesn't make Brett Gardner better than every single one of those CFs.

You know what? I'm tired of having this argument. Despite him being 24, you're exactly right. He's not playing well in 13 games. The Yankees didn't want him. He's a piece of garbage. Get rid of him.

"The reason we got Pie is because Chicago is a contender and couldn't afford to let Pie develop in the majors. Since he was out of options, they had to move him. They wanted Olson because they felt that they could turn Olson into something else that they wanted."

Chicago had to move him. Agreed. Olson was the best they could get. So a great player was given to us for a FAILED pitching prospect. Nobody wanted to outbid for Pie because nobody really wanted him.

I am done too. I will be going on a break from OH. This stuff gets annoying. When your in the minority, you are thought of as an idiot here.

[J.D.]

I just hope all the Pie bashers are consistent. If Reimold comes up, struggles at the plate, and has some mental errors in left, I really hope you guys only give him 13 days before you pass judgment on him.

[larrytt]

Pie and Reimold both have far better minor league track records, relative to their ages which is very important, than Montanez.

And yes, I think an average 4th OF could win the Triple Crown at AA. Maybe not every year, but in a hot year, and a guy like Montanez who can hit a fastball but struggles with better, more experienced pitcher, could do that fairly often. Look at guys like Knott and House. There are tons of guys who rake at AA and AAA but can't hang in the majors. Its not highly unlikely at all, its pretty damn close to probable.

Boy, do I disagree with much of what you wrote above, but I'm not going to spend much more time than this. The sheer number of top players who had worse minor league track records than Pie and Reimold is endless, but what counts is the FINAL product. Judge Montanez on his abilities NOW, not where he was before he got there. Otherwise, players like Mora (and many more) would stay utility players because of their track records, rather than what their actual abilities are or were. Montanez's track record is that he was the best hitter at AA, and he's ripping up AAA now, and you can't do better than that.

-Larrytt

[DrungoHazewood]

I am done too. I will be going on a break from OH. This stuff gets annoying. When your in the minority, you are thought of as an idiot here.

Who called you an idiot? If someone did, that's out of bounds.

But if you are going to take unpopular positions (and I've taken more than my share of them) you'd better be ready for the onslaught of posts willing to try to prove you wrong.

There are a lot of smart folks here. If you stand on assertions that can't be proven you'll be called on it.

[J.D.]

"The reason we got Pie is because Chicago is a contender and couldn't afford to let Pie develop in the majors. Since he was out of options, they had to move him. They wanted Olson because they felt that they could turn Olson into something else that they wanted."

Chicago had to move him. Agreed. Olson was the best they could get. So a great player was given to us for a FAILED pitching prospect. Nobody wanted to outbid for Pie because nobody really wanted him.

I am done too. I will be going on a break from OH. This stuff gets annoying. When your in the minority, you are thought of as an idiot here.

Chicago didn't think of Olson as a failed pitching prospect. Even if they spun him to someone else. They were talking about trying to include Olson in a trade for Peavy at some point, so San Diego certainly didn't think he was a failed prospect.

[DrungoHazewood]

Boy, do I disagree with much of what you wrote above, but I'm not going to spend much more time than this. The sheer number of top players who had worse minor league track records than Pie and Reimold is endless, but what counts is the FINAL product. Judge Montanez on his abilities NOW, not where he was before he got there. Otherwise, players like Mora (and many more) would stay utility players because of their track records, rather than what their actual abilities are or were. Montanez's track record is that he was the best hitter at AA, and he's ripping up AAA now, and you can't do better than that.

-Larrytt

Thing is, where he is now is probably about as far as he'll go. And like Knott and House that's a decent major leaguer, if he gets the chance.

There's no rational reason to believe that Montanez is going to peak late, and carry his gains for years. 2008 was probably his peak. Everyone's favorite players can't buck the odds.