Keith Law...

[Dipper9]

This is what Flosman said in another thread and he is 100% right:

Actually this view is overly simplistic. Wieters is likely to lose financially over the course of his career if he does not sign. Even if he gets his 8-10 Million next draft cycle. All of his service time related milestones are likely to be pushed back a year. In other words he hits arbitration a year later, he hits FA a year later, he as an additional option year that can delay his big league service clock. If he is as good has some think his second arbitration year could be worth more than his entire signing deal. I think it would be very hard to walk away from 6-8 million today for a CHANCE at 8-10 next year, when a club can really play hard ball with him. Say a team drafts him and tells him 6 million is what we are offering period. He can choose to take it or play independent league ball for 40K a year. Boras has to make a deal happen also. They are playing chicken right now, my guess is both sides blink within the next few hours

I hope you're right SG and Flosman, because we are getting too close to the deadline here. Contracts still have to be signed, physicals taken, and all paperwork to the MLB offices. If a deal was signed and he was taking his physical, wouldn't that be leaked at some point soon???? I am losing the little bit of hope that I had left!

[Greg Pappas]

Who cares? Both got the job done.

I do think Porcello has/had more leverage than Wieters though.

How so? Explain please =)

[Lucky Jim]

How so? Explain please =)

He's younger. The threat of going back into the draft and not signing (and so losing a second year) is far less for a kid who's 18 than a kid who's 21.

Time is a finite resource for all of these players. And Wieters has three fewer years than Porcello.

That's just one reason. Maybe there are others. But it's the biggest.

[Flosman]

After many days of discussing this, the most I'd pay him is $10M. Tex money, adjusted for inflation, minus the talent/production differential. Of course, I'd start at $7M and see if he blinks, but end of the day, that's as high as I'd go.

I am betting on a deal that guarantees 6-7 million with 1-2 million in easily obtainable bonuses and another 1-2 in aproaching superstar bonuses. Boras wins by saying he got his client a 8-10 million dollar deal. The O's claim they got him for market value. O's help the club and Boras has ammo for getting 10 first rounders to sign with him next season. The Hangout has a few days of total confusion, not knowing what to think with us actually getting the deal done. Some will think Wieters is a sure fire HOFer, but he ends up going 0 for 8 to start his career and many after his first hit start proposing trading him when his value is high.

[Sports Guy]

How so? Explain please =)

Age is the biggie...Now, the injury factor is more on his side because he is a young pitcher but everything else is on his side.

[Chollie Eckman]

How so? Explain please =)

It would be easier for Porcello to improve his draft position than Weiters. If KC, Pittsburg, TB, etc draft again in front of the O's Weiters is falling from #5 next year probably. What's that worth to him?

[davearm]

The slots are not laughable, it's the fact that MLB does nothing about teams that go over them that is. The Orioles are just playing the game like everybody else. 2.5 million let alone 7 million is a heck of a lot of money to give to a guy who may become a solid ML player. The chance of said player getting injured or bombing is just as great if not greater than them becoming an impact MLer. Wieters isn't worth 7 million just like A-Rod isn't worth 240, but with baseball awash in cash, the ridiculous price for MLB players and draft picks is going to keep going up...

What exactly do you want or expect MLB to do here?

MLB is powerless to force teams to adhere to the slot recommendations.

MLB is also powerless to punish teams for exceeding the slot recommendations.

If MLB attempted either of the above, they'd have the union all over their arses for collusion, and the union would surely win. Personally I think MLB is pushing the legal envelope a bit here even as it is.

Unless/until a different system is collectively bargained and agreed to by MLBPA, this whole situation will remain a farce.

[Lucky Jim]

It would be easier for Porcello to improve his draft position than Weiters. If KC, Pittsburg, TB, etc draft again in front of the O's Weiters is falling from #5 next year probably. What's that worth to him?

I don't think either could improve much. How much wiggle room is there when you're the #2 and #3 prospect in the draft?

It's about the value of a year to each player. That value is > for Wieters than for Porcello. By far.

Why would Wieters fall and not Porcello, if the reason for falling is signability?

[DrungoHazewood]

What exactly do you want or expect MLB to do here?

MLB is powerless to force teams to adhere to the slot recommendations.

MLB is also powerless to punish teams for exceeding the slot recommendations.

If MLB attempted either of the above, they'd have the union all over their arses for collusion, and the union would surely win. Personally I think MLB is pushing the legal envelope a bit here even as it is.

Unless/until a different system is collectively bargained and agreed to by MLBPA, this whole situation will remain a farce.

This is spot-on. MLB needs some teams to go over slot so they can use those examples as evidence that there's no collusion. Last time the owners were found guilty of collusion they had to pay $280M (in late 80s money - that's about half a billion in 2007 dollars). That'll pay for a lot of Boras' clients' asking prices.

[DrungoHazewood]

How so? Explain please =)

Excellent explanation here.

[Chollie Eckman]

I don't think either could improve much. How much wiggle room is there when you're the #2 and #3 prospect in the draft?

It's about the value of a year to each player. That value is > for Wieters than for Porcello. By far.

Why would Wieters fall and not Porcello, if the reason for falling is signability?

Porcello was picked late in the first round. He is a HS pitcher which according to Greg65's studies is the riskiest draft pick. Obviously there were questions about signability and ability. If Porcello went to college and dominated like Price did he could potentially be the #1 pick. I doubt Weiters would be picked higher than 5 if he went back into the draft.

If Weiters bails the O's should say they offered $9 mil even if they didn't so he falls to the end of the first round next year.

[Lucky Jim]

Porcello was picked late in the first round. He is a HS pitcher which according to Greg65's studies is the riskiest draft pick. Obviously there were questions about signability and ability. If Porcello went to college and dominated like Price did he could potentially be the #1 pick. I doubt Weiters would be picked higher than 5 if he went back into the draft.

If Weiters bails the O's should say they offered $9 mil even if they didn't so he falls to the end of the first round next year.

Porcello is the consensus #1 high school arm. I don't think he could move up much, as his $7.6 million contract indicates. Just my estimation, of course.

The "27th Pick" element is irrelevant -- his contract will be based on talent. Whoever drafts him will pay him like a #1-3 pick. As we've seen.

[orioles119]

Porcello was picked late in the first round. He is a HS pitcher which according to Greg65's studies is the riskiest draft pick. Obviously there were questions about signability and ability. If Porcello went to college and dominated like Price did he could potentially be the #1 pick. I doubt Weiters would be picked higher than 5 if he went back into the draft.

If Weiters bails the O's should say they offered $9 mil even if they didn't so he falls to the end of the first round next year.

If Wieters walks from $9 million gauranteed... good riddance.

[Chollie Eckman]

I think this way of not slotting is almost as damaging to small market teams as NYY FA contracts. If they can't pick the Porcellos/Weiters of the world because of $, they'll never get better.

[Tx Oriole]

If the O's FO has offered Weiters 6 million per then that is not the fault of the O's if he goes abck to GT. The money is getting out of hand what some guy wants to paly a game. Hell Don't blame the FO for this not getting done if indeed it does not get done.