BA ranks the top RH Pitchers in the 2009 Draft

[jamesenoch]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268137.html

Top 5 are Strasburg, White, Gibson, Scheppers, and Crow.

[JCK]

Is there something about White that everyone else knows that I don't? I've never seen him pitch but I find it hard to believe that a guy with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 whip 11 wild pitches, 5 hit batsmen and just 88 strike outs in 82 innings is the second best RHP in this draft.

[O's fan from NC]

Is there something about White that everyone else knows that I don't? I've never seen him pitch but I find it hard to believe that a guy with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 whip 11 wild pitches, 5 hit batsmen and just 88 strike outs in 82 innings is the second best RHP in this draft.

I saw White pitch against Miami who at the time was top 10 in the country I believe. He threw a complete game 1 hitter while striking out 9. Don't be deceived by that sort of ERA at the collegiate level. Aluminum bats play heavily into that statistic.

[allstar1579]

Is there something about White that everyone else knows that I don't? I've never seen him pitch but I find it hard to believe that a guy with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 whip 11 wild pitches, 5 hit batsmen and just 88 strike outs in 82 innings is the second best RHP in this draft.

It's more prior reputation at this point, he was one of, if not the best pitcher coming into the year, but he has been pretty so-so this year, so it's hurt his stock a bit. People are looking at the tools he has, not his stats. His sinker is one of the best since Webb, in a HR park he could be a very sought after kinda guy. (Like Erickson here in CY, keep the ball on the ground, have success).

[JCK]

I saw White pitch against Miami who at the time was top 10 in the country I believe. He threw a complete game 1 hitter while striking out 9. Don't be deceived by that sort of ERA at the collegiate level. Aluminum bats play heavily into that statistic.

His stuff could be off the charts, but he has 11 wild pitches in 82 innings. That's almost one every 7 innings! He has allowed 32 walks, and hit 5 batters. That's a lot of baserunners that didn't even have to swing their aluminum bats to get on.

Plus, that shutout you saw was his only one of the season. His only complete game as well. 1 CG in 12 starts is not what you expect out of a top-5 talent.

This is probably the one guy I will be seriously disappointed if we draft.

[jamesenoch]

Is there something about White that everyone else knows that I don't? I've never seen him pitch but I find it hard to believe that a guy with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 whip 11 wild pitches, 5 hit batsmen and just 88 strike outs in 82 innings is the second best RHP in this draft.

I agree with you. And I know one thing. I will be disappointed if the Orioles select him in the draft.

[crawdad]

I agree with you. And I know one thing. I will be disappointed if the Orioles select him in the draft.

Honestly . . . I don't think anyone can really be disappointed much with the pick as they does not seem to be anyone distancing themselves. I imagine Stotle and I will shadow draft someone who is not who the Orioles will pick. We will conclude that we like our guy better, have some reservations about the real pick, and conclude that there just is not much of a difference between the two to get one upset about.

[JCK]

Aaron Crow is 2-0 for Ft. Worth with a 0.00 ERA, 5 hits and 2 walks and 13k in 11ip.

Small sample, but the guy was #9 last year, and is probably just that much closer to the majors than White.

[Stotle]

I get the feeling some on here haven't seen White throw. Here's video I took. He's legit top 5 for me:

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EDIT -- looks like I messed up the tag on the first video -- both were obviously taken May 14, 2009 at BC.

[ShoelesJoe]

Aaron Crow is 2-0 for Ft. Worth with a 0.00 ERA, 5 hits and 2 walks and 13k in 11ip.

Small sample, but the guy was #9 last year, and is probably just that much closer to the majors than White.

I remember there were times last year where Crow was considered the possible #1 draft pick, and it was often a toss up whether he or Matusz was the best pitcher available. Given the consensus that the 2009 draft isn't nearly as deep as last year, where would the 2008 Crow rate in this year's draft if he hadn't gone independent?

[JCK]

I get the feeling some on here haven't seen White throw. Here's video I took. He's legit top 5 for me:

We all understand he has a good track record and good stuff, but what do you make of his very so-so season, including his lack of command?

[Stotle]

We all understand he has a good track record and good stuff, but what do you make of his very so-so season, including his lack of command?

He has shifted his arm slot throughout the season. It has lead to (among other things) inconsistency in his command and his slider taking a step back (it was generally unimpressive against BC but flashed plus twice, including the swing-and-miss by Sanchez in the video -- later in the game he hung one and Sanchez hit a sac fly to LF).

Much like Green, I see White's issues as fixable. He has one of the more lively arms in the draft and his splitter could be a very, very good pitch, as he throws it with good arm speed and on the same plane as his boring fastball.

Consistency in his arm slot and some ticks in his mechanics (without breaking them all out) could have drastic raminifcations. His arm action is easy, I don't see much in the way of injury concerns, and he could have the a great mix with potentially three plus pitches when all is said and done.

I'm not contending that he is clearly a top 5, but I think there is a clear argument for him anywhere from 1:2 down to 1:12 (I don't know that I'd drop him much lower than that).

[MarkF]

I saw White pitch against Miami who at the time was top 10 in the country I believe. He threw a complete game 1 hitter while striking out 9. Don't be deceived by that sort of ERA at the collegiate level. Aluminum bats play heavily into that statistic.

This is a great point that I think should be extended to all levels of baseball. I heard the latest version of Lee MacPhail (is it #IV?) interviewed last year and he was asked about how important statistics were in evaluating a player. He said that stats become less important as you go down the baseball food chain. That is because the really good players - both yours and the other teams' - get fewer, the fields get worse, the umpires get less consistent, etc., etc. Aluminum bats just add to the unreliability of stats.

That is why scouting becomes more important the further from MLB you go. Anybody can figure out that Pujols is a great player. Predicting the future of a 17 year old from Nowhere, Montana with great stats is not so easy.

[allstar1579]

His stuff could be off the charts, but he has 11 wild pitches in 82 innings. That's almost one every 7 innings! He has allowed 32 walks, and hit 5 batters. That's a lot of baserunners that didn't even have to swing their aluminum bats to get on.

Plus, that shutout you saw was his only one of the season. His only complete game as well. 1 CG in 12 starts is not what you expect out of a top-5 talent.

This is probably the one guy I will be seriously disappointed if we draft.

That is because he throws a sinker in the 93-94 range, a pitch that hard and fast that always ends up out of the strikezone is going to lead to higher pitch counts, meaning less complete games. Also, if you've ever scored a game you know that the difference between a passed ball and a wild pitch is the blink of an eye, some are obvious, but most could go either way. If he is throwing a hard sinker that dives that is going to mean plenty of balls in the dirt that could be called a WP. You need to do the HW and find out if those WP are completely out of the area, or if they are from the sinker before you pay them any attention.

[markpolis]

He has shifted his arm slot throughout the season. It has lead to (among other things) inconsistency in his command and his slider taking a step back (it was generally unimpressive against BC but flashed plus twice, including the swing-and-miss by Sanchez in the video -- later in the game he hung one and Sanchez hit a sac fly to LF).

Much like Green, I see White's issues as fixable. He has one of the more lively arms in the draft and his splitter could be a very, very good pitch, as he throws it with good arm speed and on the same plane as his boring fastball.

Consistency in his arm slot and some ticks in his mechanics (without breaking them all out) could have drastic raminifcations. His arm action is easy, I don't see much in the way of injury concerns, and he could have the a great mix with potentially three plus pitches when all is said and done.

I'm not contending that he is clearly a top 5, but I think there is a clear argument for him anywhere from 1:2 down to 1:12 (I don't know that I'd drop him much lower than that).

Stotle, one thing I haven't seen you mention about White is that he's a plus athlete with a bulldog mentality on the mound. I agree his flaws are mechanical and very fixable. IMO, his competitive makeup and athletic ability should also be taken into consideration.

He reminds me a lot of Jake Arrieta. If Jordon and Kranitz feel his mechanical flaws are easily fixable I could easily see the Orioles selecting him at 1:5 and I (for one) would not be disappointed with the pick.

BTW, in BA's Draft Chat today our very own Greg Pappas asked John Manuel how he ranked Crow, White, Gibson and Scheppers.

John Manuel stated the following about White:

"I am a White guy. I have no problem with the split, and he's shown the plus slider in the past, though he's lost his feel for it now. It's in there. He competes, he's athletic . . . I'm an Alex White guy. I'd go White-Crow-Scheppers-Gibson."