Who are we looking at to take with our 1st round pick?

[Orioles_Magic]

It seems like the only player getting a lot of talk in the upcoming draft is Stephen Strasburg, and we already know that he's going to Washington.

I was just wondering who we're looking at with our pick?

[kakesmvp]

I would LOVE to get Ackley... won't happen though.. probably Crow from what I hear.

[mark_beckens]

not 2 be a jerk, but there is a draft section that this should be posted in, with the other threads about who we should draft with our 1st pick

[bird watcher]

not 2 be a jerk, but there is a draft section that this should be posted in, with the other threads about who we should draft with our 1st pick

The original poster probably didn't know.

We could be a little more helpful around here and offer a link when someone posts in the wrong place.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=46

[QBsILLEST1]

With our pick, we are IMO going to take either, Crow, Scheppers, Matzek or Green. Outside shot at us taking maybe Alex White or Gibson or even Tate....But I would be pretty surprised if we took any of those 3...Turner, Wheeler,Purke and Miller should also be in the conversation. It really is gonna be a toss up, but in my mind I have it narrowed down to the 4 I listed in the beginning.....

[mapierce]

Scheppers and Crow have double appeal to the O's. They both should be fairly easy signings. Heck, Crow would have signed for 4M last year. I just can't believe the O's would take a chance on Scheppers with the mystery regarding his injury. If it was a stress fracture I think it's 100% that they wouldn't take him #5. If Crow is there I could definitely see him as their pick. Otherwise, nothing would surprise me. Since there isn't a great divide between most of the talent after Strasburg, I think the O's stay away from Boras clients and injury risks. Why deal with Boras if the talent is close? They won't.

If we pick Crow we could totally low ball him. What is he going to do? Go play another year in the Independent League?

[bej6789]

One of two ways I see this pick going --

The first is either Crow (if he's there), or Gibson. Both represent relatively safe players to reach the big league rotation soon. You can pencil either one in for the next 6 years in the same way as Matusz.

The second way I see the pick going is Matzek. This scenario, at least to me, presents an interesting dilemma/situation for the Orioles. As it stands right now, one can make the case that when you project the Orioles rotation -- all slots are filled. Obviously, it's not going to work out that way... but currently there's the makings of a semi-logjam with the number of rotation slops open. With Matzek, you could stick him in the minors for three years and then use him as that trade bait to net you the premier player you've been wanting. Either that, or what the Orioles sweep one series every other week with Tillman, Matusz and Matzek going after each other.

Sounds cool to me....

[wickedwitch]

If we pick Crow we could totally low ball him. What is he going to do? Go play another year in the Independent League?

Yep. I don't know what slotting is for the 5th pick (BA subscribers can see what BA's estimates for last year were), but he can't afford to turn it down.

[Greg Pappas]

If we do pick Crow, we will offer him a fair deal. You don't invest a #1 this high on a player that you low-ball and take advantage of... you start off on the right foot.

[Duke2010]

If we do pick Crow, we will offer him a fair deal. You don't invest a #1 this high on a player that you low-ball and take advantage of... you start off on the right foot.

I agree. If we were to take him, we do have leverage, but I see that leverage as a way of getting him to sign a deal at slot value, rather than the $4 million he was looking for last year. I highly doubt that he'd turn down slot at #5, and this way we can splurge in the later rounds. I don't see Crow or his agent wasting much time, and at the highest I see his number being is 3.2 million, which is what Matusz signed for last year.

[JCK]

Crow is my favorite pitcher not named Strasburg, but I feel that the leverage issue is one that another team, like the Pirates might try to take advantage of. For a team that doesn't love to spend on the draft, it's best of both worlds for them. Top-5 talent for reasonable money.

If the pick is Crow, I certainly won't be disappointed. Same with Green, Gibson, and even Tate.

[allstar1579]

If Strasburg, Ackley, and Crow are all gone will Jordan fool us and take Donovan Tate? He loves to draft athletes and this kid is definitely one. Although he's a huge signability risk and a Boras client, the O's may well just say, "what the heck, there's no one else that stands out at #5 and we'll take the compensation pick next year if we can't sign Tate to a reasonable contract. Remember too that being a two sport star allows the O's to keep the bonus reasonable and the money high, spreading it out over up to 5 years. It just seems to me that there are no really clear cut guys in this draft after Strasburg and Ackley. Tate might fit the bill.

I guess the same reasoning would apply to any Boras client that the O's like. I guess Grant Green could fall into this as well. Depends on how much stock they put into his Cape Code season and how much they believe this season is not the real Grant Green.

I pray he doesn't. Another problem with Tate is if he is looking for a ML deal for as much money as he is reportedly asking for (I've seen anywhere from $5-8 mil) then you are stuck with a HS kid on a ML contract which is never a good idea. (See Loewen, Adam, even though he went to CC for a year, he was basically a HS kid and it rushes their development).

I don't like Tate at all honestly, but trying to be subjective, he's toolsy and all, but I think you should be drafting guys with polish in the first round and taking toolsy guys later. He's got a hole the size of a Buick in his swing especially for offspeed stuff, and there are pitchers that will be available with 3 plus pitches. It should be a no-brainer.

[allstar1579]

With Tate being talked about so high in the draft I assumed he didn't have huge issues. If he's as raw as you say, I totally agree.

It's not that he has HUGE issues, as far as HS kids go, he's got talent and should be a good ballplayer, but he's not as good as people are making him out to be, he's just another in a long line of "5-tool" HS kids, most of whom don't pan out. He reminds me of Darnell McDonald if that tells you anything.

My biggest problem is that he is trying to use college as leverage and can't even commit to being a baseball player. I just get the impression that his true desire is to play in the NFL and if he can't get there then he'd go play baseball. That is not the kind of player I want in my organization. I mean he's already being talked about as a top 3 pick, what that isn't high enough? You have to use the threat of college to try to get a small ransom? I just can't stand when guys sit on the fence like that and try to have it both ways. If you want to go to college, great! good for you, you should (like Brady last year). But don't say oh, I might sign if the numbers are right, but I do have a 2-sport commitment to this school.

[Stotle]

Allstar,

Is there a difference between what you are saying Tate is doing and someone telling teams that they really want to go to school for the college experience?

I guess I'm just (no offense intended) rubbed the wrong way a bit by your characterizations of Tate this spring -- especially since his family stated early on that they weren't going to discuss anything in public, and that Tate was committed to UNC.

I guess I don't see that as being any different than Purke saying "I'm not even thinking about the draft, I'm focused on the high school season and pitching for TCU next year -- whatever happens with the draft happens." (me paraphrasing Purke).

[Stotle]

With Tate being talked about so high in the draft I assumed he didn't have huge issues. If he's as raw as you say, I totally agree.

For whatever it's worth, I don't think Tate has huge issues. I think gauging a player's interest is pretty easily done by sitting down and speaking with him. He could stay up the middle (in center field) and end up an average hitter with plus power, plus to plus-plus speed, plus defense and a plus arm.

I've seen him twice, and neither time was he dogging it. He had great at bats, working the count against some of the better HS competition in the class, and was aggressive and observant on the base paths.

I don't know how much I'd spend on him -- I'd have to sit down and figure out what he was looking for, and to be honest he may be better off going to school -- but I don't have any doubts that he could be a good to great major league outfielder.