The Hobgood pick

[geschinger]

Until I see evidence that contradicts it I think that economics definately do play a role in the selection but that it is not necessarily indicitive of the kind of budget Jordan has to work with.

It seems to me that Jordan has an idea of a players worth and isn't going to shoot past that regardless of whether or not he has the budget for it. In other words, whether he had a $5m or a $50m budget I think Hobgood would have been preferable to him over some of the other prep arms who may have graded out slightly higher but whose demands were sky high.

[Can_of_corn]

Until I see evidence that contradicts it I think that economics definately do play a role in the selection but that it is not necessarily indicitive of the kind of budget Jordan has to work with.

It seems to me that Jordan has an idea of a players worth and isn't going to shoot past that regardless of whether or not he has the budget for it. In other words, whether he had a $5m or a $50m budget I think Hobgood would have been preferable to him over some of the other prep arms who may have graded out slightly higher but whose demands were sky high.

Not sure if I like that if it is the case. Jordan's job should be to maximize what the O's can get given where they are drafting and what they are willing to spend. If he has the budget room to, for instance, pick up a top 5 talent with the 20th pick, he should make the pick regardless of any personal feeling of what the player *should* be getting (budget allowing of course).

For the record I do not think Jordan is doing what you suggested.

[Stotle]

While I don't think anything should hang on rankings of services such as Baseball America or Perfect Game, I think they are useful for getting a snapshot of how the industry on the whole views certain draft eligible players. I don't have any issue with Hobgood's stuff, his make-up or anything like that. I do think it's worth noting that (openly, at least) Hobgood's name was not linked with a couple of teams with traditional CA ties, most notably SFN, SEA and LAA. That doesn't mean he wasn't high on their board, just that no one reporting on the draft heard enough interest through their contacts that Hobgood was a serious target (I think he would have been for LAA and ARI, were he around).

My personal preference is to get a little more projection in a high school pick, and I have some non-stuff related reservations about a Hobgood pick at 1:5. Further, I think it's a little disingenuous to say that Hobgood's stuff is easily as good or better than the other prep arms -- were that the case I think he would have been bandied about a little more as a top 10 guy. But it's still among the best in the draft class, particularly his curve. He also seems to have excellent make-up/work ethic, so I'm sure BAL feels it will be able to get the absolute most out of him, which is fantastic.

All of that said, Jordan will be, and should be, judged by how his picks perform, not by how many Baseball America Top 100 guys he lands every year. I think it's prudent and appropriate to let his class play out a bit before levying any heavy criticism. I'm interested to see who signs and for how much -- it'll be an interesting summer, for sure.

[bej6789]

I was shocked initially by the pick, but as things have cooled down -- I'm not really sure. Joe Jordan has proven to be good at what he does, so doubting him seems like it'll take me nowhere. That being said, I still have my reservations about the pick. I believe Jordan when he says it wasn't about money, I truely do... but I still have that feeling in the back of my mind that if some of the other arms had demands in the Hobgood slotting range then it'd be more of a debate. The pick might've not been about money, but it had to of played a part. Talent wise, my input is basically useless. Following infrequently regarding draft prospects, I'd never heard of Hobgood prior to the day before the draft after he was named Gatorade player of the year. Not knowing what the criteria of winning such an award, it's hard to place a real value on it.

The part that gets me with players like Hobgood isn't the talent, as it's clearly there. You don't go in the first round as a highschooler unless you can project to the next level. It's more the track to the majors that has me scratching my head. I just don't see a scenario where he makes it to the majors in under 3.5/4 years -- and I'm just not a fan of that. I like the college players who are more seasoned and ready to go.

The part that I can speak of, with reference to the sun article, is the young mans character. Amazing. The piece done by the Sun was tremendous regarding his upbringing and what kind of man he is. Without a doubt he is the exact type of character I want in the clubhouse no matter what team he plays for. He understands how things work in life, and he hasn't had anything given to him on a silver platter. Most importantly, he was brutally honest in his interviews. You have your high school players (Matzek in particular) doing their pieces with ESPN during the draft and using such agent speak to posture in negotiations that it wasn't even funny. Hobgood made no bones about his intentions to sign, and being straight and honest with a team goes a long way. He hates losing, and his first batter that he wants to strike out is A-rod... Can you ask for anything better?

[QBsILLEST1]

While I don't think anything should hang on rankings of services such as Baseball America or Perfect Game, I think they are useful for getting a snapshot of how the industry on the whole views certain draft eligible players. I don't have any issue with Hobgood's stuff, his make-up or anything like that. I do think it's worth noting that (openly, at least) Hobgood's name was not linked with a couple of teams with traditional CA ties, most notably SFN, SEA and LAA. That doesn't mean he wasn't high on their board, just that no one reporting on the draft heard enough interest through their contacts that Hobgood was a serious target (I think he would have been for LAA and ARI, were he around).

My personal preference is to get a little more projection in a high school pick, and I have some non-stuff related reservations about a Hobgood pick at 1:5. Further, I think it's a little disingenuous to say that Hobgood's stuff is easily as good or better than the other prep arms -- were that the case I think he would have been bandied about a little more as a top 10 guy. But it's still among the best in the draft class, particularly his curve. He also seems to have excellent make-up/work ethic, so I'm sure BAL feels it will be able to get the absolute most out of him, which is fantastic.

All of that said, Jordan will be, and should be, judged by how his picks perform, not by how many Baseball America Top 100 guys he lands every year. I think it's prudent and appropriate to let his class play out a bit before levying any heavy criticism. I'm interested to see who signs and for how much -- it'll be an interesting summer, for sure.

How can it be said though that his stuff isnt as good as the others or BA would have had him ranked higher? Apparently he gaiend arm strength as the season went on and at the beginning of the year when BA does their rankings, he was only throwing 92-93 with no projection left. At the end he was topping out around 97 MPH. So he has a heavy moving fastball that touches 97 (I know that it doesnt move as much when thrown that hard, but still it will have some movement). Though his fastball isnt the best of the prep arms, it only lags behind Miller's and Turner's IMO as far as velo and movement. His curve is said to be the best of the draft class. That 1-2 punch is pretty good and I cannot see how anyone can say it doesnt match up with the rest of the rep arms best 1-2 punch. His other 2 pitches are average at best, but they could both develop into above average major league pitches with proper development. Only other prep pitcher with 4 pitches is Matzek. Any of the other prep arm's 3rd pitch is subpar as well for the most part, and if you are ranking his intangibles, its probably safe to say his are among the strongest, if not the strongest. Stotle, Im sure you can prove me otherwise because you seem pretty confident that he isnt 1st tier, but please prove me wrong.....

[Stotle]

How can it be said though that his stuff isnt as good as the others or BA would have had him ranked higher? Apparently he gaiend arm strength as the season went on and at the beginning of the year when BA does their rankings, he was only throwing 92-93 with no projection left. At the end he was topping out around 97 MPH. So he has a heavy moving fastball that touches 97 (I know that it doesnt move as much when thrown that hard, but still it will have some movement). Though his fastball isnt the best of the prep arms, it only lags behind Miller's and Turner's IMO as far as velo and movement. His curve is said to be the best of the draft class. That 1-2 punch is pretty good and I cannot see how anyone can say it doesnt match up with the rest of the rep arms best 1-2 punch. His other 2 pitches are average at best, but they could both develop into above average major league pitches with proper development. Only other prep pitcher with 4 pitches is Matzek. Any of the other prep arm's 3rd pitch is subpar as well for the most part, and if you are ranking his intangibles, its probably safe to say his are among the strongest, if not the strongest. Stotle, Im sure you can prove me otherwise because you seem pretty confident that he isnt 1st tier, but please prove me wrong.....

Short answer is that you are only looking at current stuff and not projected stuff. If two guys have similar stuff, but one has more room to grow and improve, I lean towards that guy.

As I said, his "stuff" is great. I think the lack of projection (as compared to some of the other arms) is what keeps him from being 1st tier in my own mind. There is a counter argument that he's safer since you are closer to knowing what you're going to get. I accept that argument, but don't value that safety over projection with a HSer at 1:5.

Also, if you read my post I say "I don't have any issue with Hobgood's stuff..." I think his failure to (openly) be linked with other top 10 teams possibly had more to do with projection, body type and motion (when combined with body type).

Let me know if I need to flesh any of that out -- been a long day (had to fly out to DET at 6am and am back at the airport waiting for the return flight to NYC).

EDIT -- Yuck, I just re-read that and it was sloppy....please excuse the rambling nature of the writing...

[QBsILLEST1]

Short answer is that you are only looking at current stuff and not projected stuff. If two guys have similar stuff, but one has more room to grow and improve, I lean towards that guy.

As I said, his "stuff" is great. I think the lack of projection (as compared to some of the other arms) is what keeps him from being 1st tier in my own mind. There is a counter argument that he's safer since you are closer to knowing what you're going to get. I accept that argument, but don't value that safety over projection with a HSer at 1:5.

Also, if you read my post I say "I don't have any issue with Hobgood's stuff..." I think his failure to (openly) be linked with other top 10 teams possibly had more to do with projection, body type and motion (when combined with body type).

Let me know if I need to flesh any of that out -- been a long day (had to fly out to DET at 6am and am back at the airport waiting for the return flight to NYC).

EDIT -- Yuck, I just re-read that and it was sloppy....please excuse the rambling nature of the writing...

ahhh that makes tons of sense. I understand now why many say he isnt up there with the other to prep arms. Is there much of a chance that as he gets into better shape (if he does) that he could gain more velocity?

Im still eagerly waiting your report on Hobgood, will it be posted fairly soon?

[Stotle]

ahhh that makes tons of sense. I understand now why many say he isnt up there with the other to prep arms. Is there much of a chance that as he gets into better shape (if he does) that he could gain more velocity?

Im still eagerly waiting your report on Hobgood, will it be posted fairly soon?

My "quick hit" on Hobgood will hopefully be up tonight. Full reports will come up once players sign (Hobgoods is almost completed). Will try to get Dalles up tonight if I don't fall asleep. I've got seven "Quick Hits" between 80-95% completed (so 35 total short write-ups), so just need to sit down and fix the coding and website-related issues (the "not-so-fun-not-so-baseball" stuff).

30-50 more players with Notes from the season, so just figuring out how many I can get up in a reasonable amount of time.