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BA Jim Callis Chat at ESPN


Stotle

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This is all I saw for Orioles stuff:

Nick (NYC)

Hobgood or Z. Wheeler -- first to big club? Better prospect?

Jim Callis (2:53 PM)

Wheeler for both answers.

And one for SG:

Patrick (Memphis)

Is Brett Wallace the best prospect in the Oakland A's system?

Jim Callis (2:58 PM)

I'm tempted to go with Grant Green.

Full chat here: http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/29269/mlb-with-jim-callis

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Green maybe better than Wallace? Wow.

I wish they had drafted him.

Based on what I know and what I've seen of the two, Green would have been my selection over Hobgood on draft day, as well. I think Green was still a borderline top 5 guy, along with Wheeler, Stras, Tate and Matzek.

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I think a lot of us were... surprised... by the Hobgood pick - given that picking that high was supposed to be a major benefit from stinking so badly the year before. And considering any average fan would have picked Green or even Wheeler over Hobgood from looking at any draft guide... suffice it to say, it's very important for certain careers that he turns out well.

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I think a lot of us were... surprised... by the Hobgood pick - given that picking that high was supposed to be a major benefit from stinking so badly the year before. And considering any average fan would have picked Green or even Wheeler over Hobgood from looking at any draft guide... suffice it to say, it's very important for certain careers that he turns out well.
Agreed, Hobgood won't be a situation where you can look back and say "well he was a smart pick at the time, he just didn't pan out". You can say that about someone like Snyder or Rowell if they don't end up making it (and Rowell isn't going to), but Hobgood was a reach at #5 according to just about everybody except for Joe Jordan. So this is a great example of a pick that will either prove to be a great one by Jordan if he hits, or a terrible one by him if he misses.

Jordan is definitely out there on a limb with Hobgood, he'll get all the credit if he becomes a good player, and all the blame if he doesn't make it. I certainly hope we end up talking about how smart Joe is.

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Agreed. And you don't ignore need, either.

There is little reason to consider need at the ML level when selecting in the amateur draft. Talent should be the top consideration, not need. Very few draftees pull a Brian Matusz and make it to the bigs in their first full pro season.

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There is little reason to consider need at the ML level when selecting in the amateur draft. Talent should be the top consideration, not need. Very few draftees pull a Brian Matusz and make it to the bigs in their first full pro season.

Why not? Top college players often aren't more than a season or a season and a half removed from the majors. This year, both Matusz and Gordon Beckham arrived within 14 months of draft day; Wieters got one full season and a month in the minors.

We're not talking about 18 YO kids here. These guys are 20 or 21 years old, have been scouted extensively for years, often when facing good competition, and they usually have a summer or two in wood bat leagues.

Besides, the Orioles didn't need Green to arrive in his first pro season. They have Izturis for another year, and by late 2010 they would have had a good handle on whether Green would be ready to take over in 2011.

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Why not? Top college players often aren't more than a season or a season and a half removed from the majors. This year, both Matusz and Gordon Beckham arrived within 14 months of draft day; Wieters got one full season and a month in the minors.

We're not talking about 18 YO kids here. These guys are 20 or 21 years old, have been scouted extensively for years, often when facing good competition, and they usually have a summer or two in wood bat leagues.

Besides, the Orioles didn't need Green to arrive in his first pro season. They have Izturis for another year, and by late 2010 they would have had a good handle on whether Green would be ready to take over in 2011.

Matusz/Beckham are the exception, not the rule. The "usual" path, I'd say, for a top college guy is something like:

Year 1 - HiA/AA

Year 2 - AA/AAA

Year 3 - ML or AAA/ML

Your last paragraph is why you don't draft for need. Your sacrificing talent on something you aren't even certain is an answer to your need.

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There is little reason to consider need at the ML level when selecting in the amateur draft. Talent should be the top consideration, not need. Very few draftees pull a Brian Matusz and make it to the bigs in their first full pro season.

Did Jordan consider Hobogood more talented than Green? Do you? Very subjective of course. But to me when talent is a toss up, as it is here, you go with the guy you have more information on. Green had a very successful college career and that is more info, you can have more confidence he will fulfill his talent. And by the way, he plays a position of need.

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Did Jordan consider Hobogood more talented than Green? Do you? Very subjective of course. But to me when talent is a toss up, as it is here, you go with the guy you have more information on. Green had a very successful college career and that is more info, you can have more confidence he will fulfill his talent. And by the way, he plays a position of need.

There's also the oft-repeated mantra to execute against. That is, "grow the arms, etc."

JJ has to follow the plan and if it's at all close in his head, he'll take a pitcher.

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Did Jordan consider Hobogood more talented than Green? Do you? Very subjective of course. But to me when talent is a toss up, as it is here, you go with the guy you have more information on. Green had a very successful college career and that is more info, you can have more confidence he will fulfill his talent. And by the way, he plays a position of need.

Green is closer to his ceiling, but Hobgood has a higher ceiling.

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