When will we be good again?

[ShaneDawg85]

Interesting you say that because Thrift and MacPhail are both micro-managing Orioles GM's who had success early and weren't able to ever repeat it. It's been said about both that they are "my way or the highway" type of people.

Now MacPhail isn't senile, but he seems very close-minded and unwilling to deviate from a plan that has not been proven to achieve sustained success no matter how many opportunties present themselves to do so.

Funny you try to lump the two together, since Thrift never had any success with the Orioles at all. Melvin Mora, oh wow.

For you to even begin to compare the individual whose moves almost single-handedly destroyed the franchise, with the person whose moves have breated life into the franchise, is beyond laughable. It is insulting.

[Bradysburns]

I liked the pillars. And Frank hit it into the Parking lot.

They were charming as hell. I used to live on St. Paul and 31st and walk to games. Best was afterwards, when everyone was walking by and you could sit on the stoop drinking beer (sorry, not Natty Boh), yelling about the game, or just soaking in all that is Baltimore in the summertime. (Great memories.)

[Bradysburns]

Well, critique is not the same thing as just criticism and nothing else. Critique implies that you're assessing the pro's and the con's.

As for whether the previous negative attitude and/or the current positive attitude are justified, I think both are.

The main thing I didn't like about the previous negative attitude is that I thought Flanny took too much crap for stuff that wasn't really his fault. But that's based on my opinion that he had one arm tied behind his back because PA didn't give him the same authority that he apparently has granted AM. I think Flanny basically knew what needed doing. I am 100% sure that he wasn't given free reign to fix it. I also think he probably didn't know exactly how to go about it as much as AM does, and maybe was in a little bit over his head, even if he had free reign. But none of that changes the fact that the franchise was crappy. I just think Flanny got a raw deal, that's all. We don't talk about "True Orioles" the way MFY fans talk about "True Yankees", but I think Flanny is indeed a True Oriole as much as anybody and way more than most, and I hope he can somehow be involved in a way that is useful and that he feels good about.

Agreed with all of this Flanny stuff. He's so shrewd, so calculated and so smart that I think he could have done essentially what AM is doing... had he been given the free reign AM seems to have. That's both an observation about the time period during which Flanny took the post (before PA had had enough of meddling and screwing everything up)... and a credit to AM's own shrewd, calculating approach.

Overall I am glad about where we are with AM. This season will be very telling and fun to watch our homegrown guys struggle forth into the AL East Thunderdome. Next offseason we should import 2 stud FAs and perhaps trade for one more premium guy... and compete for the wild card.

[Old#5fan]

When Peter Angelos and/or Andy MacPhail are no longer part of the organization.

As long as both of those people are in the organization, the Orioles will never commit the resources or take the risks neccessary to compete in the AL East IMO.

I really hope AM takes the commissioner's job after 2011 so we can get a GM in here that is willing to spend Angelos' money and take some risks to get the talent that we need. MacPhail is holding us back IMO.

Sadly, I think you are right on this. If this team had an owner like the Raves we would be competitive right now. I have no doubt whatsover.

[tntoriole]

Really, no way at all? Instead of making these hyperbolic pronouncements, why don't you give us your predictions for this much hyped core's numbers next season, to show how there is no way. What is Wieters OPS next season, in your opinion? Remold, Jones etc.?

Well...let's see...Wieter's OPS last year was .753, Jones was .792, Reimold in 104 games was team leader at .831...Markakis was at .801...Jones at .792... Luke Scott led the team in HRs with 25..

Toronto's leaders included Hill at .829 ( but with 36 HRs) and Lind at .932 (with 35 HRs)...

Tampa Bay's leaders included Zobrist .948 with 27 HRs, Longoria at .889 with 33 HRs, Bartlett at .879 and Crawford at .816..

So...do I think that Wieters is going to increase his OPS by 200 points to equal Zobrist or come close to his 27 HRs...(no, I don't think so...Wieters may likely increase to .800 OPS and hit 20-25 HRs...I think Reimold is not going to be at .831 for a full year- again .800 OPS with maybe 25 HRs...Jones was a player with two seasons last year...the first two months and the last two months- it remains to be seen if he is going to be more consistent, but I would not be surprised if he too is right at the .800 OPS range with 15-20 HRs..)..

Collectively, however, this still projects the Orioles offensively as significantly weaker than all other teams in the AL East and they may not equal last year's production if Reimold, Wieters have sophomore difficulties.

Their power production is abysmal...Luke Scott led the team with 25...I don't know that any of their 2010 lineup will hit 25 HRs...

But they are even worse from a pitching comparison standpoint for 2010 given that this will likely still be a development season for three of their five starters....

Right now they are counting heavily on three very young pitchers, Tillman, Matusz and Bergesen...Matusz has pitched 44 innings in the majors, Tillman 65 and Bergesen, coming off an injury, pitched 123 innings in 2010..

These three will have to take their growing pains lumps in 2010...I would be surprised if any of them had WHIPs less than 1.40 or had winning records in 2010 or won more than 12 games or had an ERA less than 4.50...

Tillman, in particular, had 15 HRs allowed in only 65 innings which would have projected to over 40 during a 200 inning season...

This is not to say that the players mentioned will not ultimately become good or even very good major league players....but it won't be enough in 2010 to reach Toronto's 75 wins last year, in my view.

[jcumansky28]

Oh boo hoo. If you present an argument with points, facts and minus insults then you will be treated fairly. If you come in with an attitude then you will receive attitude. Do you see any problem with this?

Yeah, but there was a lot more substance in his post than there were insults. The only thing the El Gordos and BaltiTerps of the world care about is how many "points" they've racked up while taking potshots at each other, and at other (especially newer and unallied) posters. The state of the board is lowered by such pissing contests--and this has become a pretty lame board, despite the fine stewardship of Drungo, Tony, and Folkemer. The OP brings up a valid, though hardly original point: The Orioles may be taking some steps to recovery, but will they be enough? The possibility exists we won't be contender-good for a long, long time. Seems simple enough just to ignore the OP if you find his chiding "insulting," his tack unoriginal, or opinion overly negative. I don't know why every OH post has to be measured and deconstructed like it claimed to be some rare gem.

For my part, the Orioles won't be good until they resign themselves to realizing they have to shell out top dollar for top FAs and trade subjects. McPhail's done all he can do--rebuilt and professionalized the whole system, and gotten the mostly cheap end of the work done. Now, we need an owner who spends and a GM who can pull the trigger. Or we need to be moved to the NL East.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Yeah, but there was a lot more substance in his post than there were insults. The only thing the El Gordos and BaltiTerps of the world care about is how many "points" they've racked up while taking potshots at each other, and at other (especially newer and unallied) posters. The state of the board is lowered by such pissing contests--and this has become a pretty lame board, despite the fine stewardship of Drungo, Tony, and Folkemer. The OP brings up a valid, though hardly original point: The Orioles may be taking some steps to recovery, but will they be enough? The possibility exists we won't be contender-good for a long, long time. Seems simple enough just to ignore the OP if you find his chiding "insulting," his tack unoriginal, or opinion overly negative. I don't know why every OH post has to be measured and deconstructed like it claimed to be some rare gem.

For my part, the Orioles won't be good until they resign themselves to realizing they have to shell out top dollar for top FAs and trade subjects. McPhail's done all he can do--rebuilt and professionalized the whole system, and gotten the mostly cheap end of the work done. Now, we need an owner who spends and a GM who can pull the trigger. Or we need to be moved to the NL East.

You know how I know you're a hypocrite?

[RShack]

For my part, the Orioles won't be good until they resign themselves to realizing they have to shell out top dollar for top FAs and trade subjects.

They can't trade subjects. People who are mad at PA might call him "King Peter", but he's not really a king, so he doesn't have any subjects. Even if he did, he couldn't trade them, and even if he could, no reason to think they could bring much in a trade. You need baseball players for that. Now, maybe you were talking about subjects like History and Chemistry, but I don't see how trading them helps either...

;-)

[MemorialStadKid]

Just proves that we can agree about some things ;-)

But we're not gonna agree about this.

The bolded part is where I think you are wrong. I think you have programmed yourself to filter out ways they can be explained, and you just insist that it's about the negative things you listed, which IMO you just make up out of nothing these days. The fact that it is certainly arguable that they may have been true before is irrelevant to today. I think you start from a belief that those things guide the franchise, and then you interpret almost everything in a way that fits with the idea you started with. For some of the examples you listed, I could provide you with alternate explanations, but that would not do any good because I know that you have already been presented with them, and you arbitrarily choose to pretend that you have not been, even though you have been.

Okay, if its not laziness, incompetence or disinterest, what other explanation could there be for the baffling behavior of the Orioles FO over the last decade?

It can't just be Angelos' ego. Most businesspeople I know tend to be very egotistical but they know -- if they aren't incompetent -- how to make smart deals and maximize return on investment.

To that point, Angelos must be a genius because he has created deals with MLB where the Orioles will make money no matter if they win or lose. Sure, he won't get the flush of money that comes with a winning squad, but then he won't have to spend too much of his own money to make the team be competitive in the AL East.

For him, its win-win.

With that said, what could be the rationale behind making public statements year after year that he intends to do things to improve the ball club etc. and then doing nothing of consequence?

If that isn't incompetence, and it isn't disinterest, then he must be a pathological liar or delusional, neither of which are admirable qualities for an owner of a mid-market team in the AL East.

So since those that have a problem with the Orioles FO are somehow crazy or wacky or "making things up" can someone with a keener mind please explain to me the behavior of the Orioles FO?

Thanks.

MSK

[Moose Milligan]

Okay, if its not laziness, incompetence or disinterest, what other explanation could there be for the baffling behavior of the Orioles FO over the last decade?

It can't just be Angelos' ego. Most businesspeople I know tend to be very egotistical but they know -- if they aren't incompetent -- how to make smart deals and maximize return on investment.

To that point, Angelos must be a genius because he has created deals with MLB where the Orioles will make money no matter if they win or lose. Sure, he won't get the flush of money that comes with a winning squad, but then he won't have to spend too much of his own money to make the team be competitive in the AL East.

For him, its win-win.

With that said, what could be the rationale behind making public statements year after year that he intends to do things to improve the ball club etc. and then doing nothing of consequence?

If that isn't incompetence, and it isn't disinterest, then he must be a pathological liar or delusional, neither of which are admirable qualities for an owner of a mid-market team in the AL East.

So since those that have a problem with the Orioles FO are somehow crazy or wacky or "making things up" can someone with a keener mind please explain to me the behavior of the Orioles FO?

Thanks.

MSK

So...Angelos doesn't want to field a winner and make more money?

What other conspiracy theories do we have here? Did Oswald act alone? Was the moon landing a hoax? What really happened at Area 51? Anything about 9/11?

You know, I gave El Trea a series of questions a couple weeks ago and whittled him down to this same little theory that you seem share with him...and even he admitted there's no logical explanation for it.

[El Gordo]

So...Angelos doesn't want to field a winner and make more money?

What other conspiracy theories do we have here? Did Oswald act alone? Was the moon landing a hoax? What really happened at Area 51? Anything about 9/11?

You know, I gave El Trea a series of questions a couple weeks ago and whittled him down to this same little theory that you seem share with him...and even he admitted there's no logical explanation for it.

Oswald acting alone wouldn't be a conspiracy. But don't worry, he didn't. PA was there on the knoll, :laughlol:

[RShack]

Okay, if its not laziness, incompetence or disinterest, what other explanation could there be for the baffling behavior of the Orioles FO over the last decade?

You're doing it again.

Look, if you have your mind made up that everything sucks and will continue to suck, that's up to you. It's a free country (more-or-less, so far anyway), so you can think whatever you want. But if you are serious about having decent discussions with people, instead of just throwing the same old bricks, then you need to realize that it's a very close-minded and biased assumption to act like everything over the last decade is the same, as if nothing has changed. To be realistic about it, you need to acknowledge that PA had a phase where he thought he was gonna grow Flanny into a GM, but without really letting him do it, and then he realized that wasn't working, at which point he got AM to show up, and he gave AM the car keys in a way that he never, ever gave them to Flanny. With Flanny, PA was like a back-seat driver who treated Flanny like he was on his learner's permit, and was always telling him to do-this and don't-do-that. Plus, it was worse than that: he wouldn't let him do anything without taking forever to check with HQ to get permission first. But since AM showed up, he has mostly butted out, finally. Since then, things started to change in ways that are very obvious and document-able.

You just gotta face facts about that, instead of staying stuck in out-of-date rants about how PA sucks and nothing much is different... assuming that you want to have reasonable conversations, that is. Maybe you don't wanna have reasonable conversations, maybe you just wanna repeat the same old crap forever, that's up to you. But don't fool yourself about what you're doing, because you're not fooling anybody else who tries to have decent discussions with you.

[Moose Milligan]

You're doing it again.

Look, if you have your mind made up that everything sucks and will continue to suck, that's up to you. It's a free country (more-or-less, so far anyway), so you can think whatever you want. But if you are serious about having decent discussions with people, instead of just throwing the same old bricks, then you need to realize that it's a very close-minded and biased assumption to act like everything over the last decade is the same, as if nothing has changed. To be realistic about it, you need to acknowledge that PA had a phase where he thought he was gonna grow Flanny into a GM, but without really letting him do it, and then he realized that wasn't working, at which point he got AM to show up, and he gave AM the car keys in a way that he never, ever gave them to Flanny. With Flanny, PA was like a back-seat driver who treated Flanny like he was on his learner's permit, and was always telling him to do-this and don't-do-that. Plus, it was worse than that: he wouldn't let him do anything without taking forever to check with HQ to get permission first. But since AM showed up, he has mostly butted out, finally. Since then, things started to change in ways that are very obvious and document-able.

You just gotta face facts about that, instead of staying stuck in out-of-date rants about how PA sucks and nothing much is different... assuming that you want to have reasonable conversations, that is. Maybe you don't wanna have reasonable conversations, maybe you just wanna repeat the same old crap forever, that's up to you. But don't fool yourself about what you're doing, because you're not fooling anybody else who tries to have decent discussions with you.

Fantastic post.

[tntoriole]

So...Angelos doesn't want to field a winner and make more money?

What other conspiracy theories do we have here? Did Oswald act alone? Was the moon landing a hoax? What really happened at Area 51? Anything about 9/11?

You know, I gave El Trea a series of questions a couple weeks ago and whittled him down to this same little theory that you seem share with him...and even he admitted there's no logical explanation for it.

It is not a matter of desire ...it is rather a question of whether Peter Angelos is a good leader of this organization...many companies that are led by egomaniacs end up not being as successful as those companies led by individuals who truly grow their organization and provide servant leadership (something Peter Angelos knows nothing about.)

I think Peter Angelos would desperately like to have a winner and certainly to make more money....though his team remains profitable even with 12 straight losing seasons.. as profitable as during the winning seasons due to the expenses being much less....

However, this desire does not come to fruition when it comes into conflict with other self defeating character traits...obsessional stubbornness- his belief that he knows more about running his team than his GMs do, self created problems in maintaining any continuity of leadership in an organization because of the personality clashes- i.e. Pat Gillick, Davey Johnson, etc. or by picking personal favorites who were not very capable...i.e. Flanagan...

These flaws have led the organization in many ways to be a place that few talented baseball people wish to work now or in the future and that is what has truly impaired the success of the organization. Can that change?...Sure, but it requires Angelos to continue to recognize his own flaws and actions as a major part of the past problems and to keep them in check in the future.

[MemorialStadKid]

You're doing it again.

You just gotta face facts about that, instead of staying stuck in out-of-date rants about how PA sucks and nothing much is different... assuming that you want to have reasonable conversations, that is. Maybe you don't wanna have reasonable conversations, maybe you just wanna repeat the same old crap forever, that's up to you. But don't fool yourself about what you're doing, because you're not fooling anybody else who tries to have decent discussions with you.

Let's be reasonable.

I have said in the past that I like the following:

a) farm system upgrade

b) extending Roberts and Markakis

c) keeping the young pitchers and letting them pitch

d) making basic inroads to the international market

But am I supposed to roll out the red carpet for AM when he only got us to the level of where an MLB franchise is supposed to be?

The area I have a problem is that IMO MacPhail is moving too slowly and too deliberately to get this team to the next level. It makes me wonder why Angelos has "backed off" because he has never shown to be the type of guy who gives power away to anyone.

I have always believed that MacPhail is just a kind of alter-ego for Angelos -- not literally -- but in a symbolic sense. Angelos went out and got a guy that is more conservative than himself and then handed him the keys to the warehouse.

That's like Nixon giving keys to Barry Goldwater. You're not talking about some major change or shift in philosophy. Its not like he went out and got some super sabermetric guy or some hotshot young executive with bold ideas to come in and be the GM. He went and found a good ol' boy with deep roots in the old system to come in to run the ship.

I am not going to celebrate or congratulate MacPhail for doing what is necessary. We needed to fix the farm, we needed to extend our core players, we needed to let the young guys get some playing time.

This is how a competent franchise operates.

Now, we have gotten things set up, its time to move to the next level, which is winning more games.

With how we're currently set in terms of talent, how successful do you imagine us to be for 2010?

My basic, underlying concern is that the Orioles become relevant again. That's it. Nothing else.

I want my hometown team to win. Period.

With the reality of our economic times and the reality of the economics of the AL East not changing anytime soon, we have to do something to get the Orioles in the public eye or else face total fan apathy.

Usually, winning changes everything, but with the pace of this FO, how can we win and at least get to a .500 record?

MSK