Does anyone have data on the likelihood of draft picks "making it" by round?

[Mashed Potatoes]

Now I'm not sure where people would draw the line on who has "made it" and who hasn't. Anyone who's had over 1000 ABs in the majors? Somebody who has started at least 3 seasons worth of games?

Regardless, I figure somebody has set the line somewhere and then studied over time the likelihood that a 1st round pick "makes it" vs. a 5th round pick.

Does anyone here know of studies done along these lines? Thanks.

[QBsILLEST1]

I dunno what correlation it would really have. In the 5th round for example, you have some guys who will be organizational, but then some others who are 1st round talents. The SS we drafted in round 5(I think) is worth more than a 5th round pick and has more talent than your average 5th rounder, so therefore, whatever % you come up with won't really be valid with him or other overslotters...

[Mashed Potatoes]

I dunno what correlation it would really have. In the 5th round for example, you have some guys who will be organizational, but then some others who are 1st round talents. The SS we drafted in round 5(I think) is worth more than a 5th round pick and has more talent than your average 5th rounder, so therefore, whatever % you come up with won't really be valid with him or other overslotters...

This is a good point and one I thought of. I don't think it's reason to completely dismiss the inquiry though. For example, you could simply comb through and eliminate all the egregious overslot picks. You could take those outliers and count them as 1st or 2nd round picks depending on how much they're paid compared to the average signing per round.

You could also break it down by money instead of by round.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not sure if this is still subscriber only, but BP had a very good series on the draft back in 2005. Here's the first article.

This first article didn't break things down specifically by round, but by picks or groups of picks. Basically a #1 pick has about a 90% chance of appearing in the majors, a #5 something like 75%, a #10 still north of 60%, a #30 is still about 50/50, a #70 pick is in the 35% range, and a #100 overall pick is just under 30%. Depending on the year a #100 pick is, what, somewhere in the 3rd round?

Further down in the article it goes into 15-year WAR by draft slot. The higher the pick the more valuable, and it drops off rapidly. By the time you're to pick #40 or so your average career value is under 5 wins over replacement. That probably breaks down at most picks to one guy who gives you 19 wins, a couple guys who gave you three, and a whole bunch of zeros.