Next Year's Top 3 College Arms

[QBsILLEST1]

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/7/14/1568824/dissecting-the-2011-top-collegiate

Very good look into the 3 headed monster of college arms coming into the 11 draft. There is a pretty good chance we end up with one of these guys because I think the Pirates overtake us for worst record in the league.

I am beginning to lean toward Cole now after heavily favoring Jungmann. I still like Jungmann a lot, but Cole's stuff is just on another level. Plus-plus FB, plus changeup and his slider is plus at times and projects to be a true plus pitch as well. That is just ridiculous. And he has a good frame to take a ML workload.

This article worried me about Purke being a 2 pitch pitcher. I didn't realize it was difficult to throw a changeup from Purke's arm slot, and still don't know if it is as big of a red flag as the author Pat Hickey makes it seem to be, but even with a good 3rd pitch, he doesn't compare to Cole's raw stuff.

Jungmann has a good combo of "now" stuff and projection, but why bank on projection when you have a pitcher on the board with elite "now" stuff. Best case scenario Jungmann adds velocity to his FB and improves his changeup to a surefire plus offering which it is close to. In that case, he has a similarly elite arsenal as Cole, but if Cole already has this nasty quality stuff, why would you risk it with Jungmann? Jungmann will probably have better command when all is said and done, but right now, who is to say he will develop that command as we hope for him to? Jungmann does have some great deception which Cole will never be able to match.....

[Mackus]

I'd really feel almost comfortable with us not signing Machado and ending up with the 1st/2nd and 4th (3A) picks in next year's draft. We'd have to pay through the nose to get the 4th pick since we'd have zero leverage, but adding one of those college arms and Rendon if we can would be amazing.

I'm not rooting against us signing Machado, but that would be one very bright silver lining, IMO.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'd really feel almost comfortable with us not signing Machado and ending up with the 1st/2nd and 4th (3A) picks in next year's draft. We'd have to pay through the nose to get the 4th pick since we'd have zero leverage, but adding one of those college arms and Rendon if we can would be amazing.

I'm not rooting against us signing Machado, but that would be one very bright silver lining, IMO.

But we wouldn't add one of those college arms is the problem. They will have WAY too much leverage. You are talking about spending basically atleast $12M between 2 picks. I don't see it as am impossible situation, but JJ would have to know that it is gonna take basically STrasburg money to sign 2 picks, but at the same time this would be HUGE to the O's for the immediete future because we'd have 2 premium prospects that will probably make it to the ML about the same time....

[Stotle]

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/7/14/1568824/dissecting-the-2011-top-collegiate

Very good look into the 3 headed monster of college arms coming into the 11 draft. There is a pretty good chance we end up with one of these guys because I think the Pirates overtake us for worst record in the league.

I am beginning to lean toward Cole now after heavily favoring Jungmann. I still like Jungmann a lot, but Cole's stuff is just on another level. Plus-plus FB, plus changeup and his slider is plus at times and projects to be a true plus pitch as well. That is just ridiculous. And he has a good frame to take a ML workload.

This article worried me about Purke being a 2 pitch pitcher. I didn't realize it was difficult to throw a changeup from Purke's arm slot, and still don't know if it is as big of a red flag as the author Pat Hickey makes it seem to be, but even with a good 3rd pitch, he doesn't compare to Cole's raw stuff.

Jungmann has a good combo of "now" stuff and projection, but why bank on projection when you have a pitcher on the board with elite "now" stuff. Best case scenario Jungmann adds velocity to his FB and improves his changeup to a surefire plus offering which it is close to. In that case, he has a similarly elite arsenal as Cole, but if Cole already has this nasty quality stuff, why would you risk it with Jungmann? Jungmann will probably have better command when all is said and done, but right now, who is to say he will develop that command as we hope for him to? Jungmann does have some great deception which Cole will never be able to match.....

Purke throws a very good Vulcan change -- good enough that some scouts were calling it his best pitch down in Houston in March.

[Mackus]

But we wouldn't add one of those college arms is the problem. They will have WAY too much leverage. You are talking about spending basically atleast $12M between 2 picks. I don't see it as am impossible situation, but JJ would have to know that it is gonna take basically STrasburg money to sign 2 picks, but at the same time this would be HUGE to the O's for the immediete future because we'd have 2 premium prospects that will probably make it to the ML about the same time....

Yeah, but we wouldn't be spending $5-6M this year on Machado. We'd, theoretically, have that money for next year.

I agree we'd lose leverage and end up paying more than we would if we didn't have the "sign him or lose him" provision on the compensation pick, but its not completely unrealistic to think we'd take the best college pitcher available with that comp pick and just accept that we'd have to pay more to sign the two guys.

There isn't a lot of difference between spending $4.5M on Machado and $6M on Rendon than on spending $6M on Cole and $6M on Rendon or something like that.

[H0smash]

Yeah, but we wouldn't be spending $5-6M this year on Machado. We'd, theoretically, have that money for next year.

I agree we'd lose leverage and end up paying more than we would if we didn't have the "sign him or lose him" provision on the compensation pick, but its not completely unrealistic to think we'd take the best college pitcher available with that comp pick and just accept that we'd have to pay more to sign the two guys.

There isn't a lot of difference between spending $4.5M on Machado and $6M on Rendon than on spending $6M on Cole and $6M on Rendon or something like that.

Yes. But we would probably take that money and spend it elsewhere (internationally or on overslots in the draft). I agree with you, though, it would be nice to grab Rendon and one of those College arms but we'll probably have to decide between one or the other.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, but we wouldn't be spending $5-6M this year on Machado. We'd, theoretically, have that money for next year.

I agree we'd lose leverage and end up paying more than we would if we didn't have the "sign him or lose him" provision on the compensation pick, but its not completely unrealistic to think we'd take the best college pitcher available with that comp pick and just accept that we'd have to pay more to sign the two guys.

There isn't a lot of difference between spending $4.5M on Machado and $6M on Rendon than on spending $6M on Cole and $6M on Rendon or something like that.

The problem is whoever we take with that second pick won't settle for just that, because faced with the chance of losing our pick, they will ask for the MOON and a condo in Aspen. Why settle asking for $6m, if you could have $8? You don't like it, sorry, you already made the pick, it's pay me or you wasted an entire year at the top of the draft.

[H0smash]

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/7/14/1568824/dissecting-the-2011-top-collegiate

Very good look into the 3 headed monster of college arms coming into the 11 draft. There is a pretty good chance we end up with one of these guys because I think the Pirates overtake us for worst record in the league.

I am beginning to lean toward Cole now after heavily favoring Jungmann. I still like Jungmann a lot, but Cole's stuff is just on another level. Plus-plus FB, plus changeup and his slider is plus at times and projects to be a true plus pitch as well. That is just ridiculous. And he has a good frame to take a ML workload.

This article worried me about Purke being a 2 pitch pitcher. I didn't realize it was difficult to throw a changeup from Purke's arm slot, and still don't know if it is as big of a red flag as the author Pat Hickey makes it seem to be, but even with a good 3rd pitch, he doesn't compare to Cole's raw stuff.

Jungmann has a good combo of "now" stuff and projection, but why bank on projection when you have a pitcher on the board with elite "now" stuff. Best case scenario Jungmann adds velocity to his FB and improves his changeup to a surefire plus offering which it is close to. In that case, he has a similarly elite arsenal as Cole, but if Cole already has this nasty quality stuff, why would you risk it with Jungmann? Jungmann will probably have better command when all is said and done, but right now, who is to say he will develop that command as we hope for him to? Jungmann does have some great deception which Cole will never be able to match.....

I would love to have Cole (assuming he doesn't get hurt and pitches well next year). He could be that guy who comes up to the majors quickly and pitches well instantly. A lot of people on this board have been clamoring for that, and I think that Cole would come with those expectations. If he didn't perform well right out of the gate, people would have legitimate reasons to be disappointed.

[H0smash]

The problem is whoever we take with that second pick won't settle for just that, because faced with the chance of losing our pick, they will ask for the MOON and a condo in Aspen. Why settle asking for $6m, if you could have $8? You don't like it, sorry, you already made the pick, it's pay me or you wasted an entire year at the top of the draft.

True. But isn't there talk about having strict slots in the draft with the next collective bargaining agreement? When would that take place? If it would affect the draft in '12, then the player would have less leverage because he might not even be able to get the $6m we would be offering him.

[allstar1579]

True. But isn't there talk about having strict slots in the draft with the next collective bargaining agreement? When would that take place? If it would affect the draft in '12, then the player would have less leverage because he might not even be able to get the $6m we would be offering him.

It's too late for this coming season. That is why Harper took the path he did for the draft, in case they went to a hard slot system before this draft year. I think I read a while back in order to pass it for this upcoming year it had to be voted on this past winter meetings, likewise this winter for '12.

I personally think it will come to this, I know for a fact a lot of upper office ML people are really not happy the way the draft is going, and don't want it to get to the problem the NFL has, so they are really pushing for a hard slot in the next agreement. Their argument for the Players Assoc. was that less money for these rookies means more money for the established guys, so I think in the end you see it pass. We'll see. Either way, it doesn't help us this next year, because like you said with the impact one draft and signing has on the following year now, it can't be decided after one draft impacting the next.

[Mackus]

The problem is whoever we take with that second pick won't settle for just that, because faced with the chance of losing our pick, they will ask for the MOON and a condo in Aspen. Why settle asking for $6m, if you could have $8? You don't like it, sorry, you already made the pick, it's pay me or you wasted an entire year at the top of the draft.

It cuts both ways though, the player would lose another year, too.

I can't see a player turning down a deal he would take from us if we drafted him with a normal pick just because we would lose the pick if he doesn't sign.

Make an offer that satisfies the player and he'll sign. I agree that it'll probably take a bit more because of the added pressure of losing the pick if we don't sign him, but I don't think its so awful of a negotiating stance that you are obligated to take a guy you reach a pre-draft deal with to sign for slot or below.

[mallison]

We should also make sure that beginning his professional career is something that Cole wants to do... He didn't even let the Yankees offer him a contract after they spent their 1st round pick on him in 2008.

Regardless of where he's picked, 1st or 28th, the kid still has to want to leave UCLA.

Just another FYI, keep in mind that the Yankees have always been his favorite team...

I'll just say, we don't seem to be the luckiest team on earth, let's not draft the kid only for him to tell us, "look, I told you I didn't want to sign." Just a thought.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Purke throws a very good Vulcan change -- good enough that some scouts were calling it his best pitch down in Houston in March.

I'm wondering whether this pitch is unusually tough on the arm. I grimace to think about even gripping a baseball this way, much less throwing it hard.

[allstar1579]

It cuts both ways though, the player would lose another year, too.

I can't see a player turning down a deal he would take from us if we drafted him with a normal pick just because we would lose the pick if he doesn't sign.

Make an offer that satisfies the player and he'll sign. I agree that it'll probably take a bit more because of the added pressure of losing the pick if we don't sign him, but I don't think its so awful of a negotiating stance that you are obligated to take a guy you reach a pre-draft deal with to sign for slot or below.

Yeah but those players that might lose the year it's not going to hurt, 2 of them are eligible sophmores and I think Jungmann is a Junior. It is a little risk sure, but to almost double what they should be getting I'd be willing to bet Boras would do it in a heartbeat.

I agree that you shouldn't HAVE to have a super overslot agreement in place with a lesser guy to use that pick, but that is the risk you run. A guy more likely than not if Boras is involved, will give you a price (say $6m) at #4, and then once you have spent that pick and he could hold you hostage, will change things around. JD Drew comes to mind, not to mention that debacle a few years back with the loopholes becoming FA he exploited. For a team in as bad as shape as we are, we really can't take the gamble that we could lose the pick altogether.

(For the record, I like the talent at #4 next year more than Machado, so it's not that I'm just against the idea)

[Arthur_Bryant]

We should also make sure that beginning his professional career is something that Cole wants to do... He didn't even let the Yankees offer him a contract after they spent their 1st round pick on him in 2008.

Regardless of where he's picked, 1st or 28th, the kid still has to want to leave UCLA.

Just another FYI, keep in mind that the Yankees have always been his favorite team...

I'll just say, we don't seem to be the luckiest team on earth, let's not draft the kid only for him to tell us, "look, I told you I didn't want to sign." Just a thought.

I don't think even the O's are dumb enough to use a Top Five pick without having serious conversations with the players they have in mind.