Next Year's Top 3 College Arms

[allstar1579]

We should also make sure that beginning his professional career is something that Cole wants to do... He didn't even let the Yankees offer him a contract after they spent their 1st round pick on him in 2008.

Regardless of where he's picked, 1st or 28th, the kid still has to want to leave UCLA.

Just another FYI, keep in mind that the Yankees have always been his favorite team...

I'll just say, we don't seem to be the luckiest team on earth, let's not draft the kid only for him to tell us, "look, I told you I didn't want to sign." Just a thought.

Well, devil's advocate and all, I'm willing to bet if Cole goes at say #3 that year he signs. The price difference from the top of the first to the bottom is pretty stark for these really highly touted kids. If you are good enough for the first round out of HS, the odds are with you that you're going to get better in college and be looking top 10.

[Stotle]

I'm wondering whether this pitch is unusually tough on the arm. I grimace to think about even gripping a baseball this way, much less throwing it hard.

Not sure -- it would have to be a forearm/elbow issue based on grip, but I haven't felt strain throwing it (granted, I'm not repeatedly throwing it 83 mph ).

[H0smash]

It's too late for this coming season. That is why Harper took the path he did for the draft, in case they went to a hard slot system before this draft year. I think I read a while back in order to pass it for this upcoming year it had to be voted on this past winter meetings, likewise this winter for '12.

I personally think it will come to this, I know for a fact a lot of upper office ML people are really not happy the way the draft is going, and don't want it to get to the problem the NFL has, so they are really pushing for a hard slot in the next agreement. Their argument for the Players Assoc. was that less money for these rookies means more money for the established guys, so I think in the end you see it pass. We'll see. Either way, it doesn't help us this next year, because like you said with the impact one draft and signing has on the following year now, it can't be decided after one draft impacting the next.

Haha you confused me a little here. So if this winter they voted and agreed to a hardslot system (similar to the NBA right?), then it would come into effect in the '12 draft not the '11 draft? That would go right into my line of thinking that the player would have less leverage since they probably will not be able to get as much money the next year.

[allstar1579]

Haha you confused me a little here. So if this winter they voted and agreed to a hardslot system (similar to the NBA right?), then it would come into effect in the '12 draft not the '11 draft? That would go right into my line of thinking that the player would have less leverage since they probably will not be able to get as much money the next year.

You're forgetting that with that system, the compensation picks will go away. So however they work out that kink, but there's a chance that you'd get next year with no hard slot, but no compensation if you don't sign someone.

And if next year's pick IS our compensation pick that player still has the advantage because he will still get drafted and get money in whatever slot the following year, but the team would lose out altogether because they'd lose that pick and get NO player. So while it might cost the player a little bit of money, the team has a bigger risk.

[H0smash]

You're forgetting that with that system, the compensation picks will go away. So however they work out that kink, but there's a chance that you'd get next year with no hard slot, but no compensation if you don't sign someone.

And if next year's pick IS our compensation pick that player still has the advantage because he will still get drafted and get money in whatever slot the following year, but the team would lose out altogether because they'd lose that pick and get NO player. So while it might cost the player a little bit of money, the team has a bigger risk.

Yeah, but at the same time, the player loses money as well as service time.

The player could sign say next year at #4 for $6-7m, and would be much closer to the Majors/being a FA, whereas we lose a draft pick.

I feel like if we were offering a fair amount ($6-8m range) for Cole or Jungmann, it would be pretty shortsighted on their part to not accept the deal. These players should remember, the older you are when you become an FA, the shorter your deal (and less money) you will likely get.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, but at the same time, the player loses money as well as service time.

The player could sign say next year at #4 for $6-7m, and would be much closer to the Majors/being a FA, whereas we lose a draft pick.

I feel like if we were offering a fair amount ($6-8m range) for Cole or Jungmann, it would be pretty shortsighted on their part to not accept the deal. These players should remember, the older you are when you become an FA, the shorter your deal (and less money) you will likely get.

Agree that makes sense in theory, you just see it go the other way sometimes anyway. And remember their service time is being controlled by the club, signing early doesn't nec. mean they will hit FA sooner, that is going to be up to the club, and most of them are manipulating that now a days anyway, so I don't think that will control their thinking too much. Most of them tend to think only of the short term and want that payday up front, and then don't think about money again for a few years.

You have valid points, no doubt, but I don't see someone like Boras saying oh, well lets get you signed quickly so you can get some time in, move through the system fast and be a FA sooner. They try to maximize every pay day and seeing that this could be the last big draft pick pay day, I expect them all to cash in on it.

[H0smash]

Agree that makes sense in theory, you just see it go the other way sometimes anyway. And remember their service time is being controlled by the club, signing early doesn't nec. mean they will hit FA sooner, that is going to be up to the club, and most of them are manipulating that now a days anyway, so I don't think that will control their thinking too much. Most of them tend to think only of the short term and want that payday up front, and then don't think about money again for a few years.

You have valid points, no doubt, but I don't see someone like Boras saying oh, well lets get you signed quickly so you can get some time in, move through the system fast and be a FA sooner. They try to maximize every pay day and seeing that this could be the last big draft pick pay day, I expect them all to cash in on it.

You're right. In practice this is the way these situations tend to play out. If we got the #1 pick, though, I'd be willing to grab Rendon and Cole/Jungmann/Purke (by not signing Machado) and I'd pay the player close to what they wanted, but I doubt Angelos would do that.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm wondering whether this pitch is unusually tough on the arm. I grimace to think about even gripping a baseball this way, much less throwing it hard.

Its probably more harmful on the arm than a normal changeup, but, maybe its just me, but throwing the vulcan change doesn't feel as straining on the elbow as a splitter does, but thats just me...And good point by the way, never really thought about it much....

[allstar1579]

Its probably more harmful on the arm than a normal changeup, but, maybe its just me, but throwing the vulcan change doesn't feel as straining on the elbow as a splitter does, but thats just me...And good point by the way, never really thought about it much....

Got me...I was more of a student of Jamie Moyer's circle change.

[QBsILLEST1]

Got me...I was more of a student of Jamie Moyer's circle change.

Me too, I just got back into pitching off the mound in my backyard. The circle change is my favorite pitch to throw because in HS I never could throw it right, I'd always bury it in the dirt 10 feet short, but after tinkering around with it, I came up with a good one....

There are so many ways to adjust your grip on that pitch to command it better, its amazing.....

[BrunoCherrytown]

Yes. But we would probably take that money and spend it elsewhere (internationally or on overslots in the draft).

This is far from guaranteed. I seem to remember $140 million in cash that could be spent elsewhere and when Sano came around last year...well...he was still too expensive. So was Chapman...etc. Etc.

We should be top 3 in draft spending each year...no excuses.

[mikezpen]

If we don't sign Machado because they won't spend the money, what makes anybody think we'll sign TWO high picks next year?

[Mackus]

If we don't sign Machado because they won't spend the money, what makes anybody think we'll sign TWO high picks next year?

Because perhaps they'll believe that the two guys they sign next year are both worth big money, but that Machado is only worth about $4M and not the $8M he's asking for, or something like that.

I'd be surprised if they drafted two expensive guys next year if we don't sign Machado. I think they'd go the pre-draft deal route and reach an agreement with someone who would probably go about 10-15 and take them with the #3A pick and give them slot or slightly less money, while taking Rendon or one of the big arms #1 overall and giving them huge money. I'd really hope we'd give huge money to both Rendon and one of the arms, but unfortunately I don't think that's likely. The guy picked with the #3A pick would have a lot of leverage. Although we could still offer them a ton of money that's really tough to turn down without getting into crazy Strasburg or Bryce territory.

[QBsILLEST1]

If we don't sign Machado because they won't spend the money, what makes anybody think we'll sign TWO high picks next year?

Why would we? I am only all for taking HS guys when the upside is worth it. With guys like Rendon and Cole/Jungmann/Purke who have premium upside(all star 3B or TOR SP), it doesn't make sense to go with the HS guy. You'd be lucky if your HS pick ended up being as good as any of the above mentioned college guys.

This is why they say from year to year the draft is different. In 09 and 10, other than Strasburg and Harper, the HS guy's upside was worth more to invest your money on than the college guys IMO. this last draft, your best college arm was Ranaudo or Harvey depending on who you ask. But, Taillon already had raw stuff that was probably better than any of the college guys(he did need refinement of course). So, it made most sense to spend a top pick on him because there is a good chance barring injury that he will be a better ML pitcher.....

[Hutman]

For those of you who are ESPN Insider Members MLB Draft has done write ups on Pruke and Cole so far. I think Jungman and Grey are next.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draft&id=5394585

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draft&id=5413405