O's not offering Koji arbitration

[Dipper9]

Risking the loss of proven talent in order to save some money is not a path to success in the AL East.

When experienced foreign players come on the market, we are inevitably told that the O's will sit out the bidding because the risk is too great that they will not pan out. But when a couple of million $$ is at stake, all of a sudden AM turns into Mr. Brinkmanship, willing to gamble on the loss of one of his most effective relievers.

I'm getting sick of this act.

This should be in all of our signature lines, as it can be used at the end of nearly EVERY discussion surrounding moves (or lack there-of) that MacPhail is making.

[Woody Held]

Right, I could cancel my family's health insurance for the coming year and maybe none of us will get sick. But even so, that would be a terrible decision. Same thing with Koji.

Not quite. If you decide that a company that was charging you 4 times what your insurance was worth and then you cancelled It would be the same. Then again you could also go to another insurance company.

Also Koji has only been played in 55 of the 324 games he has been an Oriole, so it like that insurance you paid for was only good for about a month and a half anyway

[FarmSystem]

Risking the loss of proven talent in order to save some money is not a path to success in the AL East.

When experienced foreign players come on the market, we are inevitably told that the O's will sit out the bidding because the risk is too great that they will not pan out. But when a couple of million $$ is at stake, all of a sudden AM turns into Mr. Brinkmanship, willing to gamble on the loss of one of his most effective relievers.

I'm getting sick of this act.

I'm personally getting tired of the fans being the only ones pulling their weight. Its getting to the point where Andy looks like he's content backing into retirement and getting paid to keep costs down for Angelos while giving the appearance of trying to win.

[Arthur_Bryant]

99% sure Vazquez was a type B FA.

Vazquez was a Type B.

The MLBTR arb tracker is a one-stop reference.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not quite. If you decide that a company that was charging you 4 times what your insurance was worth and then you cancelled It would be the same. Then again you could also go to another insurance company.

Yea, but I think it's more like the O's just saw a commerical that says Geico can save them $300 on their insurance, they said "dude, that rocks", canceled their current insurance, then went about figuring out if the Geico claims actually hold any water.

[Stotle]

Risking the loss of proven talent in order to save some money is not a path to success in the AL East.

When experienced foreign players come on the market, we are inevitably told that the O's will sit out the bidding because the risk is too great that they will not pan out. But when a couple of million $$ is at stake, all of a sudden AM turns into Mr. Brinkmanship, willing to gamble on the loss of one of his most effective relievers.

I'm getting sick of this act.

I think the analysis will ultimately come down to:

1. Who Koji signs with, and for what amount

2. Who BAL brings in, and for what amount, if Koji leaves

I don't have an issue with letting Koji walk if he refused to play ball declining arb AND you are comfortable with another relief arm.

But I'd need more details to make that distinction. On the surface, I think this looks like a poor move for BAL (maybe w/r/t Millwood, too) but I've been convinced to see how it plays out before getting fired-up.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think the analysis will ultimately come down to:

1. Who Koji signs with, and for what amount

2. Who BAL brings in, and for what amount, if Koji leaves

I don't have an issue with letting Koji walk if he refused to play ball declining arb AND you are comfortable with another relief arm.

But I'd need more details to make that distinction. On the surface, I think this looks like a poor move for BAL (maybe w/r/t Millwood, too) but I've been convinced to see how it plays out before getting fired-up.

Part of the difficulty with Koji is that his value is relatively tough to pin down. He is in his mid-30s, he has just two seasons in MLB, he has often been injured during those two years, yet he has been good to dominant when healthy.

Where are the comps for that?

But even if we find out that AM calculated correctly, I still disagree with the decision to play that game. If Koji had been with another team these past two years, he is someone I would want the O's to make a run at this winter, take a little risk on his upside. But they didn't have to make a run at him. They had him, in hand. All they had to do was offer him arbitration.

The O's need good players more than they need to save a couple of million $$. They have been saving tens of millions for the past two seasons with an inordinate number of pre-arb players--not that I'm complaining. But a talent-poor team should not be gambling with talent in hand. They should be risking money, not talent.

[Stotle]

Part of the difficulty with Koji is that his value is relatively tough to pin down. He is in his mid-30s, he has just two seasons in MLB, he has often been injured during those two years, yet he has been good to dominant when healthy.

Where are the comps for that?

But even if we find out that AM calculated correctly, I still disagree with the decision to play that game. If Koji had been with another team these past two years, he is someone I would want the O's to make a run at this winter, take a little risk on his upside. But they didn't have to make a run at him. They had him, in hand. All they had to do was offer him arbitration.

The O's need good players more than they need to save a couple of million $$. They have been saving tens of millions for the past two seasons with an inordinate number of pre-arb players--not that I'm complaining. But a talent-poor team should not be gambling with talent in hand. They should be risking money, not talent.

I don't disagree with the spirit of this post -- but I also can't discount the possibility that BAL doesn't view Koji as a special relief arm. I want to see how it shakes out.

My statement is based on the assumption that 1) people are correct in stating the BAL knew with almost certainty that Koji was accepting, and 2) Koji was a virtual lock to make a significant amount more in arb than on the market.

The next two months will help give some idea if 2 is true, though we still won't REALLY know. I have no way to prove or disprove 1, so I just shrug at it.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I don't disagree with the spirit of this post -- but I also can't discount the possibility that BAL doesn't view Koji as a special relief arm. I want to see how it shakes out.

My statement is based on the assumption that 1) people are correct in stating the BAL knew with almost certainty that Koji was accepting, and 2) Koji was a virtual lock to make a significant amount more in arb than on the market.

The next two months will help give some idea if 2 is true, though we still won't REALLY know. I have no way to prove or disprove 1, so I just shrug at it.

I guess it's possible that Pieper told AM that Koji would accept, which--if true--would take the draft choice out of the calculation.

But even if true, I question the decision. I still hold that a team in the O's position needs to be more concerned with collecting talent than with insisting on the last bit of value out of every transaction. It is possible for a team to value itself out of any chance to succeed. We may be watching it happen right before our eyes.

In poker terms, the O's are a percentage player sitting with a short stack at a no-limit table with several players who are always ready to play a decisive hand. In that scenario, we don't know who will end up the winner, but we can almost guarantee that it won't be the percentage player.

[hoosiers]

The O's need good players more than they need to save a couple of million $$. They have been saving tens of millions for the past two seasons with an inordinate number of pre-arb players--not that I'm complaining. But a talent-poor team should not be gambling with talent in hand. They should be risking money, not talent.

We should see how this plays out. People (not specifically calling out anyone - especially AB) use the term "risk" here fairly generically.

IMO, we don't have $Ms in salary to "waste", but I'm sure our FO considered whether it was worth it to "risk" - based on educated assumptions on whether arbitration would have been accepted and what these two players would have received in arbitration v free agency.

I am more convinced that Koji would have accepted arbitration and that his primary intention is to remain in Baltimore than I was last week. I am more disappointed that we could not convince Millwood and his agent to allow us to offer arbitration with the understanding they would decline. As it is, let's see what Milly signs for as he could receive anything from $4M to $7M IMO.

[LookitsPuck]

I wish MacPhail would have a Q&A on a monthly basis.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I wish MacPhail would have a Q&A on a monthly basis.

He probably does.

With Peter Angelos.

[Sports Guy]

33 of 35 FAs offered arbitration turned down the arb offer.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/what-we-learned-this-weeks-arbitration-decisions.html

[brotherlo38]

I guess it's possible that Pieper told AM that Koji would accept, which--if true--would take the draft choice out of the calculation.

But even if true, I question the decision. I still hold that a team in the O's position needs to be more concerned with collecting talent than with insisting on the last bit of value out of every transaction. It is possible for a team to value itself out of any chance to succeed. We may be watching it happen right before our eyes.

In poker terms, the O's are a percentage player sitting with a short stack at a no-limit table with several players who are always ready to play a decisive hand. In that scenario, we don't know who will end up the winner, but we can almost guarantee that it won't be the percentage player.

Wow...didn't realize no one ever linked this.

Let’s tackle the Uehara decision first. It should, at least, be noted that Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail tried to enter a gentleman’s agreement with Mark Pieper, Uehara’s agent, where the reliever would have turned down arbitration if it was offered. That way, the Orioles would have gotten a supplemental pick after the first round of the 2011 draft had Uehara signed elsewhere.

Trevor Hoffman and Javier Vazquez entered in such an agreement with their 2010 clubs. Pieper and Uehara, however, weren’t interested, and the reason is obvious. Uehara stands to make more money in 2011 had he accepted arbitration rather than signed a free-agent deal.

[Stotle]

Wow...didn't realize no one ever linked this.

1. There are ways to try and influence Koji into not accepting, including telling him that the team sees him in a diminished role and he is better off entering FA now than he would be coming off a year as a 6th/7th inning guy.

2. Ultimately, it's easier to work out these agreements at the time you sign the player, because you can toss incentives at them for accepting (an extra $500K, or whatever, in to handshake promise to decline arb if the team decides to offer it).