O's not offering Koji arbitration

[Stotle]

Yes, some are defending the move, but it's obviously a minority. People try to paint this board as blindly following AM when it's obvious that the majority is against him, and a high percentage of the remaining posters have him on the hot seat this offseason.

I don't know if this is directed at me or why. I was just saying I wasn't surprised to see people defending AM. I didn't say a majority would defend AM. If I did, please point it out and I'll happily retract it and apologize...

[mweb]

Very poor decision imo.

[weams]

I don't defend the decision, I just don't care that much. Andy is very much on the hotseat in my opinion, but that doesn't mean I have to bash every little thing like this. Especially when I'm not privvy to all the facts. When it seems like there's absolutely no reason for Andy to not offer arbitration, there's bound to be a reason. He doesn't just forget to do it. And money is not an issue.

Don't be so sure.

[hoosiers]

Our FO has never been good at this entire arbitration process. I've started multiple threads with this criticism the past few years and our FO continues to lay an egg here.

We are not good at targeting, acquiring and then offering arbitration to talent capable of yielding draft picks. The whole arb process is about identifying cheap talent capable of yielding future compensatory picks and then LETTING THOSE PLAYERS LEAVE. Our FOs over the years have been shown too much loyalty to producing players instead of recycling them.

Even when we have or identify the talent, we botch the possibility of obtaining picks by signing guys to extensions instead of letting them walk or trading them away or not offering arbitration. We made this mistake with Mora (after his first bargain contract), Zaun, Hawkins and several others while other organizations convert mediocre players like Randy Choate, Alex Gonzalez and others into draft picks. It's comical how poor our FO is at this game relative to other organizations.

Even if the FO has a valid explanation for some of the moves (perhaps even for Koji), at the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding - other organizations continually acquire and then let leave talent that results in substantial additional compensatory picks WITHOUT APPEARING TO BE STUCK WITH OVERPAY CONTRACTS THROUGH THE ARBITRATION PROCESS.

Separately, I do not believe a compensatory pick is worth the $3M to $4M that has been speculated on this board - at least to the Os. I assume our FO has done appropriate research on the value of these picks and we seem to value them at much, much less.

The decision to not offer Koji appears to be a poor one at first glance. We'll see what Koji receives on the free market. I'm not sure what he would make in arbitration or what our FO discussed offering him. The only way this decision would work out well for our FO would be if Koji and his agent have misjudged the market and he ends up signing for substantially less than his perceived arbitration value.

[Stotle]

You didn't say a majority. No apology necesary. Would you agree that it's a small minority that are defending the move?

I honestly haven't read the whole thread, but trust your take or the take of anyone who has read the full universe of responses.

[eddie83]

I'm not sure how you can say this. It is THE issue. I'm sure AM would be happy to have Uehara back at a lower contract with incentives. He was afraid of getting stuck with Uehara accepting arbitration and getting 5M or whatever he would have gotten.

What's Koji asking for?? It sure is more than $5 million. The minute the Orioles offer Koji abitration the less likely he signs elsewhere. It is pretty evident they think teams aren't going to go higher than what he makes now.

[Remember The Alomar]

Not trying to defend AM, because this is a complete joke, but is there a chance this is all PA? Perhaps he's told AM "when in doubt, never risk arbitration". Either way this whole situation is a complete joke.

We need a Russian billionaire.

[Sports Guy]

It's all part of the same shortcoming on the amateur acquisition side. People give justifications for lagging behind internationally. People give justifications for targeting certain groups of draft overslotters over the "mainstream" tough signs. People give justifications for not offering arbitration.

Any of these issues can be rationalized on their own, but when you put everything together you realize that not only is BAL behind the rest of the division, they are not close to getting out in front in any area of amateur acquisition.

Time will tell if Toronto's pumping of money into scouting, international signing and the draft (including acquiring extra picks) will pay off. Maybe it ends up a lot of empty cash. But it is at least an attempt to gain some sort of competitive advantage.

BAL has convinced its hardcore fan base that building financial flexibility and a strong young core of pitching is the best way to compete. I agree with that. But what is the plan for transitioning to a competitive team? What is the plan for not only growing a young stable of arms but for replenishing the minor league system?

Some posters lamented that BAL can't afford to enter into discussions regarding trading for one of the best young talents in baseball (who is available, according to reports) because there isn't enough depth in the system. BAL hasn't spent on the ML team and has been trimming the fat throughout the organization for the past three years. Why is the system thin again? Because BAL doesn't do the little things, or the big things, when it comes to signing amateur talent.

Avoid high cost international signees. Avoid arbitration that MIGHT result in a year of poor "value". Avoid avoid avoid....

Apologies for the rant -- I accept that parts of my post may be an overreaction.

How is telling the truth an overreaction?

This is a great post..just wish I could rep you.

They should easily be able to make a deal with Upton and not have it effect them all that much..similar to Tampa and Boston.

This team is a joke.

I made a thread months ago about how they have to totally re-do the organization and I see no reason to think that still isn't the case.

[Stotle]

I agree. The worst part of this non-move is that AM isn't stupid so he must be doing this to avoid the possibility of overpaying for Koji by 2-3 million. Good Lord that is shortsighted. If he is truly on that tight of a budget OR is truly that unable to evaluate risk/reward vs payroll limitations (2-3 mil shouldn't be a problem with our good contract status overall), I'm very very concerned.

I already wrote a long post in the other Koji thread so I won't re-do it here. Suffice it to say that I agree with you, and the "risk" of an extra $2-3 million is so insignificant that it's hard to believe a GM would use it as a reason not to offer arb. The only reasonable explanations I've seen mentioned that have merit are: 1) a deal is done, and 2) Koji has serious medical issues -- enough that another team is not likely to sign him upon getting the results of the physical.

[Stotle]

I didn't consider the option that Koji's medical stuff looks so bad that nobody would sign him. He finished so well last year that it would be hard to imagine that. But I guess it could be true. If that were true, I could understand that AM knows he has no chance to "lose" a potential pick. I'm very skeptical though. It will be interesting to see what else turns up here.

Yeah, I don't know that the scenario is likely, but it's one of the few scenarios that would adequately explain this. Otherwise, you're left with

Slim chance for Atkins production turnaround from obvious 3 year decline

is more valuable than

slightly overpaying a good relief pitcher OR supplemental draft pick

The move in a vacuum is enough of a headscratcher. When you actually start to try and figure out when the organization cares about $3 million dollars and when they have no issue flushing it down the toilet -- that's when you realize there's something rotten in the state of Birdland.

[Sports Guy]

Just to discuss the rest of the division real quick:

Boston: They will get 2 picks for Vmart and 2 for Beltre if he leaves. They also offered arbitration to Felipe Lopez..this was talked about on here. See what happens there.

Yanks: Only Vazquez..They will get a pick for him.

Toronto: They already have one from John Buck..Its not know who else they will offer arb at this time, although you know Olivo will be offered as well.

Toronto has a chance at obtaining 6 additional picks, including a few first rounders.

[lint06]

Yes, some are defending the move, but it's obviously a minority. People try to paint this board as blindly following AM when it's obvious that the majority is against him, and a high percentage of the remaining posters have him on the hot seat this offseason.

And that is perfectly acceptable. I am willing to give AM the length of his contract to prove he is the right man for the job. We'll see how this turns out at the end of the season.

[DuffMan]

So AM is willing to give VMART 48 million dollars, but is afraid of spending a few more million on Koji? This is absurd. Not much else to say that hasn't been said but terrible move by MacPhail.

[DrungoHazewood]

The move in a vacuum is enough of a headscratcher. When you actually start to try and figure out when the organization cares about $3 million dollars and when they have no issue flushing it down the toilet -- that's when you realize there's something rotten in the state of Birdland.

I just don't understand the (at least perceived) penny-wise, pound-foolish tack this organization takes time after time. They'll sign established mediocrities every single offseason for $millions, yet be completely unwilling to risk a few $million on someone like Koji/a draft pick with real upside.

My take is that Angelos is terrified of the risk of getting zero production/value out of someone, and that he'd much rather acquire someone with far less upside if they have less chance of being an embarrassment.

The last 15 years has been just full of acquisitions that scream out "let's see if we can avoid getting laughed at, if just barely".

[DrungoHazewood]

I didn't consider the option that Koji's medical stuff looks so bad that nobody would sign him. He finished so well last year that it would be hard to imagine that. But I guess it could be true. If that were true, I could understand that AM knows he has no chance to "lose" a potential pick. I'm very skeptical though. It will be interesting to see what else turns up here.

I find it hard to believe that a guy with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 11.0 (!) is on the verge of complete physical collapse. Although I guess it's not completely implausible...