First base in 2012 and beyond

[JTrea81]

And you grossly underestimate them. Remember, all players were young with potential at some point. The difference between you and other people is you want to spend oodles of other peoples money and trade away the future. That is simply, a terrible, terrible plan.

No the difference between me and other people is I want this team to make a major commitment and investment in the core they have so they can actually win and be a consistent contender and playoff team.

Spending money and trading prospects and non-core players is the only realistic way that is going to happen.

Other people want to depend on luck and hope or the "lightning in a bottle," like the Giants had and sure we can keep signing stopgaps and hope we get lucky and go to the playoffs 1 year out of 5 if we can catch lightning in a bottle with an aging player ot two and our prospects have a light switch suddenly click on, but that isn't good enough IMO. We need to be a consistent contender, and we aren't going to be that unless we acquire the talent to do so. We need constant production from the positions in our lineup that are supposed to produce it. And to have that, this team has to surround and augment the core with players that will do just that.

But until the team decides to invest in the core, they likely will continue to watch it flounder because it won't have enough support to get the job done.

[tilgaham]

That's why I took a 2 month break. But they sucked me right back in, lol.

My statement was not directed at you.

[Satyr3206]

No the difference between me and other people is I want this team to make a major commitment and investment in the core they have so they can actually win and be a consistent contender and playoff team.

Spending money and trading prospects and non-core players is the only realistic way that is going to happen.

Other people want to depend on luck and hope or the "lightning in a bottle," like the Giants had and sure we can keep signing stopgaps and hope we get lucky and go to the playoffs 1 year out of 5 if we can catch lightning in a bottle with an aging player ot two and our prospects have a light switch suddenly click on, but that isn't good enough IMO. We need to be a consistent contender, and we aren't going to be that unless we acquire the talent to do so. We need constant production from the positions in our lineup that are supposed to produce it. And to have that, this team has to surround and augment the core with players that will do just that.

But until the team decides to invest in the core, they likely will continue to watch it flounder because it won't have enough support to get the job done.

Please look at your last post. You say you want the Orioles to be a consistent contender. Yet you advocate trading prospects? You do realize there is only 1 team in baseball that has been successful with that formula, right?

Do you also realize it takes years to build a competent organization?

Throwing money at first base, third base, or any problem is a sure way to go broke. You can ask many former players and executives about that.

Sorry if I derailed the thread.

[JTrea81]

Think of how much you could accomplish if you took the time you spend obsessing about things that ultimately are of little importance on this website and used it to do something constructive.

:slytf:

So winning doesn't matter then?

I obsess about doing what it takes to actually win games because I want this team to win desperately and on a consistent basis.

And right now, this team needs to fix first base and stop putting in aging stopgap after aging stopgap and hoping they can get that player to buck the aging trend and overachieve. Huff is the only one to do it (but he technically was a DH as Millar played 1B primarily that year) and he only did it once.

[JTrea81]

Please look at your last post. You say you want the Orioles to be a consistent contender. Yet you advocate trading prospects? You do realize there is only 1 team in baseball that has been successful with that formula, right?

Do you also realize it takes years to build a competent organization?

Throwing money at first base, third base, or any problem is a sure way to go broke. You can ask many former players and executives about that.

Sorry if I derailed the thread.

The Boston Red Sox have been very successful at that and they are the franchise we should model. The Red Sox brought in established talent upfront through trades and free agency to complement the core of players they already had and competed with it, and then developed prospects to replace that talent in the meantime so they could stay competitive.

And you say that it takes years, but if that's the case we need to trade Markakis and Roberts now because their contracts expire in 2013 and 2014 respectively. The clock is ticking on the time that we can compete with this core.

And we have to throw money at those positions or trade for solutions because we do not have the talent internally right now and it will take several years to get it. This team is going to have to suck it up and boost the payroll while it is developing those cheaper internal options if it truly wants to acquire the talent to win.

Otherwise this is going to be a perennial 82-85 win team aka the Toronto Blue Jays where they sit in also ran status unless they can catch lightning in a bottle which the Jays haven't yet...

[tilgaham]

So winning doesn't matter then?

I obsess about doing what it takes to actually win games because I want this team to win desperately and on a consistent basis.

And right now, this team needs to fix first base and stop putting in aging stopgap after aging stopgap and hoping they can get that player to buck the aging trend and overachieve. Huff is the only one to do it (but he technically was a DH as Millar played 1B primarily that year) and he only did it once.

In the context of the game, yes winning matters. If you so desperately want the Baltimore Orioles to win ballgames and become a respectable franchise, why don't you apply for a job with them, move to Baltimore, and do something productive rather than posting diatribe after diatribe online. This is not the right outlet for your energies. Ultimately, we have no say in what goes on in the warehouse. What you do here on a daily basis is vent. We all want the Orioles to win, but it gets difficult listening to you stand on your soapbox. We agree with your heart, if not your methods. Please stop ramming them down our throats with such frequency.

As a point of clarification--this isn't me asking you to leave the board, or even change your mind. You have a right to your opinion, just as I have a right to mine (and we even agree sometimes). Rather, it is a plea that you would kindly stop creating the same thread every single day, and stop derailing normal conversational threads to your agenda (that you happen to be passionate about). I know it's the offseason, and there isn't much to speak of going on...but sometimes a little silence is better than a lot of noise.

[JTrea81]

In the context of the game, yes winning matters. If you so desperately want the Baltimore Orioles to win ballgames and become a respectable franchise, why don't you apply for a job with them, move to Baltimore, and do something productive rather than posting diatribe after diatribe online. This is not the right outlet for your energies. Ultimately, we have no say in what goes on in the warehouse. What you do here on a daily basis is vent. We all want the Orioles to win, but it gets difficult listening to you stand on your soapbox. We agree with your heart, if not your methods. Please stop ramming them down our throats with such frequency.

As a point of clarification--this isn't me asking you to leave the board, or even change your mind. You have a right to your opinion, just as I have a right to mine (and we even agree sometimes). Rather, it is a plea that you would kindly stop creating the same thread every single day, and stop derailing normal conversational threads to your agenda (that you happen to be passionate about). I know it's the offseason, and there isn't much to speak of going on...but sometimes a little silence is better than a lot of noise.

Well right now the sentiment on this board right now is that we need to be more of a lightning in bottle team, and will rely on players overachieving than what it will actually take to win games in this division.

People see the Giants or Rays and think we can be that team, but this team just is too dissimilar to have those same strategies work.

And it feels like paddling upstream sometimes, as I feel I'm the only one who counters this overwhelming argument that improvement by itself is acceptable over actually doing what it will take to win. The apathy just sickens me, that people are willing to accept this team not doing what it will take to win as long as they just put a better product out on the field.

Better isn't good enough IMO. This team has to be one of the best in baseball and it has to get there soon to maxmize the potential of the core as they are all nearing if not at their peak. The next few years are the best chance this team has to reach the playoffs and WS with this group of players. We've waited and waited, and can't wait any longer. They have to strike.

[Capn Vivi]

You've got to look at where your holes are long term right now. And they are at 1B, 3B, LF and SS.

The Orioles have questions marks in CF, RF and C and a declining player at 2B but we are committed to all of those players as LT options at their positions.

DH is about the only position that we think we have a solid producer.

So with that many question marks going forward it is crucial to get constant production from at least 2 if not 3 of those positions where we have holes.

1B is the easiest place to find this production followed by LF and then 3B.

You can say the Orioles need balance, but right now they need constant production, and they don't have it from anybody really in their lineup except for maybe the DH spot.

The best positions we can get solid production from are CF, RF, C. That's our young core right there. If you assume, like you are, that they remain question marks, then it doesn't matter if we have Albert Pujols at 1B, we aren't contending for anything. Consistent production from a single position doesn't give you anything except for security at a single position.

At the same time, you've already said that DH was a position were Luke Scott had a career year and it would be very difficult to duplicate that kind of production. With that, how is DH not also a question mark? In a down year, Markakis was worth 2.8 WAR to Scott's 3.1 (That's on Fangraphs). On Baseball-Reference, Markakis was 3.5 oWAR to Scott's 3.4 (ignoring defense). How is Markakis not a dependable source of production?

The goal for this team right now is to fill as many holes as they can without making bigger ones for themselves in the future. Jeopardizing what little rotation depth we have for a single year of Fielder is just ridiculous.

[melankfo]

We've seen that the majority of posters on here want to sign another player as a 1 year stopgap option for 1B during 2011. But who do you think they are a stopgap for?

Currently the FAs for 1B after 2011 will be the following:

Albert Pujols

Adrian Gonzalez

Prince Fielder

Ross Gload

Michael Cuddyer

The Orioles aren't signing Pujols. I think we can agree on that. Adrian Gonzalez is going to be a member of the Red Sox one way or another and might not even make this list as he could be traded and extended at the 2011 deadline.

So that leaves Prince Fielder as the only option for the Orioles other than Ross Gload or Michael Cuddyer.

For internal options the Orioles have just about nobody that can be depended on to be a difference making option at the ML level for them in the minors.

Brandon Snyder is no longer a prospect, and will need to have a monster season to avoid becoming an organizational player

Joe Mahoney is a 24 year old in AA that doesn't seem to be very well liked by scouts.

Tyler Townsend can't stay on the field long enough to produce.

So there you have the situation. It seems it is likely Prince Fielder or bust for the Orioles after 2011 unless MacPhail comes up with a major trade IMO.

But what do you think? Who do you see manning 1B for the Orioles in 2012 and beyond?

I think this is a very intelligent analysis of the situation. I demur somewhat on Mahoney, but that's it. Here's why: after a very poor start to his pro career, he's made major steps forward in his hitting each of the last two years. First, he began to hit for average -- at Delmarva -- and last year he added power to that -- at Frederick and then at Bowie. He has an unusually big body at 6-7.That might be a reason it's taken him a little longer to get it in gear. But, as others have pointed out, he did begin to tail off in the last month of 2010. Was that just fatigue or was the Eastern League starting to figure out how to pitch to him? I think the coming season is crucial: unless he has a big year at AAA, he probably won't be a major league first base regular.

[wildcard]

What the O's will be in a position to do a year from now is an unknown.

If Buck builds on the last two months of the season by getting the young players on the team to play to their potential then the O's are a first division team on the rise next off season. If Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton, Guthrie, the relievers, Markakis, Jones, Pie, Reimold, Roberts, Wieters, all play to their potential then we have a different team with a winning record next off season. The addition of a 1B, SS and 3B could be stopgap players who support the O's surge.

We saw this happen with Tampa Bay once the pitching was in place. It could happen in Baltimore. The important thing this off season to me is that MacPhail not trade away key pitchers that will be the elements to allow the team to raise and that the stopgap players have the ability to support the team's move upward. This coming year Tampa could fall back in the pack and Boston might be in a transition year.

I do not count the O's out of next year's free agent market. Not for AGon, Fielder or anyone else. And it doesn't matter if the O's sign a player this year to a one or two year contract. Luke Scott will be a year away from free agency next year and that is the time to trade him or extend him. So any first baseman could move to DH next if things fall right.

So to answer that question, it all depends on Buck's ability to get the potential out of the O's players. We saw what he can do late last year. If he can do it next year then next off season the big free agents might see Baltimore as a very desirable place to play.

[BrunoCherrytown]

Please look at your last post. You say you want the Orioles to be a consistent contender. Yet you advocate trading prospects? You do realize there is only 1 team in baseball that has been successful with that formula, right?

Do you also realize it takes years to build a competent organization?

Throwing money at first base, third base, or any problem is a sure way to go broke. You can ask many former players and executives about that.

Sorry if I derailed the thread.

Both of these bolded points speak of a much greater problem with the Orioles under MacPhail.

He is, in my opinion, a complete hypocrite in this regard. He does not spend a great deal on the draft after you take out of consideration his 1st round pick which is high so it of course is expensive.

How come the Red Sox have outspent us in the draft by $4 million since 2008? That's how you build an organization.

They've bought legit international prospects. That's how you build an organization.

So now when/if they trade for AGon it won't "raid their cupboard."

They have more scouts than us. That's how you build an organization. It didn't take very long for the Toronto GM to seriously up his scouting department.

It takes years to build an organization, you are completely right here. But MacPhail isn't even taking modest steps.

He takes half steps. He's a habitual half-stepper. Here and in Chicago.

Then he makes some generic speech about his steps and the more optimistic fans buy it hook, line, and sinker without looking at how his steps actually rate to the competition.

Scouts, a Bigger Draft Budget, and International Players is vastly and i mean VASTLY cheaper than signing $20 million free agents.

But he doesn't do it.

So to Trea's point. The Orioles HAVE to go buy big legit free agents like Fielder. Because MacPhail is not building an organization here in any kind of optimal time manner.

VMart did not qualify as a legit free agent. He would've set us back on getting a real first baseman in 2012.

And wasting time on a 2 year deal for these re-tread 1st basemen this year will just screw us further in the long run. Unless year 2 they are sitting on the bench or DH'ing.

Because we aren't properly "Building From Within" so we can't risk losing out on AGon or Fiedler. Whoever is available.

Many find Trea's posts to be a diatribe as I believe you put it in another post. May have been somebody else though.

But defending Andy MacPhail at this point in any regard, because he made one trade years ago yet has literally penny pinched the O's in just about every way possible at this point is just as bad.

Look at how bad it's gotten on the board recently.

The threads are about:

• grabbing non-tender castoffs from serious teams as our starting options.
• debating the merits of not offering our players arbitration when we never have any compensatory picks
• the merits of not bidding on a Japanese batting champion SS, because he may not be as good as "Hardy or Bartlett." Two guys who aren't that good right now anyways.
• Signing a 3rd baseman who will cost us our 2nd round pick yet has had his 2 best years in walk years. His best year was smack dab in the middle of the steroid era and is on the wrong side of 30.
• etc.

This is the state of the Orioles in the MacPhail era. We are too far into his era to have these topics as our most common threads. It's depressing.

The Orioles are a lesson in nepotism. How many MacPhail's, Stockstills, and Angelos' are in prominent positions in the organizations.

How about some fresh blood with fresh ideas? And maybe another last name or two. The expiration date on these guys was a long time ago.

So Trea's so-called "diatribes" may always indeed be negative, but it's one of those broken clock is always right twice a day scenarios. And he's right now.

Our farm system was "self-raided." We brought up everybody we could because our starters were a joke. No problem. We were all excited.

But there was no round 2 of the calvary. And that's because we don't have any international prospects. And we don't truly go after the top overslot picks in the draft. Even the Yankees always have top prospects in their system ready to come up. They had Austin Jackson just sitting around to trade to the Tigers. They have Jesus Montero now.

They always have the pieces to trade for a top player if they want to. And they oftentimes decide against it. The Red Sox always have a top farm system. The Rays do too. Now the Blue Jays will.

What is MacPhail doing to keep up with the competition? Does this require a 150 million dollar payroll? It does not. So why isn't he doing it?

To say he is would be to blindly ignore facts.

So unfortunately buying game changing players is our only option at this point (I don't include Beltre or Vmart in that).

Unless we are comfortable waiting another few years and hoping our young prospects up now + Britton all become perfect.

Fielder is our best option for 2012 because AGon will in all likelihood be a Red Sox. If AGon hits the market we need to outbid the Sox for him though. But we won't. So at least Fielder is out there.

I have to imagine that unless our Garrett Atkins 2011 version 1st baseman turns into Aubrey Huff version 2010 that MacPhail will have no choice but to offer the top market value contract to Fielder.

Because even the most positive fans will not let him screw them once again. Maybe at that point the excuses will finally run out for him.

So I'm rooting for a LaRoche/Pena signing just because they will hopefully only require a 1-year deal. Unless of course we get Dunn. And maybe Dunn can agree to DH if we bring in Fielder in 2012.

I have no grand hopes about us being a contender in 2011 anyways.

[delinodeshields]

Adrian Gonzalez would mash at Camden Yards. I think MacPhail and Showalter are well aware of this.

Trading for him would be a mistake unless he signed long term as part of the deal. But I do think he will hit the FA market, even if he is traded to Boston.

The Orioles should bet the house on Gonzalez. He is a legitimate 50 HR threat. I don't think 200/8 is out of the question. He is better then Teixeira.

[CSB Jack]

Well right now the sentiment on this board right now is that we need to be more of a lightning in bottle team, and will rely on players overachieving than what it will actually take to win games in this division.

I won't speak for the prevailing sentiment on this board since I am just an intermittent participant. For myself, I don't expect the Orioles to rely on a "lighnting in a bottle" approach, and when I come to the conclusion that such is the plan being followed then I will add my voice to the clamor for change at the highest levels. What I see as the strategy being followed is to cautiously (perhaps too much) building up the strength of the organization by improving the talent level throughout. If and when this pays off remains to be seen.

People see the Giants or Rays and think we can be that team, but this team just is too dissimilar to have those same strategies work.

To the extent that the Giants and Rays succeeded by having a dynamic young pitching staff, I think that is exactly something the Orioles can follow. To the extent that a collection of journeymen players came together and had unexpected success leading to a WS title this year, well, if the Orioles get that it will accelerate their progress in any given year but it would be unwise to count on that any more than my counting on winning the lottery to fund my retirement rather than building savings in my 401(k). This is a point where I agree with you. I'm not convinced that this is what the Orioles are doing - that is, trying to buy a winning lottery ticket rather than building a solid foundation.

And it feels like paddling upstream sometimes, as I feel I'm the only one who counters this overwhelming argument that improvement by itself is acceptable over actually doing what it will take to win. The apathy just sickens me, that people are willing to accept this team not doing what it will take to win as long as they just put a better product out on the field.

No doubt it does, but I believe you misinterpret the dissatisfaction others have with accepting status quo. I don't believe anyone on this board will be content with a goal of merely making progress to field a .500 team that is profitable to the ownership group. Putting a better product on the field should only be the next step in the process. Jumping all the way to contender would be great, as long as it can be done without derailing the long term prospects for the organization. I want them to contend in 2011, but more importantly I want them to contend in 2012-2020, and then from 2020 to the end of time. I'd even settle for what they did from 1960-1990, with the few down years interrupting a stretch of mostly quality play.

Better isn't good enough IMO. This team has to be one of the best in baseball and it has to get there soon to maxmize the potential of the core as they are all nearing if not at their peak. The next few years are the best chance this team has to reach the playoffs and WS with this group of players. We've waited and waited, and can't wait any longer. They have to strike.

I absolutely agree with the bolded part. I hope you never stop tilting at windmills in your calls for team improvement. Your energy and enthusiasm are commendable. I wish I had half your level of passion for pretty much anything at this point. Fortunately for me, I have other things I can devote my energy and attention to when the Orioles don't perform up to my wishes as a fan. I hope you, and me, and the rest of the Oriole fanbase do NOT have to wait, and wait, and wait any longer to see a good, competitive team that is fighting for a playoff spot in September.

You seem willing to invest a fair amount of time and energy in supporting your position that Prince Fielder is the best option for the Orioles at first base. In your original post at the beginning of this thread you wrote off A. Gonzalez as an option, which to me would be my first choice and one I am not so ready to write off just yet. However, I would like to offer you a challenge.

Suppose that for whatever combination of reasons neither Fielder nor Gonzalez are viable candidates for the Orioles to obtain, either this offseason or beyond. What are the top three options you could propose if you were charged by MacPhail with bringing him recommendations for long term approaches for handling first base? Your ground rules are: A) any trades have to make sense for both teams involved; B) any moves must make financial sense for the team - the Orioles will be willing to pay a fair value contract but are not going to pay "stupid" prices for anyone; and C) the team will not gut its farm system for any one player, not even a 23 year old Lou Gehrig. It does not have to be only one player that is identified today that holds the position for the next 5-10 years if you think it would be most cost effective for the level of performance provided versus payroll commitment to not put all your eggs in one basket. What are your recommendations?

This is a serious question and I think it fits with the thread title of first base in 2012 and beyond. You have more time and energy to devote to investigating the options than I do so I am sure you would come up with better choices than I would.

[Dannyboy]

So winning doesn't matter then?

I obsess about doing what it takes to actually win games because I want this team to win desperately and on a consistent basis.

And right now, this team needs to fix first base and stop putting in aging stopgap after aging stopgap and hoping they can get that player to buck the aging trend and overachieve. Huff is the only one to do it (but he technically was a DH as Millar played 1B primarily that year) and he only did it once.

I think he meant life in general.

[SilentJames]

Trea.

The following things need to happen for us to spend moneylike the Red Sox

1) Grow the Baltimore Metro Area to about 15 million people (New England) or at least 4.5 million (Greater Boston). Now, I just got engaged and all and My finace and I can do what we can but that will take a minute.

2) Raise the average ticket price 40%

3) Have an owner whos net worth is around 1.1 BILLION dollars