First base in 2012 and beyond

[Camden_yardbird]

Brandon Snyder is no longer a prospect, and will need to have a monster season to avoid becoming an organizational player

Of everything in the opening post this is what I have the most problems with. Snyder is still young, and has never been given a real shot at the majors. If he were the only option and put up a mediocre .280/.340/.450 with 15 HR and 70 RBI would you count him out? That is not monster season by any means. But by a 25 year old... in the majors, its reason to keep him around.

[JTrea81]

Of everything in the opening post this is what I have the most problems with. Snyder is still young, and has never been given a real shot at the majors. If he were the only option and put up a mediocre .280/.340/.450 with 15 HR and 70 RBI would you count him out? That is not monster season by any means. But by a 25 year old... in the majors, its reason to keep him around.

Not in this division. He might be able to be a bench player if he shows he can play 3B as well, but that production won't be acceptable for a 1B solution for the AL East.

[JTrea81]

Your response to my earlier question gave some reasonable options. I'd take Swisher, though I doubt the Yankees make him available. I'm higher on Butler than you are but without anything particurlarly solid to back it up other than perception and the fact that he derailed Bergesen for a year.

I'd say that they need upgrades at 3B, SS, and LF regardless of what they do at 1B if they want to contend. To me it's more important that they have talent period, regardless of whether it is established (veteran) or not, and regardless of position. The biggest advantage of veteran talent is a reduced uncertainty factor; the advantage of unproven talent is that it costs less and is under team control for longer. I don't want to see them try to go with rookies at all those positions, but I have no problem with younger options at some of them.

The problem is we've tried relying on unproven talent before with disasterous results. Why should we try that again? It's time to go with proven talent at the key offensive positions where we have holes because the first method didn't work. We had good pitching at the beginning of the year but the offense wasn't able to support it. We lost a lot of potential games that we could have one had we had offensive support. And our unproven talent that we relied on is still unproven, and thus is a question mark. We can't afford to have more question marks coming out of the offseason than we had going in.

Long term, the team needs to improve its ability to find and develop talent across the board. That means doing a better job in Latin America, and in the US. The improvements that have been made in the past couple years are only scratching the surface of what needs to be done. That way we won't be having the discussion two years from now about what to do for the long term solution for some other position. The reality is that if the Orioles had a farm system that was consistently producing major league talent they could easily compete with the other teams in the AL East because even if they could not sustain a payroll on par with Boston or NYY they would be able to go higher than they have recently to either retain their homegrown talent or to supplement with trades and free agents.

I agree that this team needs to get more talented in the minors, and eventually will need to rely on the minors to supplement the talent they have. And to do that they are going to need to draft better, scout better and actually make a plunge in Latin America and sign some of the higher priced talent, epecially some of the more advanced amateurs such as Cuban defectors.

However, they also need to win now, and building up that core of minor league talent is going to take some time, and the Orioles are simply running out of time to compete with this core. It's basically now or never. They either have to do what it takes to compete with these guys and commit to winning with them. Or they need to blow it up and start all over and wait until they have a roster that is more talented throughout. If they pick the former, they are going to have to trade some non-core players and deplete their group of prospects temporarily. That's the only way they are going to get the talent they neeed. Free agency can't give them everything. However, I said temporarily because this team can't stop drafting well, and needs to continue to stockpile the minors with talented arms and bats at all levels, not just in A ball. Prospects can be replaced, and this team can afford to have a down year production wise in the minors as long as they have solid options at the ML level at all positions.

The Orioles of the 60's and 70's had a core of players for multiple years. They weren't having to mix and match from year to year with veteran stopgaps at key positions like the Orioles have been. And when players were past their prime, they were replaced by somebody in the minors that did just as well if not better. They need to get back to that model. The Red Sox are using that right now to a certain extent.

[Moose Milligan]

T

The Orioles of the 60's and 70's had a core of players for multiple years.

Yeah, you know why? Cause free agency hadn't really taken off yet.

[DrungoHazewood]

Because eventually if you don't you will be running out of good options to sign short-term.

Free agency is getting worse not better, and the 1 year players are going to be start being more like Ross Gload.

That would be true if it weren't demonstrably false.

The Orioles of the 60's and 70's had a core of players for multiple years. They weren't having to mix and match from year to year with veteran stopgaps at key positions like the Orioles have been.

As Moose said, this was because the dynastic O's of the '66-'74 time period happened before free agency. You signed a kid at 18, and unless you wanted to get rid of him he was yours until the day he retired at essentially whatever you wanted to pay him.

But if you'd bothered to run your clock ahead a few years you'd find your argument is largely without merit. The 1979-83 Orioles had tons of players you'd regard as stopgaps or non-premium talent that couldn't cut it in the AL East. The '83 World Champs had sub-replacement performance at 2B and 3B, they had a right fielder and a center fielder each worth less than a win, and they cobbled together platoons of discards and retreads in left, DH, and catcher. Their 4th starter was two wins below replacement. The two big stars on the team were homegrown.

Aside from the '96-'97 teams the Orioles have never competed by signing big free agents. Bargains, retreads, castoffs and others who you would have mocked and disdained formed much of the core of the O's dynasty of my youth.

[Flosman]

Trea was Pena a premium talent when the Rays picked him up?

[tilgaham]

This post is just outstanding. One of the best I've ever read here.

Unfortunately, it will fall on deaf ears. There are a few things in play here IMO. He likes the attention. He is a dork who marches to an odd drummer beat (before you think this is an insult, some of my best friends are dorks; I am an engineer by degree and nature so I'm a bit of a dork to most "normal" folks; but this personality type, like all personality types, has positive and negative attributes; unfortunately this particular manifestation of the dorky personality is dogged determination to see it through despite "popular" push back). Add to that a feeling that he has very little going on in his life other than than the Orioles and this board and you get an unusual compilation of characteristics and circumstance that lead to the current state of affairs.

He can't be reasoned with or dissuaded or even abused into silence. It just doesn't matter to him. I've never seen someone refuse to even attempt to modify their approach after being so universally discredited. I continue to marvel at it which is why I continue to open these type of threads when I do venture back into this space. He is like sunrise, taxes, and death.

Unfortunately for most of the rest of us, this means we'll continue to be subjected to what seems like nails continuously dragging across a chalkboard. Because of this person and a few other issues, I chose to seriously diminish my participation here several months ago. I don't think I'm alone.

On the bright side, I basically took your advice before you gave it. I started using the time I was "wasting" here trying to fight a battle that not only can't be won, but ultimately doesn't matter, to do things that matter in my personal life. It has been a great decision and I'm really happy I did it. So, in a way, I owe a debt of gratitude to JTrea and a few others around here.

Happy holidays everyone...

I appreciate it. Happy holidays to yourself :beerchug1:

[Moose Milligan]

That would be true if it weren't demonstrably false.

As Moose said, this was because the dynastic O's of the '66-'74 time period happened before free agency. You signed a kid at 18, and unless you wanted to get rid of him he was yours until the day he retired at essentially whatever you wanted to pay him.

But if you'd bothered to run your clock ahead a few years you'd find your argument is largely without merit. The 1979-83 Orioles had tons of players you'd regard as stopgaps or non-premium talent that couldn't cut it in the AL East. The '83 World Champs had sub-replacement performance at 2B and 3B, they had a right fielder and a center fielder each worth less than a win, and they cobbled together platoons of discards and retreads in left, DH, and catcher. Their 4th starter was two wins below replacement. The two big stars on the team were homegrown.

Aside from the '96-'97 teams the Orioles have never competed by signing big free agents. Bargains, retreads, castoffs and others who you would have mocked and disdained formed much of the core of the O's dynasty of my youth.

Great explanation. It'll go ignored.

[El Gordo]

Speaking of retreads, why not play Luke at 1B and sign Vlad to DH for a couple of years?

[JTrea81]

Aside from the '96-'97 teams the Orioles have never competed by signing big free agents. Bargains, retreads, castoffs and others who you would have mocked and disdained formed much of the core of the O's dynasty of my youth.

Before 1994 the Orioles had signed Rafael Palmeiro, Chris Sabo and Lee Smith and they were competitive before the strike with a record of 63-49. The Orioles might have been a playoff team had it not been for the '94 strike.

[Moose Milligan]

Before 1994 the Orioles had signed Rafael Palmeiro, Chris Sabo and Lee Smith and they were competitive before the strike with a record of 63-49. The Orioles might have been a playoff team had it not been for the '94 strike.

Chris Sabo? :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[JTrea81]

Chris Sabo? :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Laugh if you want but the point is the Orioles only had a $38.7 million dollar payroll in 1994 and those three players were 24% of it.

[Moose Milligan]

Laugh if you want but the point is the Orioles only had a $38.7 million dollar payroll in 1994 and those three players were 24% of it.

I will laugh. It's almost like you sandwiched Sabo between Palmeiro and Smith and hoped no one would notice. Sabo played in a whopping total of 68 games with the Orioles and put up a slash line of .256/.320/.465. He was an awesome FA acquisition.

You're sitting here arguing about 3 players tying up 24% of the the Orioles money for the 1994 season and you're acting like it's a good thing that Sabo was a part of that? Chris Sabo would be *almost* like your mid 90's version of Scott Moore. Would you be complaining that he wasn't brought back for the '95 campaign?

Who would your mid 80's man crush be? Al Pardo?

[El Gordo]

Laugh if you want but the point is the Orioles only had a $38.7 million dollar payroll in 1994 and those three players were 24% of it.

That's 57M in today's $$$

[Moose Milligan]

That's 57M in today's $$$

Not that I'm doubting you, but can you show us the math?