Point Blank. Our Opening Day first baseman will be...

[RVAbird]

Well ,I understand that, but how many players that don't hit for a decent average make the Hall? I know that to become a Hall of Famer, that you must meet certain crtiteria, and that is where my logic of stats come into play. I can't remember too many players being listed as "He hit the ball hard and drove in 100 runs by being hit by pitch or walking". There are players that we deem great players from the past, that will never make that walk up the podium, because they met the requirements that the "New Breed of Fan" judge them at qualifying for, but the "Old Ways" do not.

I'm not gonna pretend I understand the new stats, and I realize I'm overmatched with alot of posters because they do. To try to incorporate my arguments with new stats would be like Clinton arguing Global Defense, but it doesn't make me an average fan either. I understand what it takes to build a winner, because I've seen one in Baltimore with my own eyes. I know it takes a balance, and O's fans today are not allowed to see that for one reason: It might cost too much, and I'll guarantee you this: Until the Orioles add a starter that wins more than he loses, and a .290-.300 hitter with power plugged into the 4th spot in the lineup, we'll never see one again .

One basic distinction that's very important in making value judgments on just about anything in life is the difference between causation and correlation. Just because high batting averages tend to be (moderately) correlated with good production doesn't mean that high batting averages cause good production.

The key difference between accepting the correlation and inferring causation is that doing the latter closes you off from the possibility that players might give very good production without very good batting averages (and, subsequently, the possibility that players might give very poor production with very good batting averages), which occurs fairly frequently.

[GoldGlove21]

Well ,I understand that, but how many players that don't hit for a decent average make the Hall? I know that to become a Hall of Famer, that you must meet certain crtiteria, and that is where my logic of stats come into play. I can't remember too many players being listed as "He hit the ball hard and drove in 100 runs by being hit by pitch or walking". There are players that we deem great players from the past, that will never make that walk up the podium, because they met the requirements that the "New Breed of Fan" judge them at qualifying for, but the "Old Ways" do not.

I'm not gonna pretend I understand the new stats, and I realize I'm overmatched with alot of posters because they do. To try to incorporate my arguments with new stats would be like Clinton arguing Global Defense, but it doesn't make me an average fan either. I understand what it takes to build a winner, because I've seen one in Baltimore with my own eyes. I know it takes a balance, and O's fans today are not allowed to see that for one reason: It might cost too much, and I'll guarantee you this: Until the Orioles add a starter that wins more than he loses, and a .290-.300 hitter with power plugged into the 4th spot in the lineup, we'll never see one again .

I love the Orioles, but the 1966, 1970, and 1983 Orioles do not win a World Series these days. The game has changed and the balance of power has changed as well. Plenty of teams spend a good amount of money each year and fail to win a world series. As far as building a great team goes, I can watch my Dad build an awesome house, but it doesn't mean I can do it.

We like to say that you have to spend money to win in baseball and for the most part I agree with that statement, but there are not many teams that can mimic how the Red Sox and Yankees do business. Unfortunately both of those teams are in our division so we can not do what the Giants, Rockies, Marlins, Twins, White Sox, and Rangers do. It would not be good enough to compete on a year-to-year basis. The Orioles are doing the right thing because going out an paying Werth $126M isn't going to be enough, giving Beltre 5/$70M isn't enough, and giving Cliff Lee a huge deal isn't enough unless Jones, Wieters, and our young pitchers perform up to their potential or at least start to close the gap between their current production and their potential IMO.

It may feel like the Orioles are a player or two away, but we are not. We were 66-96 last year. 30 games under .500 is not close to competing. I understand under acheiving and the 34-23 record under Showalter the last 57 games of the season, but do you really think that we would have been 68-46 through the first 112 games and 96-66 for the year if he would have started the season as our coach? If course not, the Orioles were not as bad as their record, but doesn't the record say all we really need to know? This team will only go as far as the young arms can take it IMO.

The Orioles upgrade SS, they upgrade 3B, and they will likely drastically upgrade 1B with a future signing. Do those three upgrades make us anything more then a 80-84 win team?

As far as the HOF goes, I think the HOF compares players utilizing many factors. One of the biggest factors has to be comparing a given player to prior HOF'ers at a given position along with comparing said player to his peers. I didn't need many stats to tell me that Cal Ripken was a better hitting shortstop than most of his peers or that his defense was second only to Omar Visquel most years. He was probably the best all around shortstop to play the game until Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter came around. No offense to Cal Ripken, but Alex Rodriguez was a monster at the plate and a good fielder. Some years are more difficult than others to identify the worthy candidates however. I have never received an award that read "To Josh for making the company $1.5M in 2009", but I am fairly certain that had something to do with me receiving the award.

[GoldGlove21]

I can list a lot of very good baseball players that have a career average over .300 that are not in the HOF.

Don Mattingly .307

Lefty O'Doul .349

Pete Browning .341

Riggs Stephenson .336

Mike Donlin .333

Tip O'Niell .326 (Only Triple Crown winner to not be elected)

There are many more examples as well. Is Ichiro the best hitter to every play the game? He is likely to reach 3,000 hits in the majors and still have 1,500+ in Japan. It depends on what your definition of being a great hitter is. I think Pujols is a much better hitter than Pujols. I think Babe Ruth was much better than Pujols. For me, it is all about greatness when compared to your peers.

[ilbm88]

I am guessing in the coming week, laroche will sign a 2 year deal with a option for a third year. Maybe i am sorry but think before you post. Mcphail has made the infield into a really good one.

[QBsILLEST1]

I can list a lot of very good baseball players that have a career average over .300 that are not in the HOF.

Don Mattingly .307

Lefty O'Doul .349

Pete Browning .341

Riggs Stephenson .336

Mike Donlin .333

Tip O'Niell .326 (Only Triple Crown winner to not be elected)

There are many more examples as well. Is Ichiro the best hitter to every play the game? He is likely to reach 3,000 hits in the majors and still have 1,500+ in Japan. It depends on what your definition of being a great hitter is. I think Pujols is a much better hitter than Pujols. I think Babe Ruth was much better than Pujols. For me, it is all about greatness when compared to your peers.

Pujols is the best hitter in the ML right now, and when including the entire package, for me Pujols is among the legends.......

[GoldGlove21]

Pujols is the best hitter in the ML right now, and when including the entire package, for me Pujols is among the legends.......

I feel the same, but he is not Babe Ruth. That was my point, for years no one touched Ruth.

[GoldGlove21]

I am guessing in the coming week, laroche will sign a 2 year deal with a option for a third year. Maybe i am sorry but think before you post. Mcphail has made the infield into a really good one.

I am not sure that Wieters, Reynolds, Hardy, Roberts, and LaRoche/Lee/Scott is really good, but is much better than Wierters, Tejada, Itzturis, Roberts, and Wigginton/Atkins.

The Orioles lineup lacked power last season. Outside of Scott, Wigginton, and Jones this team could not hit the long ball. This team (assuming we sign a capable first baseman) could have a 50+ homerun improvement over last season.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I will say this. When a player stands at the podium at the Hall of Fame, and is being inducted, how many times when being introduced and hearing his career acheivements, are there OPS, SGL, and WAR numbers listed? They announce his lifetime batting average, hits, home runs, stolen bases , RBI's, ect. The ESPN so called experts usually giving commentary are spitting out those numbers, but if the new found stats that alot of people call gospel are so important, then why is the most important ceremony known to baseball players that have played the game for centuries caught up and consider these stats important enough to list when receiving the most decorated award a player can receive? Just a simple question:

The fact that you call on-base percentage and slugging percentage "new-found" stats shows you to be, simply put, either uninformed or a liar.

One of those two can be fixed, but only by you yourself doing the work. The other completely eliminates your opinions from consideration.

You should decide which one you are and act accordingly.

Oh, and considering I made the comparison of geocentrism versus heliocentrism in the post you replied to, and you went ahead to act in the same manner as those who refused to accept new knowledge and were soon left in the dustbin of history, that tells me a lot about you.

[Orioles4Life21]

Well, I'd say this. I'd trade Reynolds, Tejada and Bell for Ichiro with what his hits provide for a team. Some people will have to see what frustration that Reynolds will provide before agreeing with me. Welcome to Ryan Minor #2

Yea the Mariners offense has been fantastic the last few years.

Interesting fact: Last season, Ichiro had 214 hits to Reynolds' 99. However, Reynolds actually scored more runs than Ichiro did last season. 79 to Ichiro's 74. Thats something isn't it? He scored 5 more runs while collecting 115 less hits. You win the game by scoring runs right? .....sorry if this point was brought up already.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Yea the Mariners offense has been fantastic the last few years.

Interesting fact: Last season, Ichiro had 214 hits to Reynolds' 99. However, Reynolds actually scored more runs than Ichiro did last season. 79 to Ichiro's 74. Thats something isn't it? He scored 5 more runs while collecting 115 less hits. You win the game by scoring runs right? .....sorry if this point was brought up already.

You are absolutely correct. Unfortunately the problem with stubborn people is that they don't know when or how to admit they are wrong.

Which, to answer one of his earlier questions, is why a shrinking number of people within baseball and the media still follow the old beliefs: they are too stubborn to agree with anything else.

[carolinaoriole]

I think it will be Lee.

[Mad Mark]

Uh, wow. I voted Scott, with the idea that Lee is going to Texas, LaRoche to DC and the Orioles signing either Vlad or Manny to DH for a year.

[maybe2050]

I can list a lot of very good baseball players that have a career average over .300 that are not in the HOF.

Don Mattingly .307

Lefty O'Doul .349

Pete Browning .341

Riggs Stephenson .336

Mike Donlin .333

Tip O'Niell .326 (Only Triple Crown winner to not be elected)

There are many more examples as well. Is Ichiro the best hitter to every play the game? He is likely to reach 3,000 hits in the majors and still have 1,500+ in Japan. It depends on what your definition of being a great hitter is. I think Pujols is a much better hitter than Pujols. I think Babe Ruth was much better than Pujols. For me, it is all about greatness when compared to your peers.

Well I stand corrected. I guess batting average isn't the most important factor in evaluating a player, but still feel it shouldn't be discarded like alot of people like to do sometimes. I'd have to say Ted Williams when making a choice of the greatest hitter of all time. Just imagine what numbers Williams would have had if the military wouldn't have came into play? .344 lifetime batting average, 521 HR's (done before juice was a factor), 1,839 RBI's, 525 doubles, 2,654 hits, etc. I'd say the true definition of the all around player.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willite01.shtml

And I chose Scott also. I don't think MacPhail has the gonads to actually sign someone besides a bottom feeder. If he can pull off Laroche or Lee, I'd truly be estatic and feel we've accomplished something this offseason. We will have added 2 bats, shored up the infield, brought back a potential closer, kept Scott in left where he belongs and allows plenty of time and less pressure to make the final 2 moves needed for a starter and a DH. He needs to quit peeing around and get us a firstbaseman. If we get stuck with Scott at first or have to go with a Cantu type, there truly is no-one to blame but MacPhail

[Frobby]

I love the Orioles, but the 1966, 1970, and 1983 Orioles do not win a World Series these days.

I don't follow your logic here. Those teams were great against the teams that existed at the time. Obviously the players of today tend to be bigger and stronger and the pitchers throw harder, etc. So from that perspective, you are probably right that teams from 25-40 years ago would have a hard time competing with the teams of today. But if you are saying is that, relative to the rest of the league at the time, those Oriole teams aren't as good as some of the teams today, I couldn't disagree more. Certainly the 1970 team stacks up favorably against almost any team that has won the World Series since then. That team outscored its opponents by 218 runs, a bigger margin than any of the Yankee teams since then except the '98 Yankees and a bigger margin than any Red Sox team.

[GoldGlove21]

Well I stand corrected. I guess batting average isn't the most important factor in evaluating a player, but still feel it shouldn't be discarded like alot of people like to do sometimes. I'd have to say Ted Williams when making a choice of the greatest hitter of all time. Just imagine what numbers Williams would have had if the military wouldn't have came into play? .344 lifetime batting average, 521 HR's (done before juice was a factor), 1,839 RBI's, 525 doubles, 2,654 hits, etc. I'd say the true definition of the all around player.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willite01.shtml

And I chose Scott also. I don't think MacPhail has the gonads to actually sign someone besides a bottom feeder. If he can pull off Laroche or Lee, I'd truly be estatic and feel we've accomplished something this offseason. We will have added 2 bats, shored up the infield, brought back a potential closer, kept Scott in left where he belongs and allows plenty of time and less pressure to make the final 2 moves needed for a starter and a DH. He needs to quit peeing around and get us a firstbaseman. If we get stuck with Scott at first or have to go with a Cantu type, there truly is no-one to blame but MacPhail

I do not think that it is about "gonads" with MacPhail in this case (or any other for that matter). It is about allocating your resources in a manner that he see's fit. LaRoche and Lee are not superstars, at one point Lee was in the conversation, but that time has likely passed. Would both help the Orioles? Yes. I just do not see how the entire offseason in your eyes is intertwined with first base being filled by one of Lee or LaRoche. I would prefer a proven first baseman as well, but that shouldn't define this offseason although I will continue to hold Andy MacPhail accountable for not landing a big time bat. I think Dunn was that bat as he was just looking for the best contract and he could mash, but defense seems to be a priority for the Orioles and I can not knock that way of thinking. My issue would be if we planted Scott there in 2011, why pass on a poor fielding option and plant a similar fielder there instead?