Orioles Lineup with Derrek Lee

[JTrea81]

1. Derek Lee is most like a 2.5-3.5 win guy, so let's just say 3.

2. Mark Reynolds is very similar: 2.5-3.5. So, 3 again.

3. JJ Hardy is a bit more of an enigma, he could be a 2 win guy or a 4 win guy. So, let's roll with 3 again.

Last year, we put up some pretty terrible numbers at 3B, SS, and 1B. The combination of Wiggy, Atkins, Bell, and Izturis really netted us probably a wash in terms of wins. Atkins, Bell, and Izzy for sure cost us wins (probably something like 2 wins), and Wiggy probably netted us about half a win or less at the corner spots. So, you're talking about 4 guys at 3 hotspots pretty much costing us 1-1.5 wins. Let's just say -1 wins.

Upgrading 3B, SS, and 1B (and assuming health) with the players above should net us anywhere from 7-11 wins. I like going with the mean, so that's 9 wins. If we look into what the positions cost us last year (-1), you're talking about a possibility growth of roughly 10 wins. If anyone has a breakout year, you're looking at 12 wins. If someone is injured or underperforms, probably 7 wins. Let's roll with 10.

The Orioles were 66-96. A 10 win improvement will not vault them into any playoffs, without a doubt. It won't even make them a .500 team. It'll make them a 76 win team for a record of 76-86. Not awful, but nowhere near contention in the AL East.

What other key cogs are we to look at?

Well, a full season of Brian Roberts, for one. He netted us about 1.5 wins at 2B, and Ty probably got us about .5-1 win at 2B for a total of roughly 2.5. I don't think it's unfair to (assuming health) think that Roberts could put up a 3.5-4.5 win campaign in 2011. That's an improvement of 1-2 wins. Let's just stick with the average and say 1.5 wins. That's still only a 77-85 record (teetering on 78-84). Still 3 games under .500.

Where are the other wins going to come from?

Well, the areas of uncertainty that we have issues with are the following:

LF: Felix Pie is a guy with amazing skills who can't stay healthy or consistent with the bat. I think he's a guy that can put up a .750 OPS while playing great defense. He netted us nearly half a win last year, so him in left field could probably improve on that to a full win (assuming health, which is hard for Pie) or slightly more (1.5). So, let's say 1 win.

1 win out of LF is not going to get it done. Pie is going to have to be healthy the entire season and improve on defense (which he's done) in order to be of value to us in 2011. And he's one of my favourite players.

That leaves guys like Nolan Reimold. Can he bounce back? In 2009 he netted us roughly 1 win. His batting was phenomenal for a rookie, but his fielding made Pat Burrell look like Carl Crawford.

The issue in left field is quite simply this: we need a healthy Pie with a consistent bat or Reimold to come back with a vengeance. Best case scenario either way is an improvement of 2-3 wins assuming a breakout year for either. Worst case scenario is a marginal improvement of 1 win.

Needless to say, Reimold going in a tailspin last year really added uncertainty to an outfield which was supposed to be a strong suit. So, that vaults us to 78-79 wins for a something like 78-84 or 79-83. Still under .500. STILL not a competitor.

C: Matt Wieters. A lot of people anointed him the second coming of Joe Mauer. And he's failed to live up to those expectations. However, I still think he has a lot of growing to do (and will grow, as well). In his last 2 seasons, he's put up WARs of 1.5 and 2.3. People are estimating him to make a huge jump this year. I think he'll probably put up an OPS of around 800. If that's the case, you're looking at something like 3.5-4 wins assuming good defense. If that's the case, that's an improvement of 1-2 wins. So, something like 1.5.

If Wieters breaks out an puts up a 900 OPS season, you're looking at several more wins, but I'm not holding my breath for something like that in 2011. It's possible, but let's keep things realistic for the sake of this post.

An .800 OPS will most likely net him something like 4 wins. That's an improvement of 1.5-2. Let's stay with 1.5 Now, we're teetering on the .500 record.

With all that said and done, a .500 record is possible with just the upgrades we made at 3B and SS, and assuming Lee putting up a slightly above average year at 1B (and assuming we sign him). It also assumes Roberts being healthy.

It's not unrealistic from a perspective of Pie/Reimold giving us nearly 1 win. Because I think the 2 of them could do it. If either of them has a consistent year (Pie) or bounceback (Reimold), then that will be huge for this team.

Continued improvement from Matt Wieters is in the books, and I think most people think he'll at least improvement. Now, for an improvement of 1-2 wins? Not outlandish.

So what does this say? Assuming health and our acquisitions (as well as Luke Scott giving us something like 2-3 wins), we should be a .500 team give or take 2 wins.

What is going to make us a competitor? Our pitching staff.

Last year we scored 613 runs, but allowed 785. The 785 runs against is actually an improvement from 2009 when we allowed 876 (91 runs). It's actually the first time we allowed less than 800 runs since 2002 when we allowed 773. I think we need to keep lowering that number, and get us somewhere in the 700-720 range. If we can lower that even more (which will mean breakout years from a lot of guys), then you're looking at a serious competitor.

We'll need our pitching staff to continue their improvement from the last half of last year. That means:

Guthrie needs to have another consistent, strong season.

Matusz needs to continue improving (which I certainly think he will)

Bergesen needs to continue improving (which is certainly a possibility given him starting the season healthy)

It also means one of Arrieta or Tillman are going to have to step up their game. Jake is going to have to improve his SO total and drop his walk rate. Tillman needs to be consistent.

This pitching staff can go a long way with Guthrie, Matusz, and Bergy having a strong 2011. It'll be pretty amazing if a guy like Arrieta or Tillman can have a strong 2011, as well.

As always, it's going to come down to pitching. Our hitting will most likely be an average to slightly above average team in 2011, which is an improvement on a very lackluster 2010. But our pitching is what is going to need to hit on all cylinders for us to have a competitive 2011.

With that said, I expect us to be anywhere from a 78-84 win team in 2011.

Go O's!

That's fine but competitive is 90 wins or better in the AL East.

Say our pitching staff gets us to that 90 wins. Wouldn't you have liked to have upgraded just a little bit more to see if we could have been a playoff team?

That's what I'm talking about. If the Orioles just add one more bat in addition to Lee, they'd have at least some potential of being in the playoffs instead of just an above .500 team.

[UMDTerrapins]

I like the OP lineup, but I think Reimold will take LF away from Pie during the course of the season. Regardless, that's a lineup that when paired with some real progress in the rotation adds up to a winner.

[El Gordo]

That's fine but competitive is 90 wins or better in the AL East.

Say our pitching staff gets us to that 90 wins. Wouldn't you have liked to have upgraded just a little bit more to see if we could have been a playoff team?That's what I'm talking about. If the Orioles just add one more bat in addition to Lee, they'd have at least some potential of being in the playoffs instead of just an above .500 team.

Unless you think a FA like Werth, Crawford, or Dunn is that kind of upgrade, the upgrade you have in mind would have cost us some of that pitching. You have to rob Peter to pay Paul.

[isestrex]

I'd swap Pie and Hardy to put some speed at the bottom of the lineup to duo with Roberts.

Other than that, it certainly looks like an AL East lineup.

[scOtt]

For mediocrity or slightly better? There is more the Orioles can do to strengthen that lineup with the players that are left out there via FA and trade. I would hope you'd expect more from the team than that...

Any lineup with a .718 OPS Pie in it and a batter with a .198 AVG hitting 5th is not "sweet" IMO...especially not for Jones, Wieters and Markakis.

I have to agree. It's going to be tragic when those three put up a combined .600 OPS because we didn't get that one premium bat to protect all three. Everyone knows a player can never progress on their own.

[DrungoHazewood]

For mediocrity or slightly better? There is more the Orioles can do to strengthen that lineup with the players that are left out there via FA and trade. I would hope you'd expect more from the team than that...

I'd hope you'd have gotten a big dose of reality in your stocking, but I know better. You're still putting "1.100 OPS first baseman, and five other wildly expensive premium talents" on your letter to Santa every year, and are very, very bitter when you only get significant upgrades at three or four positions.

Any lineup with a .718 OPS Pie in it and a batter with a .198 AVG hitting 5th is not "sweet" IMO...especially not for Jones, Wieters and Markakis

Strange how all non-Orioles in your own little projection system get to have career years in 2011 (all Red Sox players are now MVP candidates!!), but Pie and Reynolds get to have their 10% projections come true.

[weams]

I'd hope you'd have gotten a big dose of reality in your stocking, but I know better. You're still putting "1.100 OPS first baseman, and five other wildly expensive premium talents" on your letter to Santa every year, and are very, very bitter when you only get significant upgrades at three or four positions.

Strange how all non-Orioles in your own little projection system get to have career years in 2011 (all Red Sox players are now MVP candidates!!), but Pie and Reynolds get to have their 10% projections come true.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Jon Wilt.

Happy New Year.

[Crazysilver03]

I'd hope you'd have gotten a big dose of reality in your stocking, but I know better. You're still putting "1.100 OPS first baseman, and five other wildly expensive premium talents" on your letter to Santa every year, and are very, very bitter when you only get significant upgrades at three or four positions.

Strange how all non-Orioles in your own little projection system get to have career years in 2011 (all Red Sox players are now MVP candidates!!), but Pie and Reynolds get to have their 10% projections come true.

This x 1000000!

[Palmoripken]

It's a nice improvement over last year and there's really not a black hole spot like there was with Izturis in tehre. Anyhow, I agree with you about the top of the lineup but would have a different bottom so here's mine and my logic.

1.) Brian Roberts, 2B: Easy, he's a very solid lead off man and table setter.

2.) Nick Markakis, RF: Nick's at his best in the 2 hole, and it's a great spot for a patient and doubles hitter such as him.

3.) Derrek Lee, 1B: Thinking too we ink him soon, and he's got pretty good patience and power.

4.) Luke Scott, DH: I like Luke's pop for this spot.

5.) Mark Reynolds, 3B: Plenty of RBI and homer chances for Mark here.

6.) Adam Jones: CF:Good spot for him

7.) Matt Wieters, C: Can move up if he reaches his potential

8.) J.J Hardy, SS: A little pop at the bottom of the order here.

9.) Felix Pie, LF: I've always heard that the 9 hole can be viewed as a second leadoff spot in that case I'd want Felix here since he's fairly speedy.

The thing I like about this lineup is if constructed the right way, it will be tough for opposing managers to do match ups since we will say we get Lee have a good assortment of righties and lefties htiters. Plus, the new guys career wise are solid against lefties which has been a problem the team has had. I am not expecting the playoffs this year but this could be the best Orioles team in a while.

[Spy Fox]

2b Roberts

Rf Markakis

1b Lee

Dh/Lf Scott

3b Reynolds

Cf Jones

C Wieters

Lf/Dh Pie/Reimold

Ss Hardy

This is an exciting lineup.

The Pie/Reimold decision is tough to say right now. I think, assuming only one of them is in the regular lineup, that battle will have to be decided in Spring Training, or even in their early season performance.

[JTrea81]

Strange how all non-Orioles in your own little projection system get to have career years in 2011 (all Red Sox players are now MVP candidates!!), but Pie and Reynolds get to have their 10% projections come true.

I hate to break it to you but all those Red Sox core players are MVP candidates. The Orioles don't have anybody close to those 6 players in terms of talent.

[JTrea81]

If we're doing a lineup with Lee in it this is what I propose:

2B Roberts

RF Markakis

1B Lee

DH Thome

CF Jones

LF Scott

3B Reynolds

C Wieters

SS Hardy

Now that team has a shot at the playoffs on Opening Day if everything breaks right. It is an 86 win team on paper with a potential of 90+ if people overachieve.

I'm not talking a huge commitment to a slugger by trading away half our farm system - rather just one more bat.

You get rid of a weak link in Pie and Reimold and push that to the bench where you can afford less production.

[Spy Fox]

I hate to break it to you but all those Red Sox core players are MVP candidates. The Orioles don't have anybody close to those 6 players in terms of talent.

I'm sure those six players include Crawford, Gonzalez, Pedroia, and Youklis. Who else do you see on their roster that is part of the core, and superior to anyone on our roster?

[JTrea81]

I'm sure those six players include Crawford, Gonzalez, Pedroia, and Youklis. Who else do you see on their roster that is part of the core, and superior to anyone on our roster?

Buchholz and Lester.

[helloharv]

If we're doing a lineup with Lee in it this is what I propose:

2B Roberts

RF Markakis

1B Lee

DH Thome

CF Jones

LF Scott

3B Reynolds

C Wieters

SS Hardy

Now that team has a shot at the playoffs on Opening Day if everything breaks right. It is an 86 win team on paper with a potential of 90+ if people overachieve.

I'm not talking a huge commitment to a slugger by trading away half our farm system - rather just one more bat.

You get rid of a weak link in Pie and Reimold and push that to the bench where you can afford less production.

Are you crazy? We have improved by 20 wins this off-season