Orioles Lineup with Derrek Lee

[UMDTerrapins]

Know how you can not accept mediocrity?

Stop being an Orioles fan and go root for the Sox or Yankees.

PA doesn't trade within the division.

[UMDTerrapins]

So what's the over/under on players with 18+ HRs?

[larrytt]

Know how you can not accept mediocrity?

Stop being an Orioles fan and go root for the Sox or Yankees.

Agreed. This is a great day for O's fans. We're among the most improved teams in all of baseball, and we probably have more coming for the bullpen.

To the hard-core pessimists, why not take the rest of the year off? Heck, take next year off too.

What's nice is that we now have a serious team that, if a couple players have breakout seasons - and we're loaded with players who could - then some very nice things could happen. Even if the Red Sox win a zillion games (and not every team that's projected to win a zillion games actually does so), the Yankees and Rays are vulnerable, and the wild card spot could be wide open.

And if we have a good showing in 2011, then guess how much more attractive we'll be to free agents for 2012?

[JTrea81]

And, of course, you completely avoided addressing the fact that you project the Sox to almost all have career years, while projecting Reynolds and Pie to not even approach theirs, instead just repeating injury-plagued down seasons.

I projected Reynolds at 3.0

His career high is 3.6 fWAR. Last season he was at 2.4

I projected Pie at 1.0

Pie's career high was 1.1 fWAR but last season he was at 0.3

Youkilis was at 4.2 last year with only 102 GP. His career high is 5.9 in 2009. So 5.5 is pretty reasonable IMO. The fans are projecting him at 6.8 fWAR BTW

As for Pedroia he had 3.3 fWAR in only 75 GP last season. So 6.0 is pretty reasonable for him. The fans are projecting him at 6.3 fWAR.

Carl Crawford had 6.9 fWAR last season so 6.0 again is reasonable for him. Fans are projecting him at 6.3 fWAR as well.

Adrian Gonzalez had 5.3 fWAR last season with a career high of 6.5, Getting out of PETCO and the pitching friendly NL West parks I think he'll rebound. Fans are projecting him at 5.9 fWAR so I might be a little optimistic there with 6.0, so fine - knock off .5 fWAR.

If you actually look and see what they did last year, the age they are as they are still very much in their prime, you will see that these projections are more realistic than you would think.

The Red Sox have MVP talent at several positions. That is reality, and if you'd look you'd see I basically rated them the same as I did the Orioles players - not quite giving them their career year, but still giving them something I think they can reach.

[JTrea81]

Agreed. This is a great day for O's fans. We're among the most improved teams in all of baseball, and we probably have more coming for the bullpen.

To the hard-core pessimists, why not take the rest of the year off? Heck, take next year off too.

What's nice is that we now have a serious team that, if a couple players have breakout seasons - and we're loaded with players who could - then some very nice things could happen. Even if the Red Sox win a zillion games (and not every team that's projected to win a zillion games actually does so), the Yankees and Rays are vulnerable, and the wild card spot could be wide open.

And if we have a good showing in 2011, then guess how much more attractive we'll be to free agents for 2012?

Unless the O's do more than add some bullpen help, it will take a huge season from Markakis, Wieters and Jones to put the Orioles in the playoffs even if the pitching comes around.

If they do more however maybe only one or two of those players has to break out for that to happen.

What they've done is quite an improvement this is true. But nobody should be patting MacPhail on the back yet, because there is still more they can do to actually have a shot at the playoffs this year as there are still several question marks in that lineup.

After 13 losing seasons, there's no harm in wanting more as a fan...

[ShaneDawg85]

I love how all offseason one can argue against signing Lee, and yet advocate someone like Jim Thome, who is older, been in a much greater decline than Lee, and stands a good chance of being worse than Lee in 2011.

[larrytt]

I like most of this' date=' but I am not convinced Luke Scott is our answer as a No. 4 spot.[/quote']

Among AL players who played 130 or more games in 2010, Scott was 6th in slugging and 7th in OPS. His .535 SLG was better than anyone on the Yankees (including Rodriguez, .506), and would have been #2 on the Red Sox behind Beltre (and ahead of Ortiz's .529). Scott's .902 OPS would have been second on both the Yankees and Red Sox. Even if he falls back to his career average of .503 slugging and .857 OPS, that would have been 13th and 12th in the AL, respectively.

[JTrea81]

I love how all offseason one can argue against signing Lee, and yet advocate someone like Jim Thome, who is older, been in a much greater decline than Lee, and stands a good chance of being worse than Lee in 2011.

Did you not see Thome's season last year? Thome hasn't had an OPS below .840 since 2005. 3.6 fWAR from a DH is pretty darn awesome, especially in 108 GP.

Lee on a 1 year deal is acceptable. I didn't want him signed to a multi-year deal as I wanted the Orioles to find a better solution.

But the Orioles still need more offense, and it is still out there for the taking...

[UMDTerrapins]

Holy crap! I just had this strange moment of clarity. We might be GOOD this year. Not just better, or hopeful to be better than worst. We might be GOOD. Aw man, I'm going to have to take some time to process this. I'm not being a smart ass......it really is just that hard to absorb. This is a GOOD roster. Weird and awesome. I can't wait for the season to start.

[ChaosLex]

I love how Sly has a bunch of posts in this thread and only one has to do with the topic.

Runs his own website and still has time to derail stuff here. Where does he find the time?

To his credit, Trea doesn't have as many people to argue with over there.

[El Gordo]

I think we'll see this lineup against RHSP

BRob 9 HR

Nick 23 HR

Lee 27 HR

Scott 30 HR

Reynolds 38 HR

Wieters 17 HR

Jones 25 HR

Pie 15 HR

Hardy 18 HR

Against LHSP

BRob

Nick

Lee

Reynolds

Scott

Jones

Wieters

Reimold 18 HR

Hardy

:laughlol::smile11::boogie::2yay-thumb::beerchug1:

[DrungoHazewood]

If you actually look and see what they did last year, the age they are as they are still very much in their prime, you will see that these projections are more realistic than knowledgeable, reasonable human beings would think.

I think that makes more sense.

[JTrea81]

I think that makes more sense.

We'll see at the end of the season I guess.

[DrungoHazewood]

After 13 losing seasons, there's no harm in wanting more as a fan...

It's understandable that folks who don't really get baseball would think a team could overcome 13 years of losing by signing a bunch of free agents, spending half a $billion, and trading away everything for a one-off shot at 2011.

[DrungoHazewood]

We'll see at the end of the season I guess.

Exactly like we did last year when you said it was a dead-lock that the Rays were done, and the Yanks and Sox would each clear 100 wins with room to spare.