PECOTA projects O's record to be 82-80

[TGO]

I wonder if this team has a shot to click on offense and break the 800 run barrier. But 760 would be pretty good. Has PECOTA broken down individual projections yet?

As for the pitching I'm not really sure what to think. 758 would be an improvement of 27 runs, which is probably a reasonable expectation, but I would be disappointed.

[Frobby]

I wonder if this team has a shot to click on offense and break the 800 run barrier. But 760 would be pretty good. Has PECOTA broken down individual projections yet?

As for the pitching I'm not really sure what to think. 758 would be an improvement of 27 runs, which is probably a reasonable expectation, but I would be disappointed.

Yes, PECOTA has done individual projections. I gave a quick summary here: http://www.forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106963&highlight=pecota

I'll definitely be disappointed if run allowed are only 27 below last year (assuming that the league average stays the same).

[TGO]

Yes, PECOTA has done individual projections. I gave a quick summary here: http://www.forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106963&highlight=pecota

I'll definitely be disappointed if run allowed are only 27 below last year (assuming that the league average stays the same).

Hmm. Of the guys who will get a lot of at bats I am pretty confident Markakis will do better than that. Roberts may as well but I'm not as optimistic. Ditto Wieters and Jones. Vlad could be worse but he's the only one other than Fox (who won't get that many ABs) who I think is too high.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hmm. Of the guys who will get a lot of at bats I am pretty confident Markakis will do better than that. Roberts may as well but I'm not as optimistic. Ditto Wieters and Jones. Vlad could be worse but he's the only one other than Fox (who won't get that many ABs) who I think is too high.

Here's most of the O's breakout/improve/decline/attrition rates:

LAST    FIRST	TEAM	AGE	OPS	BRKOUT	IMPRV	CLLAPS	ATTRAndino	Robert	BAL	27	0.651	6%	31%	7%	15%Angle	Matthew	BAL	25	0.622	2%	28%	2%	15%Bell	Josh	BAL	24	0.718	8%	23%	4%	26%Fox	Jake	BAL	28	0.803	1%	38%	2%	9%Hardy	J.J.	BAL	28	0.733	2%	42%	4%	12%Izturis	Cesar	BAL	31	0.594	2%	33%	5%	19%Jones	Adam	BAL	25	0.754	6%	51%	4%	24%Lee	Derrek	BAL	35	0.813	1%	41%	4%	11%Markakis	N. BAL	27	0.798	0%	51%	3%	12%Pie	Felix	BAL	26	0.705	1%	52%	0%	17%Reimold	Nolan	BAL	27	0.763	0%	36%	10%	29%Reynolds	M.  BAL	27	0.801	2%	49%	0%	4%Roberts	Brian	BAL	33	0.749	0%	35%	1%	5%Scott	Luke	BAL	33	0.819	1%	31%	1%	5%Snyder	Brandon	BAL	24	0.689	4%	13%	0%	17%Tatum	Craig	BAL	28	0.612	2%	12%	7%	15%Wieters	Matt	BAL	25	0.760	5%	32%	5%	16%

Definitions:

1) Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's plate appearances or a pitcher's opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions.

2) Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

Breakout rates measure change relative to a player's previously-established level of performance. For this reason, a high Breakout score can create a falsely optimistic picture for a player who has a very poor performance record. It is far easier for a player with a baseline of 40 EqR per season to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for a player with a baseline of 100 EQR per season; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher (see also Ugueto Effect).

3) For hitters, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that the player's EqR/27 will decrease by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. For pitchers, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a pitcher's EqERA will increase by at least 25% relative to his baseline EqERA over his past three seasons. High Collapse Rates are indicative of downside risk.

4) Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%.

For some context, here are most of the Indians:

LASTNAME	FIRSTNAME	TEAM	AGE	OPS	BREAKOUT	IMPROVE	COLLAPSE	ATTRITIONBrantley	Michael	CLE	24		2%	32%	6%	23%Brown	Jordan	CLE	27		1%	31%	9%	22%Buck	Travis	CLE	27		1%	33%	3%	8%Cabrera	Asdrubal	CLE	25		4%	49%	6%	18%Carlin	Luke	CLE	30		0%	23%	8%	14%Choo	Shin-Soo	CLE	28		3%	42%	0%	2%Cid	Delvi	CLE	21		1%	2%	0%	2%Crowe	Trevor	CLE	27		2%	26%	6%	15%Donald	Jason	CLE	26		1%	18%	6%	15%Duncan	Shelley	CLE	31		2%	27%	4%	10%Everett	Adam	CLE	34		0%	24%	12%	32%Grudzielanek	Mark	CLE	41		0%	14%	11%	24%Hafner	Travis	CLE	34		2%	34%	4%	7%Hannahan	Jack	CLE	31		1%	36%	3%	10%Hodges	Wes	CLE	26		0%	10%	6%	9%Kearns	Austin	CLE	31		2%	36%	2%	7%Kipnis	Jason	CLE	24		2%	9%	3%	9%LaPorta	Matt	CLE	26		1%	47%	7%	21%Marson	Lou	CLE	25		2%	23%	6%	14%Mills	Beau	CLE	24		2%	6%	2%	10%Phelps	Robert	CLE	24		1%	11%	4%	21%Redmond	Mike	CLE	40		0%	9%	12%	24%Santana	Carlos	CLE	25		5%	46%	4%	15%Sizemore	Grady	CLE	28		1%	56%	0%	4%

(sorry about formatting, don't have time to fix now)

[Dagger420]

link to projections non insider

Wins Losses Div Win % WC % Playoff %

New York Yankees 94 68 41% 25% 66%

Boston Red Sox 92 70 31% 25% 56%

Tampa Bay Rays 90 72 23% 23% 46%

Baltimore Orioles 80 82 4% 7% 11%

Toronto Blue Jays 72 90 1% 1% 2%

Someone got it wrong somewhere. I don't subscribe to PECOTA but I can't find the ESPN article talking about this.

I'm not sure the OP's link. But I have ESPN Insider. But both are typically pretty reliable sites for this kind of info.

I'm glad you posted this....Here are the actual records from 2010:

*-Tampa Bay 96 66 .593 -

y-NY Yankees 95 67 .586 1

Boston 89 73 .549 7

Toronto 85 77 .525 11

Baltimore 66 96 .407 30

So they were pretty spot on for the Yankees and a couple off of the Sox (who even had some pretty unforeseeable disasters)

Other than that, they missed Baltimore and Toronto by a mile and Tampa Bay by 6 wins.

I could have taken educated guesses without even analyzing the statistics and probably been just as close as these "advanced" projections.

Comparing lineups and pitching staffs, I don't see how the Orioles could do any worse than the Red Sox did last year.

I say 89 wins should be whats expected from this team. Anything less and I will be disappointed,

[RVAbird]

Here's most of the O's breakout/improve/decline/attrition rates:

LAST    FIRST	TEAM	AGE	OPS	BRKOUT	IMPRV	CLLAPS	ATTRAndino	Robert	BAL	27	0.651	6%	31%	7%	15%Angle	Matthew	BAL	25	0.622	2%	28%	2%	15%Bell	Josh	BAL	24	0.718	8%	23%	4%	26%Fox	Jake	BAL	28	0.803	1%	38%	2%	9%Hardy	J.J.	BAL	28	0.733	2%	42%	4%	12%Izturis	Cesar	BAL	31	0.594	2%	33%	5%	19%Jones	Adam	BAL	25	0.754	6%	51%	4%	24%Lee	Derrek	BAL	35	0.813	1%	41%	4%	11%Markakis	N. BAL	27	0.798	0%	51%	3%	12%Pie	Felix	BAL	26	0.705	1%	52%	0%	17%Reimold	Nolan	BAL	27	0.763	0%	36%	10%	29%Reynolds	M.  BAL	27	0.801	2%	49%	0%	4%Roberts	Brian	BAL	33	0.749	0%	35%	1%	5%Scott	Luke	BAL	33	0.819	1%	31%	1%	5%Snyder	Brandon	BAL	24	0.689	4%	13%	0%	17%Tatum	Craig	BAL	28	0.612	2%	12%	7%	15%Wieters	Matt	BAL	25	0.760	5%	32%	5%	16%

Definitions:

1) Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's plate appearances or a pitcher's opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions.

2) Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

Breakout rates measure change relative to a player's previously-established level of performance. For this reason, a high Breakout score can create a falsely optimistic picture for a player who has a very poor performance record. It is far easier for a player with a baseline of 40 EqR per season to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for a player with a baseline of 100 EQR per season; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher (see also Ugueto Effect).

3) For hitters, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that the player's EqR/27 will decrease by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. For pitchers, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a pitcher's EqERA will increase by at least 25% relative to his baseline EqERA over his past three seasons. High Collapse Rates are indicative of downside risk.

4) Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%.

For some context, here are most of the Indians:

LASTNAME	FIRSTNAME	TEAM	AGE	OPS	BREAKOUT	IMPROVE	COLLAPSE	ATTRITIONBrantley	Michael	CLE	24		2%	32%	6%	23%Brown	Jordan	CLE	27		1%	31%	9%	22%Buck	Travis	CLE	27		1%	33%	3%	8%Cabrera	Asdrubal	CLE	25		4%	49%	6%	18%Carlin	Luke	CLE	30		0%	23%	8%	14%Choo	Shin-Soo	CLE	28		3%	42%	0%	2%Cid	Delvi	CLE	21		1%	2%	0%	2%Crowe	Trevor	CLE	27		2%	26%	6%	15%Donald	Jason	CLE	26		1%	18%	6%	15%Duncan	Shelley	CLE	31		2%	27%	4%	10%Everett	Adam	CLE	34		0%	24%	12%	32%Grudzielanek	Mark	CLE	41		0%	14%	11%	24%Hafner	Travis	CLE	34		2%	34%	4%	7%Hannahan	Jack	CLE	31		1%	36%	3%	10%Hodges	Wes	CLE	26		0%	10%	6%	9%Kearns	Austin	CLE	31		2%	36%	2%	7%Kipnis	Jason	CLE	24		2%	9%	3%	9%LaPorta	Matt	CLE	26		1%	47%	7%	21%Marson	Lou	CLE	25		2%	23%	6%	14%Mills	Beau	CLE	24		2%	6%	2%	10%Phelps	Robert	CLE	24		1%	11%	4%	21%Redmond	Mike	CLE	40		0%	9%	12%	24%Santana	Carlos	CLE	25		5%	46%	4%	15%Sizemore	Grady	CLE	28		1%	56%	0%	4%

(sorry about formatting, don't have time to fix now)

Before you edited that post, the coding had Markakis and Reynolds at 50% collapse rates. I got scared. Thanks for fixing.

[TakebackOPACY]

I'm glad you posted this....Here are the actual records from 2010:

*-Tampa Bay 96 66 .593 -

y-NY Yankees 95 67 .586 1

Boston 89 73 .549 7

Toronto 85 77 .525 11

Baltimore 66 96 .407 30

So they were pretty spot on for the Yankees and a couple off of the Sox (who even had some pretty unforeseeable disasters)

Other than that, they missed Baltimore and Toronto by a mile and Tampa Bay by 6 wins.

I could have taken educated guesses without even analyzing the statistics and probably been just as close as these "advanced" projections.

Comparing lineups and pitching staffs, I don't see how the Orioles could do any worse than the Red Sox did last year.

I say 89 wins should be whats expected from this team. Anything less and I will be disappointed,

The link flash posted and you referenced does not show the PECOTA team projections. It shows Steve Sommer's simulation projections using PECOTA's individual player projections. PECOTA reached a very different conclusion. PECOTA's last team projection for the O's last year was 62 wins, although I don't have any idea when that projection came out. It was the projection that was still up a week or two ago right before the first 2011 PECOTA team projections came out.

[Frobby]

The link flash posted and you referenced does not show the PECOTA team projections. It shows Steve Sommer's simulation projections using PECOTA's individual player projections. PECOTA reached a very different conclusion. PECOTA's last team projection for the O's last year was 62 wins, although I don't have any idea when that projection came out. It was the projection that was still up a week or two ago right before the first 2011 PECOTA team projections came out.

PECOTA updates during the season, so that 62-win projection was probably done no earlier than Sept. 1. It's not like the PECOTA saw it coming before the season began.

[TakebackOPACY]

PECOTA updates during the season, so that 62-win projection was probably done no earlier than Sept. 1. It's not like the PECOTA saw it coming before the season began.

Fair enough. Thanks. I was worried about 'tone' in my post because I have no idea what PECOTA's last pre-season projection was for the O's. It would make sense that if Sommer got 80-82 out of simulations from their stuff, that they were somewhere around that too. Also, since I had a short kinda sorta debate with flash in this thread, I don't want it to come across like I'm picking at him. Nothing could be further from the truth; I thought he came pretty strong in this thread and I'm not that familiar with him yet otherwise. I'm just reacting to two posts referencing that link as if it were the actual PECOTA team projections.

[KAZ97]

Here's most of the O's breakout/improve/decline/attrition rates:

LAST    FIRST	TEAM	AGE	OPS	BRKOUT	IMPRV	CLLAPS	ATTRAndino	Robert	BAL	27	0.651	6%	31%	7%	15%Angle	Matthew	BAL	25	0.622	2%	28%	2%	15%Bell	Josh	BAL	24	0.718	8%	23%	4%	26%Fox	Jake	BAL	28	0.803	1%	38%	2%	9%Hardy	J.J.	BAL	28	0.733	2%	42%	4%	12%Izturis	Cesar	BAL	31	0.594	2%	33%	5%	19%Jones	Adam	BAL	25	0.754	6%	51%	4%	24%Lee	Derrek	BAL	35	0.813	1%	41%	4%	11%Markakis	N. BAL	27	0.798	0%	51%	3%	12%Pie	Felix	BAL	26	0.705	1%	52%	0%	17%Reimold	Nolan	BAL	27	0.763	0%	36%	10%	29%Reynolds	M.  BAL	27	0.801	2%	49%	0%	4%Roberts	Brian	BAL	33	0.749	0%	35%	1%	5%Scott	Luke	BAL	33	0.819	1%	31%	1%	5%Snyder	Brandon	BAL	24	0.689	4%	13%	0%	17%Tatum	Craig	BAL	28	0.612	2%	12%	7%	15%Wieters	Matt	BAL	25	0.760	5%	32%	5%	16%

Definitions:

...

4) Improvement Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve *at all* relative the weighted average of his EqR/27 or EqERA in his three previous seasons of performance. A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%.

I must be mis-understanding something. how can it predict Wieters to have an .760 OPS but only 32% chance of improving?

[DrungoHazewood]

I must be mis-understanding something. how can it predict Wieters to have an .760 OPS but only 32% chance of improving?

Hmmm... that's a good question. How does Nick have a .798 projection, obviously lower than the average of his last three years, but has a 51% chance of improvement?

Maybe playing time has something to do with it? I'll have to ask the next time Colin Wyers has a chat.

[Frobby]

Hmmm... that's a good question. How does Nick have a .798 projection, obviously lower than the average of his last three years, but has a 51% chance of improvement?

Maybe playing time has something to do with it? I'll have to ask the next time Colin Wyers has a chat.

I think the key sentence is here:

A player who is expected to perform just the same as he has in the past will have an Improvement Rating of 50%.

So, a player with a 51% chance of improvement is basically expected to stay flat. The reason why his weighted mean OPS is below last year is that he is seen as having a 0% chance of a breakout, but a 3% chance of a collapse. So, his odds of improving are better than 50/50, but the odds that he will improve by a lot are less than the odds that he will decline by a lot.

[melankfo]

Check ESPN Insider if you have it.

a small excerpt:

"Player Who Could Disappoint: Matt Wieters. While fandom still waits for the soon to be 25-year-old catcher to make good on his terrific minor-league numbers, PECOTA has stopped looking for a breakout, calling for a .268/.341/.419 season. Names like Ryan Doumit and Ryan Garko are starting to show up among his comparables, two too many mediocre Ryans for a future star."

The "terrific minor league numbers" line seems to have gained official status, but it's not exactly true. Wieters did have great numbers in the season before he came to the majors -- for Frederick and Bowie. But like many others, he found that the biggest jump in the minors is to Triple A, which even some farm directors don't seem to recognize. Why wouldn't it be? It's the biggest jump in average age and experience of the players by far. Sure, there are guys there who will never be more than major league back-ups, but they have played in the majors -- they're more sophisticated, have seen a higher level of competition. So Wieters in his couple of months in Norfolk hit only around .280 UNTIL the last game before the O's called him up. In that game he was 4-5, as I recall, which pushed his average to just over .300, so all the reports said "He was hitting over .300 in Norfolk." Well, sort of. His home runs per AB were also down, and his Ks per AB were up significantly compared to the previous year. In short, he was a pretty average hitter there, not "tearing it up" by any stretch. THis is routinely not recognized, which is why I have some energy about it.

[Frobby]

"Player Who Could Disappoint: Matt Wieters. While fandom still waits for the soon to be 25-year-old catcher to make good on his terrific minor-league numbers, PECOTA has stopped looking for a breakout, calling for a .268/.341/.419 season. Names like Ryan Doumit and Ryan Garko are starting to show up among his comparables, two too many mediocre Ryans for a future star."

The "terrific minor league numbers" line seems to have gained official status, but it's not exactly true. Wieters did have great numbers in the season before he came to the majors -- for Frederick and Bowie. But like many others, he found that the biggest jump in the minors is to Triple A, which even some farm directors don't seem to recognize. Why wouldn't it be? It's the biggest jump in average age and experience of the players by far. Sure, there are guys there who will never be more than major league back-ups, but they have played in the majors -- they're more sophisticated, have seen a higher level of competition. So Wieters in his couple of months in Norfolk hit only around .280 UNTIL the last game before the O's called him up. In that game he was 4-5, as I recall, which pushed his average to just over .300, so all the reports said "He was hitting over .300 in Norfolk." Well, sort of. His home runs per AB were also down, and his Ks per AB were up significantly compared to the previous year. In short, he was a pretty average hitter there, not "tearing it up" by any stretch. THis is routinely not recognized, which is why I have some energy about it.

Wieters had an .890 OPS in Norfolk, after starting the season ice cold. Clearly he did not hit as well there as he did in Frederick and Bowie, but an .890 OPS is nothing to sneeze at. Assuming you are correct about his final game in Norfolk (and I have no reason to doubt you), I don't think that qualifies his numbers at all, because he had been pretty hot for several weeks before that. And, let's not forget that Norfolk isn't a great place to hit.

[now]

Here's a quote from a Yankee blog looking at the 2011 O's lineup:

When you’re able to stack four straight .475-plus SLG hitters in a row — not to mention having every member of your lineup projected to SLG above .400 — that’ll certainly go a long way toward helping the offense out.

Does anyone know how commonly (if ever) a starting lineup has featured all 9 at .400+ SLG?

P.S. I just looked up Toronto 2010; they just missed with Lind at .394. As a team they slugged .454. Not a bad goal for this year's O's, way up from last year's .386.