DiamondScape Scouting preseason top 300 prospects for 2011 MLB Draft

[Stotle]

What I consider to be a solid list of players to watch this spring -- includes around 3000 words worth of "Player Spotlight" summaries for 15 of the players.

Pt 1 - 201-300

Pt 2 - 101-200

Pt 3 - 1-100

[Tony-OH]

Great stuff, we'll know where to go to check out some of these guys before the draft.

[Arthur_Bryant]

What I consider to be a solid list of players to watch this spring -- includes around 3000 words worth of "Player Spotlight" summaries for 15 of the players.

Pt 1 - 201-300

Pt 2 - 101-200

Pt 3 - 1-100

I see Big Bubba is creeping up the Top 10 list.

I gather that he would no longer be a reach for the O's.

[Scrat1]

Thanks Stotle.

Interesting to see how divided the industry is on Springer. Law had him at number two in his list. I'm still hoping for one of the big college pitchers.

[Stotle]

I see Big Bubba is creeping up the Top 10 list.

I gather that he would no longer be a reach for the O's.

I really like him, and the more I went over my video and notes (and spoke with an evaluator I really trust) the more I believe he'll adapt really well (and really quickly) to being a pro. We'll see how the spring goes, but as of right now I don't think he's a reach.

[Stotle]

Thanks Stotle.

Interesting to see how divided the industry is on Springer. Law had him at number two in his list. I'm still hoping for one of the big college pitchers.

I have seen a good amount of Springer and will see him again in two weeks. It's really easy to get swept up in his physicality and tools. I know people with my ML org that would take him #1 overall and not think twice. I don't trust his contact ability yet and think the spring will be telling. He'll need to barrel balls with the new bats, so we'll see how that goes. I wouldn't be surprised if he is #1 or #2 on my mid-season list. I also wouldn't be surprised if he was #21 or #22.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I really like him, and the more I went over my video and notes (and spoke with an evaluator I really trust) the more I believe he'll adapt really well (and really quickly) to being a pro. We'll see how the spring goes, but as of right now I don't think he's a reach.

In terms of his spring, he has nowhere to go but up, I think. When a HS kid spends that little time playing baseball, any time spent on the field is going to smooth out his game, and he will certainly improve against advanced competition.

Of course others will be making a move as well, and that will also affect his position on draft day.

EDIT: Here's a great article on him.

[Stotle]

In terms of his spring, he has nowhere to go but up, I think. When a HS kid spends that little time playing baseball, any time spent on the field is going to smooth out his game, and he will certainly improve against advanced competition.

Of course others will be making a move as well, and that will also affect his position on draft day.

EDIT: Here's a great article on him.

I sort of take the opposite view. I don't think his stock will be affected much by the spring. He already showed his natural athleticism in upside through the summer, and I think the teams that have him high on follow lists are banking on that above all else. Because he gets a late start w/baseball, he may only have about a month of useful games before the draft.

Don't get me wrong, I think SDs and cross-checkers will flock to his games, but I'm just not sold on the performances having much effect. Maybe the interviews?

[Arthur_Bryant]

I sort of take the opposite view. I don't think his stock will be affected much by the spring. He already showed his natural athleticism in upside through the summer, and I think the teams that have him high on follow lists are banking on that above all else. Because he gets a late start w/baseball, he may only have about a month of useful games before the draft.

Don't get me wrong, I think SDs and cross-checkers will flock to his games, but I'm just not sold on the performances having much effect. Maybe the interviews?

I was thinking more about the improvements in his game, but you're right. Those are ready to roll the dice on his tools and potential are probably as ready as they'll ever be.

[Frobby]

Is Hultzen a kid who could creep into the upper tier with a good season? He is ranked 17 here. I heard a lot of good things about this kid when he was in high school.

[Stotle]

Is Hultzen a kid who could creep into the upper tier with a good season? He is ranked 17 here. I heard a lot of good things about this kid when he was in high school.

To be honest, it will be tough because his pure stuff is a clear step behind everyone else. Great polish, great feel, good command of three offerings. But last spring his velo didn't stretch late into starts and he look the summer off so I haven't had a look since May. Strikes me as a Mike Leake type that could really carve up the minors with good command and quality of FB/CH, but probably doesn't project to front-end starter, and there are a number of arms in that top tier that do.

[Jammer7]

When I saw Purke last year, I have to admit his motion scared me. His delivery screams oft-injured reliever with great stuff. I don't think JJ takes him if he's there. Thoughts?

I have not seen Sonny Gray except the occasional video. He may be shorter than you would traditionally like at 1-4, but is he a guy that moves into a ML bullpen quickly and becomes a dominant closer? I don't think JJ takes a closer at 1-4.

Personally, if Rendon and Cole are gone, I think we pick from Daniel Norris, Bubba Starling, Archie Bradley, and Taylor Jungman. With JJ's affinity for players from his hometown area, I would not be surprised to see him pick Starling or Archie Bradley.

[Stotle]

When I saw Purke last year, I have to admit his motion scared me. His delivery screams oft-injured reliever with great stuff. I don't think JJ takes him if he's there. Thoughts?

I have not seen Sonny Gray except the occasional video. He may be shorter than you would traditionally like at 1-4, but is he a guy that moves into a ML bullpen quickly and becomes a dominant closer? I don't think JJ takes a closer at 1-4.

Personally, if Rendon and Cole are gone, I think we pick from Daniel Norris, Bubba Starling, Archie Bradley, and Taylor Jungman. With JJ's affinity for players from his hometown area, I would not be surprised to see him pick Starling or Archie Bradley.

Purke still slings the ball, and his arm slot (I think) makes his fastball and slider more hittable than they should be at times. One plus is that he is adding strength well, which was a bit of a question for some considering his ultra-lean build. His legs look much stronger this year. Injury risk is tough to predict, and you can point to Jungmann's motion as well and find concerns. The only way Purke shifts to relief, however, is if he breaks down. It doesn't look like it will come from a durability standpoint (endurance) but if the arm explodes all bets are off (as with any pitcher). He took the summer off and was on a strict pitch count yesterday, finishing (I think) with just 56 pitches thrown. TCU looks like they will really monitor his workload with his pro career in mind.

I may be in the minority but I think Gray can be a Roy Oswalt type starter. His issue will be staying on top of his power slurve so that it doesn't flatten out. He has zero trouble maintaining big velocity all the way through the ninth inning. He needs to continue to refine his change-up, as well, but I would gladly draft him and keep him as a starter. Wasn't his best yesterday against USD.

I think your list is pretty solid. Bradley, by all accounts, is going to be very tough to sign away from Oklahoma. I'm not sure JJ takes that risk considering comparable talent on the table. Could be same story for starling, though he is a higher ceilinged player, I think, and may be more worth the risk. Jungmann (as mentioned above), has delivery concerns, as well, and could get dinged for that if Purke is dinged for the same reason. Norris seems like a great target but I wonder if JJ stays away from a HS player altogether with the college players available and the recent misses with Rowell, to a lesser extent Hobgood, and to a much lesser extent Snyder.

[Arthur_Bryant]

He took the summer off and was on a strict pitch count yesterday, finishing (I think) with just 56 pitches thrown. TCU looks like they will really monitor his workload with his pro career in mind.

If I were the TCU coach, knowing what Purke passed up from the Rangers, and what he should get from someone this summer... I would be really careful with him too. I would not want to be known as the genius who took a $5MM pitcher and turned him into a spectator.

This brings up a peripheral point, maybe worth a separate thread.

Do you see college programs becoming more aware of workload issues with highly-rated pitchers, if only for recruiting reasons? If I were the parent of a kid with realistic MLB aspirations, I would look closely at a program's history of delivering healthy arms to the pros. The late season craziness makes sense with kids who are probably in their last month of competitive ball. But for someone with Purke's talent and aspirations, the coach is a custodian, and I would want my boy to play for someone who feels the same way.

(And yet TCU, which has had a terrible rep in these matters, still ended up with Purke. Though I am not sure that Purke ever really intended to play college ball.)

[Stotle]

If I were the TCU coach, knowing what Purke passed up from the Rangers, and what he should get from someone this summer... I would be really careful with him too. I would not want to be known as the genius who took a $5MM pitcher and turned him into a spectator.

This brings up a peripheral point, maybe worth a separate thread.

Do you see college programs becoming more aware of workload issues with highly-rated pitchers, if only for recruiting reasons? If I were the parent of a kid with realistic MLB aspirations, I would look closely at a program's history of delivering healthy arms to the pros. The late season craziness makes sense with kids who are probably in their last month of competitive ball. But for someone with Purke's talent and aspirations, the coach is a custodian, and I would want my boy to play for someone who feels the same way.

(And yet TCU, which has had a terrible rep in these matters, still ended up with Purke. Though I am not sure that Purke ever really intended to play college ball.)

I think it's a mixed bag. It's difficult to ask coaches to hamstring themselves considering their job is on the line with w/l records and regional/super-regional/world series appearances.

I think the onus should really be first and foremost on the player and parents to have a meeting of the minds with the coaching staff before signing on. State up front if there are particular issues you are concerned about or specific limits that you feel are important/necessary.

In the heat of a game, a player is almost never going to want to come out if he is feeling good and it's close. Should a coach pull a player against the player's wishes and against the coach's best judgment (taking into account how the player is throwing) solely because the player has reached a certain pitch limit?

In the MiL, I'd say yes. I think there is a little more gray when you are talking about a coach's livelihood on the line.

Personally, I'd want my son to be aware of what his limitations are, and I'd really push him to have enough confidence and a high enough comfort level to state when he thinks he's done. That's perhaps too much responsibility for an 18-20 year old, but it's tough for me to place all the responsibility on the coaching staff (I'm also a bit biased having friends in the collegiate coaching ranks, and knowing scouts with collegiate coaching backgrounds).