Holding the 4th pick, who are we looking at drafting?

[Stotle]

No, no. I intended my post to express that I wasn't putting much weight into the stats, even if it might have seemed the opposite.

Let me restate: Pre-season, based on video and what I've heard, I considered Wong a guy in the 10-20 range. I haven't seen him play this year (nor have I ever!), but nothing in his performance thus far has provided compelling evidence for me to bump him into the top 10 range.

In the absence of any new, compelling reason to upgrade him, I feel more confident about my assessment that he's a reach at 1:4. That's all.

I don't put much weight into 50 ABs at any level, let alone in the amateur ranks.

That makes sense; thanks for clarifying. And I agree with your assessment.

[mark_beckens]

In case anyone hasn't seen him, here is Wong from a weekend ago:

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Anyone know who the lefty he faces in the video? K's him.

[Stotle]

Anyone know who the lefty he faces in the video? K's him.

Ryan Hawthorne. FB 88-89, SL 80, CB 72. Fringe average FB w/some life. SL below average -- soft and gets flat. Slow CB as off-speed below average.

Junior, 2011 Draft eligible.

[eb45]

Wow, Matt Purke has really fallen from arguably the #2 college arm to not even in the discussion any more.

[Stotle]

I don't like the arm angle, Then again, I said the same thing about Chris Sale.

I might even like Jed Bradley and Hultzen as lefty starters before Purke but I'm sure that puts me in the minority.

So far as I can tell, the industry is divided on Purke and Hultzen. Danny certainly helping his case so far this year. Biggest improvement I've seen is with his slider, which he is throwing with much more command. He should definitely be in consideration for top lefty in the draft, and a target for Baltimore.

Purke could drop to the 7-13 range because of bonus demands, health questions and slinging delivery at a low angle (some see him as Randy Johnson and some worry he'll wind up closer to Andrew Miller).

[allstar1579]

I don't like the arm angle, Then again, I said the same thing about Chris Sale.

I might even like Jed Bradley and Hultzen as lefty starters before Purke but I'm sure that puts me in the minority.

I've been a big Hultzen fan for two years. Admittedly influenced slightly by the local thing, I just want him to succeed, but the couple times I've seen him he's had that "it" factor that winners have.

[Stotle]

He's probably a good bet to be a ML starter. Not sure about the ceiling. He's really racking up some big K numbers early in the season. I find his delivery a little odd as well but I'm not sure what to make of it. Looks to me like he steps towards the left, and yet, it doesn't look like he's throwing across his body. His ceiling probably isn't as high as a Gray, Bradley, or Purke but he's probably more ML ready right now and a better bet to reach his ceiling. JMO

Not from a stuff or body standpoint, but from a ceiling/probability standpoint you are probably looking at a Mike Minor or Mike Leake type talent. Might not need much time in the minors, but most likely tops out as a mid-rotation guy. The change-up is very good and the slider is very much improved, but you aren't likely looking at any plus-plus offerings, and maybe just one plus offering when all is said and done.

[RVAbird]

Jungman and Barnes both had complete game victories this weekend with Barnes throwing a shutout. If his last game is any indication, Jungman might be an extreme groundball pitcher. Does anyone have the stats? If so, this could be significant. Can't see the O's drafting the undersized Gray, in spite of the Roy Oswalt mentions. I think he's the least likely of these top guys (Cole, Jungman, Barnes, Bradley) to stick as a ML starter. Mechanics and command are the biggest question with Gray. I think there's a good chance he becomes a ML closer, which isn't a bad fallback. After Cole, Jungman & Barnes would be my top two guys. Edge to Jungman in size and stuff. Edge to Barnes in mechanics and better bet to stay healthy. IF Jungman is there at #4, right now, I see him as an O. Consolation prize, Matt Barnes. Yeah, it's too early to say, but what the heck.

Barnes has significant command issues, as well.

I was concerned about Gray's size at first, but he's won me over. He's shown durability and consistently maintains mid-90s velo into the late innings. I'm confident he'll stick.

[RVAbird]

His walk totals look pretty good. Could you expand on what you mean by significant command issues?

Here's Keith Law's take.

[Sports Guy]

Would anyone have a problem taking JBJ with the 4th pick?

[RVAbird]

Not sure what the rest of the article said but I'll assume he's got some work to do. However, I have seen video of Barnes and his motion looks very fluid (not high effort) and his mechanics look very clean. Gray, on the other hand, looks like a max effort guy who falls off the mound to the 1B side after every pitch. I'll acknowledge that his breaking stuff looks nasty but I think a pitcher like Barnes has a lot better chance to improve his command than someone like Gray.

I like Barnes as a very solid pick in the mid-first round. In a weaker, less pitching heavy draft class (like last year's), I think you could see Barnes go top 10, maybe even top 5.

Basically, with Gray and Barnes, you've got two guys with some command issues, but one has the stuff to be a front-end starter and the other is more likely a mid-rotation guy.

You can certainly debit Gray for frame and effort. My doubts have mostly been assuaged at this point.

[allstar1579]

Not sure what the rest of the article said but I'll assume he's got some work to do. However, I have seen video of Barnes and his motion looks very fluid (not high effort) and his mechanics look very clean. Gray, on the other hand, looks like a max effort guy who falls off the mound to the 1B side after every pitch. I'll acknowledge that his breaking stuff looks nasty but I think a pitcher like Barnes has a lot better chance to improve his command than someone like Gray.

Just to throw it out there...people were saying the same stuff about Lincecum. (@ Gray)

[Stotle]

Would anyone have a problem taking JBJ with the 4th pick?

Love JBJ. Wouldn't take him 4th overall. If I want an OF, I'm taking Starling. If I want best available, I'm taking a college arm. That said, I wouldn't knock a JBJ pick if it came with a significant investment in the 2nd and/or 3rd Round. Would definitely consider an approach where I take him in the top 5 if I had extra picks anywhere.

[Stotle]

Not sure what the rest of the article said but I'll assume he's got some work to do. However, I have seen video of Barnes and his motion looks very fluid (not high effort) and his mechanics look very clean. Gray, on the other hand, looks like a max effort guy who falls off the mound to the 1B side after every pitch. I'll acknowledge that his breaking stuff looks nasty but I think a pitcher like Barnes has a lot better chance to improve his command than someone like Gray.

Your analysis is solid here, I think. Barnes has fluidity, but doesn't hit his checkpoints and can't yet put the ball where he wants to. As I noted earlier, his stuff is likely caught between mid-rotation and true front-end starter. I don't see any reason he won't improve the command, but it's a step that will need to be taken. I don't think it holds down his stock to the extent Keith is noting (and I think it's a little odd that Keith has changed his tune so quickly after having him at #6 pre-season) -- if you like the delivery and believe the velocity is something that will eventually settle and stick in the 92-94 range, you probably aren't knocking him that much for something that should improve over time (command). His value is helped by other arms having not insignificant questions, as well.

Gray is definitely high effort, and definitely comes with command concerns at this point. But he repeats and benefits from two potential future fringe-plus-plus pitches. He really doesn't have to have above-average command for them to play against top tier competition. Now, he does need to get more consistent, but we're talking about someone that has been silly dominant over two summers with Team USA and from about late March on last Spring. He's also an excellent athlete, which helps with the "high effort" concerns with regards to command.

If I had to choose one set of "now" mechanics for random prospect X, it would certainly be Barnes (more fixable on the surface). But I'm not overly concerned with Gray, and Barnes needs that command a lot more than does Gray, given comparative quality of stuff. Barnes needs to be more precise and needs to see the quality bump up a little. Gray just needs to improve to the point he isn't overly susceptible to the big inning. My money would be on Gray.

All that said, I'll reiterate that I'm really confused about how quickly people (Law in this case) are changing their minds about a number of players. I went over my top 100 again today and found some people that I absolutely think are already going to move up or down, but the majority (especially up top) are right around where I had them four weeks ago. I just can't imagine making big changes after four games -- in Barnes's case four road games -- to start the season. Shrug.

[Sports Guy]

Love JBJ. Wouldn't take him 4th overall. If I want an OF, I'm taking Starling. If I want best available, I'm taking a college arm. That said, I wouldn't knock a JBJ pick if it came with a significant investment in the 2nd and/or 3rd Round. Would definitely consider an approach where I take him in the top 5 if I had extra picks anywhere.

Do you think he is a big reach at 4?