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A look at the Orioles, by month


Frobby
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In this thread I'm going to post some monthly results, and update it at the end of every month. The summary immediately below borrows from another thread I started at the end of April.

April

12-13 record

5-5 vs. AL East

7-8 at home

5-5 on the road

0-2 in extra innings

2-1 in one run games

4.16 runs scored per game was 8th in the AL (not as bad as it seemed, helped by the last two days)

.667 OPS was 10th in the AL

.291 OBP was last in the AL

.234 BA was 13th in the AL

.376 SLG was 10th in the AL

1.08 HR/game was 4th in the AL

.937 OPS with RISP was 2nd in the AL

.898 OPS with RISP and 2 outs was 2nd in the AL

14 HR with runners on base was 2nd in the AL

4.47 ERA was 10th in the AL

1.28 HR allowed/game was highest in the AL

4.03 starter ERA was 9th in the AL

5.61 IP/start was 12th in the AL

60% QS rate is 4th in the AL

5.20 bullpen ERA was 13th in the AL

6 save opportunities was lowest in the AL

2 blown saves tied for lowest in the AL (and we won one of the 2)

0.52 errors/game was 5th lowest in the AL

4 unearned runs allowed was 2nd lowest in the AL

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May

12-16 record

2-7 vs. AL East

8-6 at home

4-10 on the road

3-2 in extra innings

5-4 in one run games

3.93 runs scored per game was 10th in the AL

.711 OPS was 8th in the AL

.336 OBP was 4th in the AL

.260 BA was 4th in the AL

.376 SLG was 11th in the AL

0.75 HR/game was 10th in the AL

4.37 ERA was 12th in the AL

1.14 HR allowed/game was 3rd hghest in the AL

5.00 RA was 3rd highest in AL

4.23 starter ERA was 12th in the AL

5.85 IP/start was 13th in the AL

4.59 bullpen ERA was 12th in the AL

8 save opportunities was tied for 9th in the AL

4 blown saves tied for 7th in the AL (we only lost two of those games; the others 2 both came in the 7-6 extra inning win against Seattle on May 10)

0.79 errors/game

14 unearned runs allowed was 2nd highest in the AL

Cumulative through May

24-29 record

7-12 vs. AL East

15-14 at home

9-15 on the road

3-4 in extra innings

7-5 in one run games

4.04 runs scored per game is 10th in the AL

.316 OBP is 10th in the AL

.249 BA is 10th in the AL

.376 SLG is 11th in the AL

0.91 HR/game is 9th in the AL

.829 OPS with RISP is 1st in the AL (but way down from .937 in April)

22 HR with runners on base is tied for 4th in the AL

4.41 ERA is 12th in the AL

1.21 HR allowed/game is 3rd highest in the AL

4.14 starter ERA is 11th in the AL

5.73 IP/start is 13th in the AL

4.88 bullpen ERA is 12th in the AL

8 saves is lowest in the AL

14 save opportunities is lowest in the AL

6 blown saves tied for 4th lowest in the AL (and we won 3 of the 6)

0.67 errors/game was 5th highest in the AL

18 unearned runs allowed is 7th lowest in the AL

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A few thoughts about May compared to April. The team was more patient at the plate (.336 OBP vs. .291), and hit for a higher average (.260 vs. 234). However, the team hit for less power (.75 HR/game vs. 1.14) and didn't hit nearly as well in RISP situations (I don't have an exact figure from May, but the cumulative figure of .829 was well down from .937 at the end of April). Thus, the Orioles actually scored fewer runs per game in May (3.93 vs. 4.14) despite a significantly better BA and OBP.

The offense takes a lot of heat on this board, but the fact is, compared to league average, the pitching is worse. We're 10th in runs scored/game, 12 in runs allowed/game and earned runs allowed per game. And though we are always raging about the bullpen, the starters have the 11th best ERA (12th in April) and they are 13th in IP/start (both cumulatively and in May).

The defense was noticably poor in May, making 22 errors compared to 13 the previous month, leading to 14 unearned runs compared to 4 in April.

Finally, two disturbing trends were (1) our 2-7 record vs. the AL East, compared to 5-5 in April; and (2) our 4-10 road record (fueled by our current 5-game losing streak), compared to 5-5 in April. Those numbers don't bode well.

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A few thoughts about May compared to April. The team was more patient at the plate (.336 OBP vs. .291), and hit for a higher average (.260 vs. 234). However, the team hit for less power (.75 HR/game vs. 1.14) and didn't hit nearly as well in RISP situations (I don't have an exact figure from May, but the cumulative figure of .829 was well down from .937 at the end of April). Thus, the Orioles actually scored fewer runs per game in May (3.93 vs. 4.14) despite a significantly better BA and OBP.

The offense takes a lot of heat on this board, but the fact is, compared to league average, the pitching is worse. We're 10th in runs scored/game, 12 in runs allowed/game and earned runs allowed per game. And though we are always raging about the bullpen, the starters have the 11th best ERA (12th in April) and they are 13th in IP/start (both cumulatively and in May).

The defense was noticably poor in May, making 22 errors compared to 13 the previous month, leading to 14 unearned runs compared to 4 in April.

Finally, two disturbing trends were (1) our 2-7 record vs. the AL East, compared to 5-5 in April; and (2) our 4-10 road record (fueled by our current 5-game losing streak), compared to 5-5 in April. Those numbers don't bode well.

The SP numbers are skewed by major meltdowns from Bergy Tillman and Arrieta, as are the HR numbers. What puzzles me is the much improved OBP but fewer runs scored per game.
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  • 5 weeks later...

June

11-14 record

3-6 vs. AL East

7-8 at home

4-6 on the road

1-2 in extra innings

4-2 in one run games

4.32 runs scored per game was 5th in the AL

.792 OPS was 4th in the AL

.338 OBP was 4th in the AL

.286 BA was 3rd in the AL

.454 SLG was 3rd in the AL

1.40 HR/game was 1st in the AL

4.46 ERA was 13th in the AL

1.28 HR allowed/game was highest in the AL

4.96 RA was 2nd highest in AL

5.54 starter ERA

5.27 IP/start

2.96 bullpen ERA

10 save opportunities was tied for 3rd in the AL

4 blown saves tied for 2nd most in the AL (but we only lost one game on a blown save)

12 unearned runs allowed was 4th highest in the AL

.68 errors per game

Cumulative through June

4.13 runs scored per game is 9th in the AL

.323 OBP is 6th in the AL

.261 BA is 5th in the AL

.402 SLG is 6th in the AL

1.06 HR/game is 5th in the AL

.764 OPS with RISP is 3rd in the AL (but way down from .828 in May)

33 HR with runners on base is 6th in the AL

4.42 ERA is 13th in the AL

4.86 RA is 13th in the AL

1.23 HR allowed/game is highest in the AL

4.43 starter ERA is 13th in the AL

5.59 IP/start is last in the AL

4.21 bullpen ERA is 11th in the AL

8 saves is lowest in the AL

24 save opportunities is 13th in the AL

10 blown saves tied for 5th most in the AL (but we have only lost 4 games as a result of a blown save)

31 unearned runs allowed is 4th highest in the AL

52 errors (.67 per game)

Edited by Frobby
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June

11-14 record

3-6 vs. AL East

7-8 at home

4-6 on the road

1-2 in extra innings

4-2 in one run games

4.32 runs scored per game was 5th in the AL

.792 OPS was 4th in the AL

.338 OBP was 4th in the AL

.286 BA was 3rd in the AL

.454 SLG was 3rd in the AL

1.40 HR/game was 1st in the AL

4.46 ERA was 13th in the AL

1.28 HR allowed/game was highest in the AL

4.96 RA was 2nd highest in AL

5.15 starter ERA was 12th in the AL

5.65 IP/start

3.31 bullpen ERA

10 save opportunities was tied for 3rd in the AL

4 blown saves tied for 2nd most in the AL (but we only lost one game on a blown save)

12 unearned runs allowed was 4th highest in the AL

.68 errors per game

Cumulative through June

4.13 runs scored per game is 9th in the AL

.323 OBP is 6th in the AL

.261 BA is 5th in the AL

.402 SLG is 6th in the AL

1.06 HR/game is 5th in the AL

.764 OPS with RISP is 3rd in the AL (but way down from .828 in May)

33 HR with runners on base is 6th in the AL

4.42 ERA is 13th in the AL

4.86 RA is 13th in the AL

1.23 HR allowed/game is highest in the AL

4.43 starter ERA is 13th in the AL

5.59 IP/start is last in the AL

4.21 bullpen ERA is 11th in the AL

8 saves is lowest in the AL

24 save opportunities is 13th in the AL

10 blown saves tied for 5th most in the AL (but we have only lost 4 games as a result of a blown save)

31 unearned runs allowed is 4th highest in the AL

52 errors (.67 per game)

In spite of weak arguments to the contrary, it is all about the pitching.

Pretty astonishing to me that MacPhail has been preaching pitching (correctly IMO) since his arrival and they're still pretty much cumulatively the worst pitching team in the American League. That is absolutely inexcusable to me.

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April: 4.16 runs/game, .234/.291/.376, 1.08 HR/G

May: 3.93 runs/game, .260/.336/.376, 0.75 HR/G

June: 4.32 runs/game, .286/.338/.454, 1.40 HR/G

April: 4.47 ERA, 4.03 starters, 5.80 relievers, 5.61 IP/start

May: 4.41 ERA, 4.14 starters, 4.88 relievers, 5.73 IP/start

June: 4.46 ERA, 5.54 starters, 2.96 relievers, 5.27 IP/start

The starting pitching really let us down this month, big time. The offense and the bullpen did a good job.

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Great point Hank.

Here's some cherry picking stats to munch on:

April:

4.03 starter ERA was 9th in the AL

5.61 IP/start was 12th in the AL

60% QS rate is 4th in the AL

5.20 bullpen ERA was 13th in the AL

May:

4.14 starter ERA is 11th in the AL

5.73 IP/start is 13th in the AL

4.88 bullpen ERA is 12th in the AL

June:

5.54 starter ERA was 12th in the AL

5.27 IP/start

2.96 bullpen ERA

What stands out to me is that our bullpen is apparently improving each month. Now, it may just be addition by subtraction (losing guys like Rupe, Accardo, and having guys like Berken and Gonzo start to actually figure it out) but it's at least a promising sign of something.

What's killing us though (obviously) is the starting pitching. I really don't see what we can do about it at this point though. :(

Anyone see Duchscherer lately?

Edited by Aglets
Frobby stat correction
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June:

5.15 starter ERA was 12th in the AL

5.65 IP/start

3.31 bullpen ERA

What stands out to me is that our bullpen is apparently improving each month. Now, it may just be addition by subtraction (losing guys like Rupe, Accardo, and having guys like Berken and Gonzo start to actually figure it out) but it's at least a promising sign of something.

Please note that I had to correct the June stats, and it's even worse for the starters (5.54 ERA, 5.27 IP/start) and better for the relievers (2.96 ERA). The bullpen was fueled by:

Johnson 1.00 ERA in 18.0 IP

Uehara 1.35 ERA in 13.1 IP

Gonzalez 1.64 ERA in 11.0 IP

Berken 2.16 ERA in 8.1 IP

Gregg 2.45 ERA in 11.0 IP

Simon 2.61 ERA in 10.1 IP

Excellent contributions by all those guys. Accardo (9.81 ERA in 7.2 IP) and Rapada (4.91 ERA in 3.2 IP) didn't hold up their end of the bargain, and they are both gone.

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Top Orioles hitters in June:

Reynolds .299/.450/.662, 8 HR, 16 RBI

Hardy .362/.409/.686, 9 HR, 18 RBI

Jones .282/.324/.534, 7 HR, 17 RBI

Markakis .351/.371/.459, 2 HR, 14 RBI

Those four really carried the offense, with everyone else at .715 OPS or below.

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  • 1 month later...

July

7-20 record

3-11 vs. AL East

4-6 at home

3-14 on the road

0-0 in extra innings

2-2 in one run games

4.00 runs scored per game was 10th in the AL

.714 OPS was 9th in the AL

.295 OBP was 13th in the AL

.238 BA was 10th in the AL

.419 SLG was 5th in the AL

1.48 HR/game was 2nd in the AL

6.33 ERA was 14th in the AL (last by 1.67 runs per game)

1.48 HR allowed/game was highest in the AL

6.70 RA was 2nd highest in AL

7.17 starters' ERA

5.13 bullpen ERA

4.79 IP per start for the month.

8 save opportunities was tied for 11th in the AL

3 blown saves tied for 3rd most in the AL (but an 8-way tie)

20 unearned runs allowed was 2nd highest in the AL

.67 errors per game

Cumulative through July

4.10 runs scored per game is 9th in the AL

.316 OBP is 9th in the AL

.255 BA is 7th in the AL

.406 SLG is 6th in the AL

1.17 HR/game is 4th in the AL

.729 OPS with RISP is 7th in the AL (but way down from .828 though May and .764 through June)

46 HR with runners on base is 5th in the AL

4.84 ERA is 14th in the AL (by 0.37 runs)

5.33 RA is 14th in the AL

1.30 HR allowed/game is highest in the AL

5.12 starter ERA is 14th in the AL

5.39 IP/start is last in the AL (by .37 innings/game)

4.54 bullpen ERA is 12th in the AL

32 save opportunities is tied for last in the AL

13 blown saves tied for 6th most in the AL

55 unearned runs allowed is 2nd highest in the AL

70 errors (.67 per game)

Edited by Frobby
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Good research Frobby. I like your dedication. I have lamented in the past that our record against the AL East not only deflates the O's but also inflates our rivals. The numbers are ugly, but as years past have taught us August and September have been murderous for the O's in recent years. I hope this team can keep it respectable for the final two months and we must find a way to compete with the AL East.

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