2012 payroll

[Crazysilver03]

When Brob gets healthy you look to deal him and Nick for prospects.

First, that is a loaded statement, concerning BROB's health, but secondly, you won't be able to deal him.

[fansince71]

First, that is a loaded statement, concerning BROB's health, but secondly, you won't be able to deal him.

I don't see why not, everybodys tradeable.

[Crazysilver03]

I don't see why not, everybodys tradeable.

Who would want to acquire Roberts, at both his salary and health concerns, and actually give up something valuable?

[waroriole]

I don't see why not, everybodys tradeable.

Why would you trade two guys who are performing poorly? Why trade at their lowest point? It makes absolutely no sense.

[fansince71]

Why would you trade two guys who are performing poorly? Why trade at their lowest point? It makes absolutely no sense.

I would say Nick still has a ton of trade value even with his slow start, plus I expect him to be a lot better around the trade deadline.

Roberts we might have to eat some salary.

[wildcard]

Can they afford to let a guy go for nothing who just had a 900 OPS last year?

Its not about what Scott did in the past. Its about what Scott can do now and what the O's think he will do in the future.

Scott has to hit to keep his job. Glad he hit a homer tonight. Hope he keeps driving in runs. Basically, he has to if he wants to continue to be a part of the team.

[Bradysburns]

Man. This is depressing.

[MikeAD]

Trading Nick right now is silly. His on the field play is down and his salary is going up. This is a situation where you either have a long term contract and hope he brings it back together, or you pay 1/3 of his salary and take back nothing special.

I am not saying that Nick is not valuable or not a good player, but at least this year, and into next if the performance is as is, we can't do too much.

[Sports Guy]

A look at what our payroll looks like, by position, as of right now for next season:

1st-???

2nd- BRob: 10 million

SS- ???

3rd- Reynolds: 7.83 million

LF- ???

CF- Jones: 6 million*

RF- Nick: 12.35 million

C- Wieters: 2 million*

DH: Scott: 6.5 million**

Pie: 1.3 million*

Reimold: 425K*

Andino: 550K*

SP:

Guthrie: 7.5 million*

BMat: 500K***

Britton: 400K

Arrieta: 400K

Tillman: 400K****

BB: 400K****

Pen:

Gregg: 5.8 million

JJ: 1.6 million*

Berken: 400K

Koji: Has option..number not listed

*estimated

** Scott wouldn't be offered arb right now and if he would, he basically gets no raise....Obviously his situation depends on a lot of factors right now

*** Not sure what BMat's contract is...He is making over 1M this year but he signed the ML deal and I think bonuses are tied into that...So, not sure if he is getting league minimum next year or if his deal next year will be based on the 1.3M he is making this year.

**** Tillman and BB, unless traded, will fill some role on the team next year I would assume, just not sure where yet.

If all of the listed players are on the team next year, they will be paid in the area of 65 million IMO.

Now, you have other questions, besides the ones I just mentioned:

1) Is Guthrie an Oriole next year?

2) Will Reimold and Pie split time in LF or do they get someone else?

3) Who fills the pen that is currently on the team/in the system?

The O's payroll is roughly 87 million right now and that is before players meeting any kind of bonuses. If the Orioles are "stretching the payroll" right now, I don't think its safe to assume that we go into next season with a payroll much higher, if higher at all, than what we are seeing right now.

If that is the case, then the team has somewhere in the range of 20-25 million to spend on 1st, SS, LF, rotation and pen.

With those options, you can put Klein and BB in the pen, Tillman in the rotation, LF can be platooned with Reimold and Pie. That leaves you more money to spend on SS and 1st...Hopefully you can re-sign Hardy for 7ish million, leaving you 15ish million for first base...So, if you really want to stretch things, maybe you can add Fielder, especially if they backload the deal some where he makes more money when the BRob and Markakis contracts come off the books(assuming Nick isn't further extended).

But then, you are essentially adding Fielder to the current team and making no further uppgrades and just hoping that the players we have get better.

Also remember, the 65M doesn't include Koji..His option would probably be at least 3M, which is his salary this year.

Add Fielder...you have now spent 88-90 million and still need:

1) SS

2) LFer

3) Starter

4) BP

5) Bench

This team would need to spend probably another 20ish million on top of getting Fielder to fill those holes.

Who thinks PA will, not only give an overweight first a 7-8 year deal for 23-25 million a year but also bump the payroll from a "over their heads" 87 million to 110 million?

[MikeAD]

Add Fielder...you have now spent 88-90 million and still need:

1) SS

2) LFer

3) Starter

4) BP

5) Bench

This team would need to spend probably another 20ish million on top of getting Fielder to fill those holes.

Who thinks PA will, not only give an overweight first a 7-8 year deal for 23-25 million a year but also bump the payroll from a "over their heads" 87 million to 110 million?

And where do you go from there? If PA does that (lets assume he does, for the argument) its just going to keep going up and up as the contracts of the current players increase in yearly salary. So you have to do one of two things, get low-salary players to fill some or all of those 5 holes (and lets be honest, theres more holes than just these five, even if you count the bench as one) or you get one year players (or give one year deals to Hardy or something) that just put you in the same but worse position going into the next season. Best case scenario there is you find some player who needs a rebound year, get him cheap, and he actually rebounds, and you get this lucky every year.

We've got to make the smart moves here. Roberts may not be tradeable, so you have to make the decision of what to do with him. You have to eat a lot of salary to move him, but maybe its worth it? Same with Markakis. Hes still a good player IMO, but the trade value isn't as high as it could be. Guthrie is your best bet to move salary and get young players, so you have got to do that one. But what else is there after that? Johnson in the Pen, thats still a "small" salary. Hope you can move Gregg (not huge value there)? I think it is 100% essential that you get Guthrie's contract off the books and get a nice return for him. Shame we didn't move Scott last season, thats some money we could have had.

So, as you point out, not only is there little Payroll flexibility, but its also highly unlikely that PA make that huge leap in payroll from 2011 to 2012. In addition to that, if we do bring in Fielder, and we get whatever bottom of the barrel we can get to round out the lineup/team, what then? Is it worth it to spend 110 Million bucks on a team that doesn't have the young players needed to have long term success? Its not enough to make us contenders, and the money would be better spent in developing a better overall organization.

Shame on you, SG, for pointing out the obvious and making me sound like a negative nancy.

[Crazysilver03]

$20M on top of Fielder seems like a high estimate.

Past that, a decision needs to be meed in the near term about Hardy. If they want him back (and they should), extend him now.

Why does that need to be done right now? Why can't that wait until the off-season?

[GoldGlove21]

Bingo!!!!

We saw this with the Rays a bit last year. You only have so much money and you have to decide how you wasnt to play things. Right now the Orioles should be looking to build around the young pitching, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. Guys like Scott and Guthrie should be moved soon. They are not likely to be a major part of the long term success of the team, but they do have some value. Guthrie is really the guy the Orioles should move to fill a hole or two.

The Orioles should also look to dump Gregg on a contender if given the opportunity. Uehara is also a guy who could help a team and bring back a good prospect.

[GoldGlove21]

They could and they would be bidding against other teams. The Orioles would have a little more leverage and show some faith in the guy. I agree that if you want to extend the guy, you do it now. If you are not going to extend him then why not deal him at the deadline?

[GoldGlove21]

The solution would be to move guys like Guthrie, Scott, and Gregg. That alone would likely free up close to $20M needed to sign Fielder for a year. I understand signing Hardy, but he is not free right now so you are talking a $2M raise for Hardy? I think Klein is a guy who could help the bullpen next year as well.

[Crazysilver03]

The solution would be to move guys like Guthrie, Scott, and Gregg. That alone would likely free up close to $20M needed to sign Fielder for a year. I understand signing Hardy, but he is not free right now so you are talking a $2M raise for Hardy? I think Klein is a guy who could help the bullpen next year as well.

While these ideas work in theory, I doubt the Orioles even consider trading Gregg after signing him to that contract. I wouldn't even try and get something back if we could just dump it in August on a waiver claim. As of now, the plan is for Klein to move into the rotation next year.

An idea that could work though, is attempting to trade Gonzalez while eating a lot of the contract. I was surprised that Qualls managed to get traded last year so there might be hope for Gonzalez.