AM on Int'l spending

[Frobby]

I think what most of us can agree on is this: The last place we should be spending money, and in some cases draft picks, is for mid-tier free agents. Spending 10's of millions of dollars on free agents like Wigginton, Atkins, Izturis, Gonzalez, Gregg, Lee and Guerrero is worse than spending it on overslot draft bonuses or young international free agents or investing it on better player development.

Spending what the Orioles have spent on mid tier free agents over the last 13 years versus spending it on young player acquisition and development is a big contributing factor to where the organization is at now, both at the major and minor league levels. There is no good excuse for having the Orioles farm system ranked so low right now given the high draft choices we have had in the last 13 years.

You can argue whether investing in international free agents is a good idea, but it is difficult to argue that spending the money on the veteran free agents that the Orioles have spent money on is a better idea.

It would be interesting to study what the Orioles have spent on mid-tier free agents compared to other teams over the last 10 years or so, and what yield the've gotten compared to other teams. Of course, you have to define who is a mid-tier free agent, which can be tricky. And shouldn't you also include mid-tier players who were signed to extensions or received in trades?

[Sports Guy]

It would be interesting to study what the Orioles have spent on mid-tier free agents compared to other teams over the last 10 years or so, and what yield the've gotten compared to other teams. Of course, you have to define who is a mid-tier free agent, which can be tricky. And shouldn't you also include mid-tier players who were signed to extensions or received in trades?

For those most part, any FA that is signed for that 4-9 million dollar area, isn't going to be a good signing...I think you would basically find that out for any team.

[Frobby]

For those most part, any FA that is signed for that 4-9 million dollar area, isn't going to be a good signing...I think you would basically find that out for any team.

Hmm, so maybe if we had paid DLee $10 mm instead of $7.25 it would have been a better signing!

When I have more time, I will try to look into this a bit more, using your $4-9 mm as the definition of "mid-tier." Of course, there is a big difference between a one-year deal in that annual salary range, and a three-year deal in that annual salary range; and I think it varies a bit by position as well.

[Sports Guy]

Hmm, so maybe if we had paid DLee $10 mm instead of $7.25 it would have been a better signing!

When I have more time, I will try to look into this a bit more, using your $4-9 mm as the definition of "mid-tier." Of course, there is a big difference between a one-year deal in that annual salary range, and a three-year deal in that annual salary range; and I think it varies a bit by position as well.

Well look at some of the 3 year deals for 8-9 million a year...Those Aubrey Huff contracts. When do they ever pan out?

There is a reason they are mid tier talents.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think what most of us can agree on is this: The last place we should be spending money, and in some cases draft picks, is for mid-tier free agents. Spending 10's of millions of dollars on free agents like Wigginton, Atkins, Izturis, Gonzalez, Gregg, Lee and Guerrero is worse than spending it on overslot draft bonuses or young international free agents or investing it on better player development.

Spending what the Orioles have spent on mid tier free agents over the last 13 years versus spending it on young player acquisition and development is a big contributing factor to where the organization is at now, both at the major and minor league levels. There is no good excuse for having the Orioles farm system ranked so low right now given the high draft choices we have had in the last 13 years.

You can argue whether investing in international free agents is a good idea, but it is difficult to argue that spending the money on the veteran free agents that the Orioles have spent money on is a better idea.

It would be interesting to total up what the O's have spent on what you might call discretionary free agents since 1998. I woulnd't necessarily include the big ticket guys, the Tejadas and Javys and Belles. Just the players you could reasonably have replaced with internal options or low-cost AAAA/Ken Phelps All Star types.

My initial guess would be $15-$20M a year, which is more than 99.9% of entire Rule 4 budgets for any team for any year.

Edit: I see Frobby already beat me to this...

[BrunoCherrytown]

It would be interesting to study what the Orioles have spent on mid-tier free agents compared to other teams over the last 10 years or so, and what yield the've gotten compared to other teams. Of course, you have to define who is a mid-tier free agent, which can be tricky. And shouldn't you also include mid-tier players who were signed to extensions or received in trades?

The only yield that matters is in the standings. We know what their free agent strategy, lack of international presence, and bargain budget drafting (post-1st round selection of course), and subpar player development/scouting department has yielded compared to the rest of baseball.

I think a study of this regard judging mid-tier free agents would just result in the same answer we all believe it would be before starting to crunch the numbers.

Also, it seems that many people (not saying you - just general statement) are quick to discount the fact that you don't have to just sign players out of the DR that end up being superstars. With 30% of the rosters being of international origin, that's alot of utility players, relievers, mid-tier talents, etc. You need all of them to fill up a roster. And they all don't cost $4million buscone-boosted signing bonuses. But you need to have an actual presence in the country to be able to identify the great prospects. We seem to be holding our heads up high on Schoop, but how many Schoops do the Yankees seem to always have in their system? They may be ridiculous free agent spenders, but they are never short of international prospects it seems in their system.

So just brushing off drastically upping the international budget because there isn't a massive ratio of superstars to signings doesn't really make sense in my opinion.

The international market is the only market the O's can realistically compete in at the moment in my opinion. We can't stockpile additional draft picks as well as other teams. And there are a finite amount of picks you get every year without comps. We don't seem to be as aggressive with overslotting picks as even our friends in D.C. or our NL version in Pittsburgh, judging by this year's draft.

We can't sign legit free agents for any various number of "insert the excuses."

The international market is a cheaper and admittedly more volatile version of the free agent market. You can sign as many people as you want as long as you have the funds and the system in place to identify the talent. No draft pick limitation. No loss of draft picks for signing premium prospects.

To play it like the O's have is inexcusable and, in my unprofessional opinion, moronic.

It's much cheaper overall than the draft due to those unknowns. I mean how many $20k-$50k draft picks become legit talents compared to international signings of those levels. I mean small numbers on both pools, but it seems more likely to catch a diamond in the rough internationally than at the backend of the draft.

I just think this is a perfect example of MacPhail being stuck in a time of the game that's been forgotten.

On another, and completely unrelated note, when do you think we'd ever have a popular Orioles Blog or site make a positive song about our GM (warning - this is one of the most awful songs ever) :

http://bottomofthefourth.blogspot.com/2011/06/alex-anthopoulos-song.html

It shows you how much the fanbase will respect a GM who actually does know how to "build from within" instead of just issuing vague and unsubstantiated talking points about it.

Of course, playing Devil's Advocate, it only has 842 views on YouTube. I saw this mentioned on MLBTradeRumors so I figured they were a bigger "Jays" blog. And just to restate...it's an awful song.

[MikeAD]

Well look at some of the 3 year deals for 8-9 million a year...Those Aubrey Huff contracts. When do they ever pan out?

There is a reason they are mid tier talents.

This really needs to be noted. Signing these players is something a really good team does, as role players. A good team signs a Nick Swisher as a role player. The Orioles sign a Nick Swisher as their big off season acquisition that is supposed to be an impact player. Now maybe Swisher isn't the best example here but insert any of the players we've signed (Atkins, Wigginton, Lee). They have varying degrees of talent but they are either declining or just not good. In the right role they are fine but not as a main acquisition.

[Stotle]

I don't think everybody does overslots -- certainly, not everyone does it to the same extent. I can't comment on what will happen in the next CBA, but if the Orioles think Rule 4 spending is more efficient, then they should actually spend the money there. I agree with SG that while the O's have been near the top in Rule 4 spending, that has mostly been driven by the fact that they have had a top 5 pick for five years in a row. They should be spending on overslots early and often, if they don't want to spend internationally.

Boston and Toronto are agressive with overslots. Yankees in the mid-single digit rounds generalyl grab a handful of overslots but stay close to slot early. Tampa goes overslot but generally restrains themselves with spending.

[Frobby]

Also, it seems that many people (not saying you - just general statement) are quick to discount the fact that you don't have to just sign players out of the DR that end up being superstars. With 30% of the rosters being of international origin, that's alot of utility players, relievers, mid-tier talents, etc. You need all of them to fill up a roster. And they all don't cost $4million buscone-boosted signing bonuses. But you need to have an actual presence in the country to be able to identify the great prospects.

Well, we do have a presence in the country. We have a DSL team, we have an academy in a relatively new facility, we have a couple of scouting type people there, and we sent some of our U.S. based pro scouts there for periods of time. If I am not mistaken, we have ramped up our presence there significantly over the last several years. We have increased our signings there over the last few years. I am not saying that what I have described is enough, but it is far from nothing. I don't know how it compares to most other teams.

[Flosman]

Well, we do have a presence in the country. We have a DSL team, we have an academy in a relatively new facility, we have a couple of scouting type people there, and we sent some of our U.S. based pro scouts there for periods of time. If I am not mistaken, we have ramped up our presence there significantly over the last several years. We have increased our signings there over the last few years. I am not saying that what I have described is enough, but it is far from nothing. I don't know how it compares to most other teams.

I think I am starting to believe that this international drum beat might be nothing but screams in the wilderness. Frobby is correct. We have a new facility, some new people and have made the largest signings we have ever made down there the past few years. The clubs best Bull pen arm is an international signing.

I did some research on if we had actual players in the system that were age appropriate for the level they were and were international signings. Here is what I found.

GCL 17 players all signed during the AM era. Several actually doing well even though the apparent view is at this level that does not matter.

NY Penn 7 players again a couple of interesting guys.

SAL 2 no guys appear to be nuggets.

CAL 2 Schoop being a 19 real prospect in this group.

We have a team with the 3rd best record out of 33 teams in the DSL. Another surprising thing I found is the DSL version of the O's are being taught patience at the plate. Most of the regulars that are doing anything are walking around 10% of the time or better.

The last 3 seasons there have been 53 international players make their debut in the MLs. So for the O's to be ahead of the game you would have produce only one player every year. I don't think there is any evidence the O's are not doing what it takes to produce players at that level out of what the AM regime is doing. What is more important in my view is are we producing above ML regulars out of our efforts. We have several players that look like they could be that type of player headed by Schoop.

The truth about how AM plays the international market is the proof will be in the results and there is no way to judge this as of yet. AMs signings would be 21 or younger at best and it is not reasonable to expect players to be much farther along than Schoop is at this time.

What I as a apologist (as SG would call me) have come to believe is the O's are active in the international market. We actually look to be bring in similar numbers of players from this market as we do from the draft. We don't know if we are getting results yet, we do know we have not signed any of the guys that the PR efforts of the Buscone system presented for their annual raping of ML baseball teams.

[Frobby]

I think I am starting to believe that this international drum beat might be nothing but screams in the wilderness. Frobby is correct. We have a new facility, some new people and have made the largest signings we have ever made down there the past few years. The clubs best Bull pen arm is an international signing.

I did some research on if we had actual players in the system that were age appropriate for the level they were and were international signings. Here is what I found....

The truth about how AM plays the international market is the proof will be in the results and there is no way to judge this as of yet. AMs signings would be 21 or younger at best and it is not reasonable to expect players to be much farther along than Schoop is at this time.

What I as a apologist (as SG would call me) have come to believe is the O's are active in the international market. We actually look to be bring in similar numbers of players from this market as we do from the draft. We don't know if we are getting results yet, we do know we have not signed any of the guys that the PR efforts of the Buscone system presented for their annual raping of ML baseball teams.

What an excellent, thoughtful post. And again, I am not saying we are taking the right approach in the DR and elsewhere internationally, I just think that the knee-jerk reaction that failing to spend big on high-bonus DR guys must mean a lack of commitment to international players is off base. The situation is much more complicated and nuanced than that and there is no obvious correct answer. But when you have been a losing team for 14 years, people are going to assume your decisions are stupid until proven otherwise. And that's fair enough.

P.S. -- "you must spread some reputation around before giving it to Flosman again."

[Sports Guy]

What an excellent, thoughtful post. And again, I am not saying we are taking the right approach in the DR and elsewhere internationally, I just think that the knee-jerk reaction that failing to spend big on high-bonus DR guys must mean a lack of commitment to international players is off base. The situation is much more complicated and nuanced than that and there is no obvious correct answer. But when you have been a losing team for 14 years, people are going to assume your decisions are stupid until proven otherwise. And that's fair enough.

P.S. -- "you must spread some reputation around before giving it to Flosman again."

Good thing that we aren't just talking about spending high dollars on the top talent.

Bottom line, they aren't doing nearly enough. Apologize for them, make excuses or whatever...But just don't complain when they continue to be a joke or a franchise and nothing but a doormat to the rest of the league.

It just boggles my mind that anyone would make excuses for this team and give them any kind of the benefit of the doubt. How poor do they need to be for people to open their eyes on a consistent basis?

[Flosman]

Good thing that we aren't just talking about spending high dollars on the top talent.

Bottom line, they aren't doing nearly enough. Apologize for them, make excuses or whatever...But just don't complain when they continue to be a joke or a franchise and nothing but a doormat to the rest of the league.

It just boggles my mind that anyone would make excuses for this team and give them any kind of the benefit of the doubt. How poor do they need to be for people to open their eyes on a consistent basis?

I am asking you a real question. In the Latin market what would you deem has progress?

[Sports Guy]

I am asking you a real question. In the Latin market what would you deem has progress?

I already said....they need to be spending about 2M more.

[DrungoHazewood]

I am asking you a real question. In the Latin market what would you deem has progress?

You didn't ask me, but I'd say a regular flow of talent into the system, and regular graduation of players to the majors, including the occasional star. And the real benchmark, not just progress over prior failure, would involve numbers of players coming to the majors and having success at a rate well above major league average.

The Orioles have to do that in multiple areas of amateur acquisition to have any chance in the AL East.