We need Prince Fielder as much as any team needs a single player!

[Roll Tide]

But it is a risk factor, especially for a position player. Fielder is already a negative defensive player and a negative baserunner. That certainly won't improve with age, and years of hauling around 270+ pounds on a sub-6' frame will take its toll on his body. Most players with similar builds didn't age well, and the few that did (say, Smokey Burgess, Matt Stairs, Gates Brown) were in limited roles off the bench.

To say you have little or no concern about his weight would be odd. And citing fat pitchers doesn't seem terribly relevant.

I know he'd be expensive for a DH .... But it would be a way to save on the wear & tear ...And perhaps you could put a weight clause in his contract.

[Say O!]

I think it's very likely that Fielder has a choice to make. Does he,

Accept the largest total $$$ amount?

OR

Accept the highest average annual value?

Given concerns over Fielder's aging curve, there will be teams that offer a 5 year deal at higher average annual value than a team offering 7+. So which one will he take?

Cliff Lee took the second option. Prince could likely take a 5 year deal, and then set himself up for another payday. But Boras is his agent, and he generally prefers to take the most dollars on the table. If there is anything short term in the deal, Boras likes player opt out clauses.

Might the O's offer the most per season, but a team like the Nationals offer the most total dollars?

[El Gordo]

Mo Vaughn says hello and keep in mind that BMI does not hold much weight for actually weight lifters. Fielders has a lot of muscle under some of that fat. He is a big guy, but he would be huge if he dropped his body fat% IMO.

I'm curious. With all your concern over Fielder's weight, is there any contract you would offer him?

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm curious. With all your concern over Fielder's weight, is there any contract you would offer him?

Not that you addressed this to me, but despite my concerns over his weight and his aging/health, I'd still be ok with a 4-5 year deal at around $20M per.

At this point I'm not sure most rational franchise-building techniques are really applicable. They won't or can't build a farm system that can compete with the Yanks/Rays/Sox, so why not try fat first baseman and a lot of praying for Tillman, Matusz, Bundy, et al?

[Say O!]

Not that you addressed this to me, but despite my concerns over his weight and his aging/health, I'd still be ok with a 4-5 year deal at around $20M per.

At this point I'm not sure most rational franchise-building techniques are really applicable. They won't or can't build a farm system that can compete with the Yanks/Rays/Sox, so why not try fat first baseman and a lot of praying for Tillman, Matusz, Bundy, et al?

Don't forget Machado, Schoop and the promise that one day Wieters will unleash hellfire on the AL East...

[Say O!]

Was doing some thinking this afternoon about why Fielder's perceived value is so much higher than his sabermetrically inclined stats (WAR, primarily) would indicate.

And then I stumbled onto his WPA (win probability added). Fielder is regularly near the top of the league in that category.

Fielder (WAR / WPA)

2007 5.1 / 4.98

2008 1.7 / 3.18

2009 6.4 / 7.79

2010 3.4 / 2.16

2011 3.6 / 4.32

For reference, a WPA above 4 is consistently top 10 in the majors, a WPA above 2 is top 30. With that context, Prince's WPAs indicate his influence over games is perhaps higher than his WAR would indicate.

Now, of course there is a slew of research stating that WPAs are not predictive. But it's pretty compelling to see how Fielder is has been top 10 in the league in 3 seasons, top 20 in one, and top 30 in his "down" year in terms of win probability added.

To some extent this same disconnect between WAR and WPA exists for Ryan Howard. But Prince seems to have a larger disparity and better WPA numbers than Howard starting in 2007.

[GoldGlove21]

I'm curious. With all your concern over Fielder's weight, is there any contract you would offer him?

I actually started the thread and do not feel that Fielders weight is an issue. I stated in an earlier post what I would pay for Fielder. If you held a gun to my head I would probably do 7/$155M, but I would prefer 6/$138M. I would be hard pressed togo 7/$175 because I do think there is some risk with Fielder. The upside trumps the risk for me.

I think an NL team takes even more of a risk, but I do think the Nationals are a team that couldmake a huge statement and have some payroll flexibility for the next 2-3 years. If you believe the Tex reports then I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nats go 7/$168M or something like that.

[GoldGlove21]

Without going through the stats I did say that Fielder had an X-Factor to him that other players do not have. I think there is going to be 2-3 seasons where he leads the MVP voting in the next 5 years.

[OriolesandTerps]

Hell, we didn't even offer Mussina an extension because we didn't feel he was worth and we saw how much more the Yankees gave him!

This, this, and this. Man, like you I hate like heck the current state of the Orioles. This team plays like Peter Angelos runs a business. Not very well. It was Angelos, who told Mussina, "I am not going to negotiate with you until we see how this season goes". It ticked him off. Angelos is the root of all of our problems. He chose this GM, his chose this coach (as well as all of the previous ones). At some level they agreed to do things the PA way. It is ALL his fault. IF he knew what he was doing, hell, even if he didn't, and he wanted something better, he would have an entirely different organization approach, top down. He is the commander. It is his ship. He is content running it on the rocks. Period. This organization WILL not change with him at the helm. Period.

[OriolesandTerps]

Sorry for the rant and change of topic in my previous post. I am just frustrated. I have zero faith that PA will offer enough money to Fielder. It is like we are in a never ending spin. Where very little of our home grown talent pans out and very few premium FA's will play for us. Again, apologies.

[JTrea81]

Prince with RISP this season:

.333/.468/.536/1.004 with 21 RBI

[GoldGlove21]

I hate it when the Orioles offer contracts to free agents that are fair market value based on other offers by quality teams. Usually we offer a little less and when we miss out on a guy we said that we tried. If the Tigers ate giving a guy 5/$60M we can not expect to get him for 5/$56, we likely need to be at 5/$66.5. Make him turn down the extra $1.5M per year. If he walks then go back to a fan base and say you offered more dollars over the same number of years.

[TakebackOPACY]

Prince with RISP this season:

.333/.468/.536/1.004 with 21 RBI

JTrea, why did you post this? You know better.

2010 RISP: .233/.451/.301/.753

Career Totals: .281/.388/.540/.928

Career Totals w/ RISP: .274/.423/.470/.893

NOTE: This is not a post for or against Prince Fielder. He's good with runners in scoring position. He's good with runners not in scoring position.

[baker-fletcher]

I find the talk that if the Os sign Fielder it would be a mistake b/c it would hamstring payroll flexibility ironically funny.

We've heard that sentiment every offseason but didnt us not signing Tex and others in the past make it possible for us to sign a Fielder type player this offseason?

Eventually you have to pony up to the big boy table, put some money down and roll the dice.

If we dont sign a big money guy this offseason, when are we ever going to pull the trigger?

If we dont sign or make a real agressive offer at Fielder this offseason, my dedication will just disappear. Even if they overpay for Fielder, show me something that says the Os and Angelos are going to live up to their end of the deal.

Besides, MacPhail promised to buy the bats. Time to pony up.

[DrungoHazewood]

I find the talk that if the Os sign Fielder it would be a mistake b/c it would hamstring payroll flexibility ironically funny.

We've heard that sentiment every offseason but didnt us not signing Tex and others in the past make it possible for us to sign a Fielder type player this offseason?

Eventually you have to pony up to the big boy table, put some money down and roll the dice.

If we dont sign a big money guy this offseason, when are we ever going to pull the trigger?

If we dont sign or make a real agressive offer at Fielder this offseason, my dedication will just disappear. Even if they overpay for Fielder, show me something that says the Os and Angelos are going to live up to their end of the deal.

Besides, MacPhail promised to buy the bats. Time to pony up.

There's little doubt that signing Fielder would be a long-term mistake that would potentially limit the ability of the team to field a quality lineup. It's difficult to be a winning team when you're giving $25M a year to a guy who's likely to be a 3-4 win player going forward into a potentially rapid decline.

But when the organization has proven time and time again that they're not willing to do what's necessary to build a self-sustaining pipeline of young talent, what choices do you have besides a Hail Mary pass to a fat first baseman, or continuing to give a 50% effort?