Orioles closing in on Japanese lefty Tsuyoshi Wada (Update: Wada is signed)

[weams]

There are many Japanese pitchers who have come here and not done well.

As a matter of fact, there's probably a good chance of that.

It's the New Market Efficiency.

[Enjoy Terror]

There are many Japanese pitchers who have come here and not done well.

Lots of Americans have come to the MLB and not done well. There's a few Asian pitchers who have come here and have done very well. I'd say Koji is one, Saskaki, Kuo, Kuroda, Saito, Okajima, Matsusaka (when healthy)... out of a total of roughly 35 Japanese pitchers in HISTORY to play in the MLB... i'd say the number that have pitched decently is pretty high.

[RVAbird]

It just seems that way, I guess. I don't have a real argument here - it's mainly an emotional reaction. He just seems to hate on the O's more than most teams. He's really hating on Angelos, but it comes across as hating on the entire organization. At a certain point, it's just ganging up. It gets old.

Anyway, this is derailing the thread, let's move on.

EDIT: To be fair, I did hear him on 105.7 a few months back and he had some constructive things to say in pointing to the Orioles' development of young pitching. He was questioning why the prospects weren't succeeding and I think that's extremely valid. Duq has mentioned that as well, so he's onto something there. And he didn't do any bashing.

Fans of just about every team say the same thing about Law. In fact, he re-tweets comments from fans saying as much on a daily basis.

Law is brusque; there's no doubt about that. Sometimes he's wrong, but in this instance he's basically right in his evaluation of Wada's fastball. The pitch should sit mid-80s in MLB without much natural movement. It may play up due to deception/command, but that's a below average fastball any way you slice it. There are plenty of high schoolers around the country with better velo and natural movement. Wada will just have to command the pitch with precision to be successful. He brings an above average, if inconsistent, slider and a show-me change that, with about 5 MPH separation, won't do much to keep hitters off balance.

To me, that's not a repertoire that screams success in the AL East. Maybe he can craft and grit his way into consistently going 5+ IP with success, but I'm not betting on it. Out of the pen he could sit upper 80s, and I think with his delivery he could have success in that role. I'm not sure it's worth it to invest 2/8+ on a guy of that profile, but it's not monumentally stupid, and he gives you SP depth in case of injuries.

[MrOrange82]

Fans of just about every team say the same thing about Law. In fact, he re-tweets comments from fans saying as much on a daily basis.

Law is brusque; there's no doubt about that. Sometimes he's wrong, but in this instance he's basically right in his evaluation of Wada's fastball. The pitch should sit mid-80s in MLB without much natural movement. It may play up due to deception/command, but that's a below average fastball any way you slice it. There are plenty of high schoolers around the country with better velo and natural movement. Wada will just have to command the pitch with precision to be successful. He brings an above average, if inconsistent, slider and a show-me change that, with about 5 MPH separation, won't do much to keep hitters off balance.

To me, that's not a repertoire that screams success in the AL East. Maybe he can craft and grit his way into consistently going 5+ IP with success, but I'm not betting on it. Out of the pen he could sit upper 80s, and I think with his delivery he could have success in that role. I'm not sure it's worth it to invest 2/8+ on a guy of that profile, but it's not monumentally stupid, and he gives you SP depth in case of injuries.

Nice summary.

My first thought upon hearing of the Orioles' interest is that they must have been looking at him for the pen. He just doesn't seem to have the tools to be successful as a ML starter. But...is that not the case? If they're planning on throwing him into the rotation, it might not be monumentally stupid when taking price into account, but it doesn't seem all that bright, either.

Basically asking so I don't have to read through this entire thread.

[RVAbird]

Nice summary.

My first thought upon hearing of the Orioles' interest is that they must have been looking at him for the pen. He just doesn't seem to have the tools to be successful as a ML starter. But...is that not the case? If they're planning on throwing him into the rotation, it might not be monumentally stupid when taking price into account, but it doesn't seem all that bright, either.

Basically asking so I don't have to read through this entire thread.

Yeah, I have the same questions. I haven't read Duquette's comments on the signing yet. It's my understanding that Wada was holding out for a chance to start in the big leagues, so my guess is that Baltimore promised him at least a shot at the rotation in the spring. They paid him more than you'd like for a reliever with no ML track record, so this is probably a Koji-like situation.

[lint06]

They are also interested in Win Soon Soon.

Got a genuine LOL from me.

[El Gordo]

Lots of Americans have come to the MLB and not done well. There's a few Asian pitchers who have come here and have done very well. I'd say Koji is one, Saskaki, Kuo, Kuroda, Saito, Okajima, Matsusaka (when healthy)... out of a total of roughly 35 Japanese pitchers in HISTORY to play in the MLB... i'd say the number that have pitched decently is pretty high.

Compare the % of success of Japanese pitchers in the MLB since 1964 to say that of pitchers from the PCL.

[Enjoy Terror]

Compare the % of success of Japanese pitchers in the MLB since 1964 to say that of pitchers from the PCL.

If it a challenge, define success?

[MrOrange82]

Compare the % of success of Japanese pitchers in the MLB since 1964 to say that of pitchers from the PCL.

That'd be akin to attesting to the accuracy of an assessment of a player's offensive potential based on a 20-game sample.

[Capn Vivi]

I compiled stats from a couple pitchers who've played in Japan in recent years and found success. I figured I'd take a look at how they fared against one another and then how they each reacted to the major leagues. Namely, I'm referring to Colby Lewis and Koji Uehara. I didn't put Hiroki Kuroda's numbers in because he's always been fairly mediocre relative to the league. His peripherals have always been good but his case is unusual in that his numbers pretty much translated one for one to the majors.

Koji put up the following numbers in Japan before becoming an IFA and arriving in Baltimore:

30 2005 9-12 3.32 ERA, 187.1 IP, 164 H, 24 HR, 22 BB, 145 K, 0.990 WHIP, 7.88 H/9, 1.15 HR/9, 1.06 BB/9, 6.97 K/9, 06.59 K/BB

31 2006 8-9 3.21 ERA, 168.1 IP, 157 H, 24 HR, 21 BB, 151 K, 1.060 WHIP, 8.39 H/9, 1.28 HR/9, 1.12 BB/9, 8.07 K/9, 07.19 K/BB

32 2007 4-3 1.74 ERA, 62.0 IP, 47 H, 4 HR, 4 BB, 66 K, 0.820 WHIP, 6.82 H/9, 0.58 HR/9, 0.58 BB/9, 9.58 K/9, 16.50 K/BB

33 2008 6-5 3.81 ERA, 89.2 IP, 90 H, 11 HR, 16 BB, 72 K, 1.180 WHIP, 9.03 H/9, 1.10 HR/9, 1.61 BB/9, 7.23 K/9, 4.50 K/BB

Meanwhile, Colby Lewis put up these numbers during his exile:

28 2008 15-8 2.68 ERA, 178.0 IP, 151 H, 12 HR, 27 BB, 183 K, 1.000 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 6.78 K/BB

29 2009 11-9 2.96 ERA, 176.1 IP, 156 H, 13 HR, 19 BB, 186 K, 0.992 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.0 BB/0, 9.5 K/9, 9.79 K/BB

After coming to the majors Koji put up this career line (mostly as a RP, of course):

3.13 ERA, 175.2 IP, 146 H, 23 HR, 26 BB, 188 K, 140 ERA+, 0.979 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 1.3, BB/9, 9.6, K/9, 7.23 SO/K

In a few ways, Koji's been more unhittable in the majors than in the NPB.

Meanwhile, Colby Lewis has also been impressive (but as a starter):

30 2010 12-13, 3.72 ERA, 201.0 IP, 174 H, 21 HR, 65 BB, 196 K, 121 ERA+, 1.189 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 3.02 K/BB

31 2011 14-10, 4.40 ERA, 200.1 IP, 187 H, 35 HR, 56 BB, 169 K, 101 ERA+, 1.213 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 3.02 K/BB

Comparatively, we've got Tsuyoshi Wada, our most recent acquisition, putting up pretty impressive numbers (particularly 2011!) throughout his career:

26 2007 12-10 2.82 ERA, 182.0 IP, 168 H, 15 HR, 42 BB, 169 K, 1.154 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 4.02 K/BB

27 2008 8-8 3.61 ERA, 162.0 IP, 167 H, 12 HR, 36 BB, 123 K, 1.253 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 3.42 K/BB

28 2009 4-5 4.06 ERA, 84.1 IP, 72 H, 13 HR, 24 BB, 87 K, 1.138 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 3.63 K/BB

29 2010 17-8 3.14 ERA, 169.1 IP, 145 H, 11 HR, 55 BB, 169 K, 1.181 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 3.07 K/BB

30 2011 16-5 1.51 ERA, 184.2 IP, 145 H, 7 HR, 40 BB, 168 K, 1.000 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 4.20 K/BB

Now I'd LOVE for us to sign Chen Wei-Yin, but I consider it almost too exciting to get my hopes up:

22 2008 7-6 2.90 ERA, 114.2 IP, 101 H, 7 HR, 33 BB, 107 K, 1.169 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 3.24 K/BB

23 2009 8-4 1.54 ERA, 164.0 IP, 113 H, 10 HR, 40 BB, 146 K, 0.933 WHIP, 6.2 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.65 K/BB

24 2010 13-10 2.87 ERA, 188.0 IP, 166 H, 21 HR, 49 BB, 153 K, 1.144 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 3.12 K/BB

25 2011 8-10 2.68 ERA, 164.2 IP, 138 H, 9 HR, 31 BB, 94 K, 1.030 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 3.03 K/BB

I found it hard to wrap my head around all these numbers until I noticed all of these guys pitched in the same league in 2008. Instead of making you look back and forth, I put their stats down together (Including Darvish's stats if you're interested ):

The number before their names is their age.

28 Lewis 15-8 2.68 ERA, 178.0 IP, 151 H, 12 HR, 27 BB, 183 K, 1.000 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 6.78 K/BB

33 Koji 6-5 3.81 ERA, 89.2 IP, 90 H, 11 HR, 16 BB, 72 K, 1.180 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 1.6 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 4.50 K/BB

27 Wada 8-8 3.61 ERA, 162.0 IP, 167 H, 12 HR, 36 BB, 123 K, 1.253 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 3.42 K/BB

22 Chen 7-6 2.90 ERA, 114.2 IP, 101 H, 7 HR, 33 BB, 107 K, 1.169 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 3.24 K/BB

21 Darvish 16-4 1.88 ERA, 200.2 IP, 136 H, 11 HR, 44 BB, 208 K, 0.897 WHIP, 6.1 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.73 K/BB

Looking at these numbers, clearly Darvish is head and shoulders above his competition, even when he was 21! Regardless, Chen shows incredible promise as a 22 year old at that level (Statistically, it was Uehara's worst season).

Now looking at 2011, it's interesting to compare Darvish, Chen and Wada:

24 Darvish 18-6 1.44 ERA, 232.0 IP, 156 H, 5 HR, 36 BB, 276 K, 0.828 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 0.2 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 7.67 K/BB

30 Wada 16-5 1.51 ERA, 184.2 IP, 145 H, 7 HR, 40 BB, 168 K, 1.000 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 4.20 K/BB

25 Chen 8-10 2.68 ERA, 164.2 IP, 138 H, 9 HR, 31 BB, 94 K, 1.030 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 3.03 K/BB

Besides the fact that Chen was battling injuries, he was still putting up impressive numbers at a young age and Wada was right there with Darvish fighting for the ERA title! (Neither would actually win it, but would come in second and third respectively).

Looking at these numbers all together, I'd say that Chen and Wada each present a different kind of risk. Wada may be better suited to working out of the bullpen and Chen battled injuries last year.

I'd be ecstatic if we were able to pick up Chen also (hopefully at less than $6m/year), just because of the QUALITY depth we would then have at the position. If we could acquire Floyd without losing Matusz then we would be in very good shape. I'm very happy to see Duquette spreading the risk around. I feel like a MacPhail offseason wouldn't be nearly as aggressive.

[NewMarketSean]

Lots of Americans have come to the MLB and not done well. There's a few Asian pitchers who have come here and have done very well. I'd say Koji is one, Saskaki, Kuo, Kuroda, Saito, Okajima, Matsusaka (when healthy)... out of a total of roughly 35 Japanese pitchers in HISTORY to play in the MLB... i'd say the number that have pitched decently is pretty high.

Fair enough, but we pick from the best Japanese pitchers there are.

[Scrat1]

Since I'm pretty sure the team is going to suck regardless, I hope we sign Chen and bring back Koji, so at least we have a nice Japanese subplot.

[luismatos4prez]

Darvish is going to be great in the MLB wherever he goes. I'd love to be here, but I recognize that it's unrealistic.

I love the fact that Duquette is putting us on the map in the rest of the world though. If you can't win bidding wars for guys like Pujols and Fielder, you have to find other places to get players. Duquette obviously understands that. I'm more excited about what Wada means for the future than Wada himself. He seems like he is eventually going to be a bullpen guy if you ask me.

I'm sure Angelos is loving the thought of getting money poured into us from new fans in the Asian market if we keep up this pace.

[OrioleWay27]

Wada could end up an 8th inning guy like Koji if they sign Chen. I think they'll give him every opportunity to start but if the workload ends up too much, I could see him become pretty valuable out of the pen.

That's what makes this such a quality, relatively low-risk/high reward signing. He can potentially help in two major areas of need for the Orioles, and he can still be valuable in the bullpen even if he can't cut it in the rotation. Excited about this and hoping the O's go hard after both Chen and Darvish.

[Moose Milligan]

Playoff tickets baby!